Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Ian Brown is the most realistic poster on this forum, no disrespect of course to anyone else, but Ian says zonal for nov to late Jan, thats nearly always right, then tends to forecast less zonal Feb to Apr, nearly always right, and of course Ian is a knowledgeable scientific poster

 

anyone know where Ian is? he is using the 'like' button but not posting, hoping he isn't banned, the most realistic poster for god's sake!

Edited December 29, 2013 by IrememberAtlantic252

[Costa Del Fal]

Ian Brown is the most realistic poster on this forum, no disrespect of course to anyone else, but Ian says zonal for nov to late Jan, thats nearly always right, then tends to forecast less zonal Feb to Apr, nearly always right, and of course Ian is a knowledgeable scientific poster

 

anyone know where Ian is? he is using the 'like' button but not posting, hoping he isn't banned, the most realistic poster for god's sake!

Oh dear.

 

Thats like saying its usually Spring from March to June, Summer from June to September....

 

You get the rest....

[cheese]

I'm not sure what some people get out of windy wet weather, as a mildie it hasn't been an enjoyable spell of weather the last few weeks and yet more to come it would seem. The last 2 weeks have not been all that mild either, mostly single digit max temps.

Thankfully, people don't have to justify their weather preferences to you - or anyone else. Phew!

Edited December 29, 2013 by cheese

[Gaz1985]

Thankfully, people don't have to justify their weather preferences to you - or anyone else. Phew!

 

That's good - considering wet and cold is probably the least favourite weather type. Not heard many on here jumping up and down about the weather lately. Especially those flooded out for Christmas.

Edited December 29, 2013 by Gaz1985

[Peter H]

The BBC monthly outlook looks depressing for lovers of cold snowy weather today. 

Looks increasingly like yet another typical snowless winter. .I hate cold/mild rainy weather too. Nothing as boring during winter. 

[SnowObsessor90]

From from what I can see of the output it looks there more amplification  but typically it's completely in the wrong place for us snow lovers in the UK to benefit, sigh.

Edited December 30, 2013 by SnowObsessor90

[alexisj9]

Met office and BBC sort yourselves out will ya, your causing unnecessary arguments in the model thread lol. Not that I think long term out puts are all that important.

[stainesbloke]

Another day of heavy rain and gale force winds. Beginning to get a bit fed up of this pattern now, feel sorry for all those people flooded out of their homes at Christmas. The power went out twice here earlier. Hopefully the longer term outlook to something colder is correct. Settled would do me, let alone snow!

[Gord]

Another day of heavy rain and gale force winds. Beginning to get a bit fed up of this pattern now, feel sorry for all those people flooded out of their homes at Christmas. The power went out twice here earlier. Hopefully the longer term outlook to something colder is correct. Settled would do me, let alone snow!

 

Indeed, have to agree. Of course cold and snow would be great but at this moment in time...anything settled will do!

[snowblizzard]

Oh well, the past 3 or 4 years have delivered much more in the way of cold & snow in the South than we would generally expect.

 

I suppose by the law of average we are due a more average & probably snowless winter this time around.

 

It's beginning to look that way - damn it!

Edited December 30, 2013 by snowblizzard

[Gaz1985]

Been another wet windy cold day here, the rain arrived later than expected but looks back edge has cleared through, and just had a glimpse of sun - I'll take what I can get 

Edited December 30, 2013 by Gaz1985

[UV-RAY]

Another dismal day here, it's been raining non stop since the early hours. I've almost forgotten what sun light actually looks  like, roll on a pattern change come mid month, hopefully.

[Jax]

Another day of heavy rain and gale force winds. Beginning to get a bit fed up of this pattern now, feel sorry for all those people flooded out of their homes at Christmas. The power went out twice here earlier. Hopefully the longer term outlook to something colder is correct. Settled would do me, let alone snow!

 

 

Indeed, have to agree. Of course cold and snow would be great but at this moment in time...anything settled will do!

 

 

Been another wet windy cold day here, the rain arrived later than expected but looks back edge has cleared through, and just had a glimpse of sun - I'll take what I can get 

Good grief!  winter has only just started and your all weeping.  March is a long way off yet and plenty can take place in the mean time.

[Gord]

Good grief!  winter has only just started and your all weeping.  March is a long way off yet and plenty can take place in the mean time.

 

Who said I was weeping? All I said that is that an end to the wind and rain would be nice. At which point was I 'weeping' about winter? I believe that we will get some cold and snow at some point this winter. Last year is a great example of how things went from hopeless to cold arriving.  I was talking about the here and now and how we could use some drying up time.

 

I get a bit peeved when any comment made is read as someone complaining 'winter is over'. All people are saying is that we've had enough wet and windy weather....at no point has any of those posts that you have quoted written winter off.

