Model Output Discussion - 30th November onwards

[Mucka]

I really hope the UKMO is wrong, it seems the Northerly gets shunted East every run and a glancing Northerly won't do the trick as far as snow showers are concerned but at least the 144 chart holds promise as has been mentioned but it's not just a Scandi ridge that looks promising, an Arctic high is pretty much formed as well. 

Not only this we are starting to see signs of HLB in the GFS ensembles as well so December could yet be turn out to be cold and relatively blocked overall if it comes to fruition and we get blocking in the right areas..

The outlook is anything but zonal at the moment anyway so let's hope the trend continues but first can I have my Northerly back please, I was looking forward to that.

 

C'mon ECM

Edited December 1, 2013 by Mucka

[SW Saltire]

GFS 12z progressive and mild as usual in FI & positive will not let an easterly develop come hell or high water!

Oh no! If you think the GFS was kicking and screaming (it still is!) with regard to coming round to the idea of a northerly then an easterly.... This could be a long winter... Edited December 1, 2013 by SW Saltire

[MR EXTREMES]

well well well did someone say were into the realiable timeframe for this cold spell???

its also worth noting that ian brown did say this was a very possible outcome looks like hes on the money return to much milder air after next weekend at this rate maybe before the weekend has even started as for nice start to winter im not so sure it is to be honest its been a horror story for nearly a month now.

 

vortex vortex vortex its running the show this winter.

and the models really cant cope with the strength and depth of this vortex another near miss for some but others have something wintry to look forward to I don't think I can spend winter with all these downgrades as ian f said they didn't use the ecm to be honest the ukmo is the best and the others are just absolutely rubbish.

 

absolutely bang on ian brown.

[SW Saltire]

well well well did someone say were into the realiable timeframe for this cold spell???its also worth noting that ian brown did say this was a very possible outcome looks like hes on the money return to much milder air after next weekend at this rate maybe before the weekend has even started as for nice start to winter im not so sure it is to be honest its been a horror story for nearly a month now. vortex vortex vortex its running the show this winter.and the models really cant cope with the strength and depth of this vortex another near miss for some but others have something wintry to look forward to I don't think I can spend winter with all these downgrades as ian f said they didn't use the ecm to be honest the ukmo is the best and the others are just absolutely rubbish. absolutely bang on ian brown.

Is your time machine free tomorrow?

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

well well well did someone say were into the realiable timeframe for this cold spell???its also worth noting that ian brown did say this was a very possible outcome looks like hes on the money return to much milder air after next weekend at this rate maybe before the weekend has even started as for nice start to winter im not so sure it is to be honest its been a horror story for nearly a month now. vortex vortex vortex its running the show this winter.and the models really cant cope with the strength and depth of this vortex another near miss for some but others have something wintry to look forward to I don't think I can spend winter with all these downgrades as ian f said they didn't use the ecm to be honest the ukmo is the best and the others are just absolutely rubbish. absolutely bang on ian brown.

As far as i know winters just started theres a long way to go yet all aboard the model rollercoaster

[Cheshire Freeze]

well well well did someone say were into the realiable timeframe for this cold spell???

its also worth noting that ian brown did say this was a very possible outcome looks like hes on the money return to much milder air after next weekend at this rate maybe before the weekend has even started as for nice start to winter im not so sure it is to be honest its been a horror story for nearly a month now.

 

vortex vortex vortex its running the show this winter.

and the models really cant cope with the strength and depth of this vortex another near miss for some but others have something wintry to look forward to I don't think I can spend winter with all these downgrades as ian f said they didn't use the ecm to be honest the ukmo is the best and the others are just absolutely rubbish.

 

absolutely bang on ian brown.

 

Poor post. So many things wrong with it I don't even know where to start. You can pick any frame of the GFS 12z run and not at one point is the 'vortex running the show'. By the end of the run it's been shoved around that much it's distorted to the max.

 

Ian Brown has been banging the drum of zonal for weeks. If we have seen zonality thus far I must have missed it because I certainly can't recall it. If you think Ian has been correct thus far, you either a) haven't understood what he has been saying or b ) have not been in the UK.....or even possibly c) you can't read synoptic charts or maybe even option d) you understand the charts but won't let them come in the way of a bit of controversy or a bit of realism. Take your pick.

Edited December 1, 2013 by CreweCold

[Captain Shortwave]

Maybe we should wait for the ECM to come out before we unleash the toys on the model discussion thread 

Feels like yesterday evening all over again. 

Edited December 1, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[draztik]

 absolutely bang on ian brown.

couldn't agree more, i tend to watch out for his posts, along with BA & SnowKing's. All invaluable to this community.

[Frosty.]

There is good news though, the GEFS 12z mean looks as solid as the 6z mean with the arctic spell persisting through saturday, further east...no downgrade there.

[Mucka]

GFS 12z ensembles very interesting. Just look at that split now with a good few going for a slower pattern and a strong Northerly while the rest go for a quicker pattern and a weaker Northerly. There could well be some legs in this yet even though I rate UKMO and I wouldn't be surprised to see ECM stick with a slower evolution.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=255&y=76

[Gavin Hannah]

GFS throwing a shortwave (Spanner)  in the works on the 12Z. Prevents HP building into Greenland and forcing arctic air down as per 06z run.

 

 

That shortwave needs to be further east instead of north of us.. The only good news is that's it's probably at least 48 hours before the final detail of that LP is nailed on for certain.

Edited December 1, 2013 by IBringTheHammer

[Snowman.]

GFS 12z progressive and mild as usual in FI & positively will not let an easterly develop come hell or high water!

 

 

I'm not sure about this comment.

 

12z is a very good run as far as standards goes.

 

Unless you would rather have a 3 days toppler rather than wait a little longer for something more prolonged and severe to set up?

[Smiler1709]

Why people rely on each model run astounds me, the gfs changes it's mind more times than a women getting ready for a night out.

[snowice]

untill there is cross model agreement nothing is certain!

[SW Saltire]

Oh I wish I was born earlier,I could have lived through the early 2000s with zonality. I mean, according to certain people's predictions we should have had zonality for recent weeks. The loch froze over a few days ago, I am a new member of this forum so bare with me but I never knew a loch could freeze over with SWly winds and strong rain and very mild uppers of course I'm sure more knowledgeable members could help me out

[shedhead]

Perhaps not unsurprisingly the 12 runs are now starting to do pretty much what they do with most projected northerlies, namely edge the pattern east and in turn shorten the window of opportunity. Still need to see what ECM goes for in an hour or so, but GFS and UKMO have most definately driven a couple of rather large nails into the cold spell coffin lid this evening, with a slow return to zonality also now starting to gather some momentum during week 2 of Dec. 

[pip22]

After the cold snap, I think the High pressure moving north-east to Scandinavia and merge with the Siberian High. Massive low at the west of UK tries to push in. I think December is going to be a interesting month for weather.

 

 

I think we maybe heading for a battleground scenario as the high to the east getting established. I really hope this setup will come in fruition. It is a short term pain for long term gain!

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Oh no the hangman will be busy.

 

Wait for the ECM before knicker twisting. The UKMO could quite easily be a rouge run. Even if it isn't no-one would have died and it will still be cold come the end of the week.

[Long haul to mild]

Can we just clear something up please?

Ian F merely stated earlier that the assessment from the 00Z suite was to use a blend of models including the GFS at T132 as their favoured solution. He clearly stated that it was a "point in time" matter that could change. It is also 5 days away.

It therefore beggars belief that some posters are claiming that Ian's comments mean that the MetO have somehow ditched the ECM and are now so deeply in love with the GFS that they are considering a honeymoon in the Maldives with it.

No-one has "won" anything; the Northerly that may or may not happen is a number of days away and as for after that, it's anyone's guess but I'm willing to bet it won't be mild and zonal for some while yet.

Edited December 1, 2013 by Chalk Serpent

[BlueHedgehog074]

It's quite interesting that the 12Z UKMO has the amplified High Pressure system further East next Friday than what the 00Z ECMWF has for Saturday (even though the 12Z UKMO is around 12 hours ahead)...