Edited December 30, 2013 by Gord

[stainesbloke]

Good grief!  winter has only just started and your all weeping.  March is a long way off yet and plenty can take place in the mean time.

Who's weeping? Or are u just a nasty troll lol

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Winter not started yet in the south, rarely does before 2nd week of Jan, signs already of a pattern change for the start of winter, nothing cold for mid Jan, but looks drier, and will feel like winter, and hopefully leading to snow for Feb to Apr

[Peter H]

Met office and BBC sort yourselves out will ya, your causing unnecessary arguments in the model thread lol. Not that I think long term out puts are all that important.

Yep, there does seem to be something of a discrepancy between the two, I thought the BBC took their forecasts from the met office ?

[lassie23]

Agreed jason

We really are well and truely stuck in a most hideous pattern and have been since late November.

I  just cant see a way out at the moment.

I  know what can break us out of this weather rut, but i am not going to mention the S word again tonight.

[Ali1977]

So EC32 is not good.....ouch

[Average Joe]

Another day of heavy rain and gale force winds. Beginning to get a bit fed up of this pattern now, feel sorry for all those people flooded out of their homes at Christmas. The power went out twice here earlier. Hopefully the longer term outlook to something colder is correct. Settled would do me, let alone snow!

Thanks SB, yep all this water adding to it isn't a bundle of laughs is it! I'm with you, all I want is a fortnight of dry weather. Reading Frosty's daily predictions of "wintry potential" is almost as tiresome as the wind & rain!!

[MP-R]

Still no seasonal weather on the cards I see - lots of near misses and amplification in the wrong place. This weather is getting quite boring now, I suppose the only saving grace being that it's not mild. As has been said above, a nice settled spell would be a blessing let alone snow. Anticyclonic cold with frost and ice and a mix of foggy and sunny days (something that Sunday was similar to) would go down a treat. Let the ground dry out a bit then snow. This weather is just wasting time now!

[Tony27]

Winter not started yet in the south, rarely does before 2nd week of Jan, signs already of a pattern change for the start of winter, nothing cold for mid Jan, but looks drier, and will feel like winter, and hopefully leading to snow for Feb to Apr

yep winter starts about mid jan and end about late feb so winter lasts for about six weeks here, we may well see plenty of blocking in march and april but it don't mean it will be that cold with snow like you seem to keep on saying, i cannot ever remember snow lasting on the ground for about 5 days in march or april, synoptics usually need to be more special at that time of the year to deliver anyway, so i don't buy into your winter is from feb to apr theory

 

people keep saying we have two months of winter left, but if its mild for the next six weeks and we see a one week snowy cold spell in late feb would that mean its been a good winter? i hope we see a two week cold spell in jan with some snow and a two week cold spell in feb with some snow then it would have been be a good winter or is that asking for too much? 

Edited December 31, 2013 by Tony27

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Still sticking with GFS here, but do like the FI on Ecm model, cold/frosty and dry, Gavin D will hate it, he wants gales and rain all the time

[I remember Atlantic 252]

yep winter starts about mid jan and end about late feb so winter lasts for about six weeks here, we may well see plenty of blocking in march and april but it don't mean it will be that cold with snow like you seem to keep on saying, i cannot ever remember snow lasting on the ground for about 5 days in march or april, synoptics usually need to be more special at that time of the year to deliver anyway, so i don't buy into your winter is from feb to apr theory

 

people keep saying we have two months of winter left, but if its mild for the next six weeks and we see a one week snowy cold spell in late feb would that mean its been a good winter? i hope we see a two week cold spell in jan with some snow and a two week cold spell in feb with some snow then it would have been be a good winter or is that asking for too much? 

 

2 week cold spell in Jan is way too much to ask, snow doesn't need to last 5 days to be good, very rare for low levels south! still hopeful for snow from say around 29th Jan (wont be earlier low levels south) then we have all Feb, all Mar, and April for snow chances

[Tony27]

what a load of rubbish, snow in april lol, how is snow at low levels in the south more common in april than january? i would say hoping that some snow lasting for 5 days is a reasonable ask in january it has happened here a few times, what good is it if it snows one night then it's gone by lunchtime,

 

you need to get over with your obsession that it will snow in march and april, its as rare as hens teeth down here, unless you are happy with a dusting that is gone by 10am like easter day 2008 or whenever it was

 

also northerly blocking don't guarantee snow for us there could be a 1050mb greenland high but it could be dry and mild here, there are so many synoptics that don't deliver snow in winter let alone bloody april, also we can;t presume that once we get out of this wet and windy pattern we will see snow, we could just see a mid atlantic ridge or a uk high which COULD  lead to cold and snowy weather down the line, or we could see the Atlantic train just blast the high out of the way

Edited December 31, 2013 by Tony27