 

You will see that the 00Z ECMWF run has the High Pressure to the West of the UK on Saturday with an unstable looking Northerly flow clinging on over the UK:

 

Where as on this UKMO run for the day before, it has the High Pressure making more influence over the United Kingdom with the main Northerly pushed out to our East:

 

This would mean that while the ECMWF is eager for its dear beloved Northerly to hang on over the UK for next Friday and Saturday, the UKMO treats the potent UK Northerly as if it's a bug that must be stamped on. (though, to be fair, it would probably still show a little bit of the potent Northerly affect some Eastern areas late on Thursday and possibly into early Friday morning).

 

While I do personally think the UKMO may be being a little bit progressive pushing that High East, I do perhaps think at the same time, the ECMWF could be holding on to its Northerly for a little bit too long. It probably will be a case in the end that we may just end up with a half-way solution between what the UKMO shows and what the ECMWF shows, although may be, at the same time, with the Northerly being more and more North-Westerly - just like what the GFS 12Z run shows for Friday. (It does, however, cut off the North-Westerly flow quite quickly with some troughing from the Low to the West/North-West trying to flatten the High Pressure ridge to our West/South-West).

 

As such, that Low (and probably the other Lows out to our North-West) will probably likely still need watching, including the track they take, as they could have an affect on how long this potential (and possibly snowy) Northerly or North-Westerly lasts.

Edited December 1, 2013 by DiagonalRedLine

[MR EXTREMES]

looking at the ukmo again at t144 there is possibility that the low pressure to our east does slide south and the high over the uk perhaps ridging into the gap to our ne scandi area although its a long shot to be honest.

 

but the ukmo barely even has a northerly but the north and into ne and eastern Europe very cold.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Look, I posted about a week ago stating that the synoptic set up at the time (with Pacific ridging) wouldn't last and that it was merely a holding pattern until a pattern change took place which was most likely imminent. Since then we've seen amplification in the N Atlantic flow and a resultant bitter northerly modelled- this as a knee jerk response to the Pacific ridging. Given the state of NWP modelling over the past few days (along with the ensemble suites) it's highly likely we're seeing the pattern change initiation within the NWP. Have we been given any clue as to what this pattern change may entail? The answer is yes- Scandinavian height rises with a possibility of some kind of retrogression beyond week 2. Is this pattern change certain? Well the pattern change is but the easterly isn't. One thing that remains highly unlikely (at present) is traditional zonality, despite what some people will have you believe.

Edited December 1, 2013 by CreweCold

[SW Saltire]

After the cold snap, I think the High pressure moving north-east to Scandinavia and merge with the Siberian High. Massive low at the west of UK tries to push in. I think December is going to be a interesting month for

weather.

 

 

I think we maybe heading for a battleground scenario as the high to the east getting established. I really hope this setup will come in fruition. It

is a short term pain for long term gain!

Agreed, as Crewe cold mentioned previously, since this is being shown on the GFS it is very intriguing. Of course watch the GFS flatten the high every single time with shouts for 'zonality' being heard.

If it came off, the snow would have a longer lasting effect than in the epic late march spell that simply had a sun that was very strong.

I add the caution, that this is only one possible outcome, I suppose raging zonality is an equally plausible option although I ask, for how long?

[stodge]

With ECM imminent, I'm reminded that the route to very cold often starts with very mild and GFS has once again thrown out an interesting FI scenario featuring blocking to the NE and with the vortex over eastern Siberia.

 

The other point is that today is December 1st (last time I looked). There have been so many years when to be even thinking of cold at this time was considered madness. 2010 notwithstanding, many Decembers have been mild or even very mild, Yes, we had a very cold two or three days in December 2012 but that was followed by four weeks of mild and often wet conditions with not even a frost in my part of the world.

 

I won't lose a lot of sleep over a missed N'ly now as I know I have three months and, let's be fair, most winters are remembered for 10-14 days of winter weather not 90. We will have mild spells, rainy spells and even zonal spells in the next three months.

 

We may even have a remarkable March like we did this year.

[A.J]

Quite a few posts have been reported....absolutely sick and tired of seeing utterly irrelevant point scoring as well as off topic one-liners despite repeated requests from the moderating team to adhere to the thread title......at the risk of being labelled 'sarcastic' if it's not model output related discussion, then it doesn't belong in here......*sigh*