Model Output Discussion 17th Dec.2013-12z onwards.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Merry Christmas everyone , ECM looks quite promising to me this morning, Trough to the East, and it looks to me pressure would build further North to our West if the run went out any further ....Lows still being forced South on a more southerly jet undercutting any blocking that forms ... Output may look better by this evening . 

[Spah1]

Merry Christmas all. Keep up the great analysis.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Merry Christmas all! Someone needs to give the 6z a kick

 

Yeah how come it's still on 00z , anybody remember the link to the run status from noaa . 

[pdiddy]

Err nope Technically not a white xmas sorry mcweather. If it was I try and get the ground frost included.

Anyway a lull in blustery conditions. Not for long though. Nothing much changed since last time I looked the predominately mild windy weather to continue. Slightly less energy out there? Odd cold day thrown in with the normal tease in deep FI to wind people up whoa re looking for the deep freeze. The strong vortex holding on there like a boxer used to go 15 rounds. Second thoughts it doesn't look predominately mild more just below average.

Depends on your definition... bookies pay out on sleet/snow showers falling, not what's on the ground.  Met office declare those sites that qualify tomorrow.

[Tim Bland]

Yeah how come it's still on 00z , anybody remember the link to the run status from noaa .

I think it had a Christmas lie in! Out to t36 now http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=36&mode=0Merry Chrismas everyone!

[Cyclonic]

Merry Xmas all, have a great day, stay safe and be happy

 

 

And a nonono! to anymore storms please ..

 

And a Big Thankyou to Netweather for bringing us the Awesome Netweather site and it's forums where we can watch models, have a bit on banter, and also have a moan

 

 

PS on way home i took my Xmas hat of and stuck on someone's gnome in there garden, he did look awfully cold 

Edited December 25, 2013 by Cyclonic

[pip22]

Merry Christmas Everyone!!

 

6z GFS is still showing the storm over Scotland with severe gales/storm force over Northern England, S. Scotland and NI. Worse of the storm will be around 9am in the morning.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 25, 2013 by pip22

[snowmadchrisuk]

To me this looks like a really good chart at +192 . look at all the energy being forced SE and the Arctic high holding strong , I wouldn't be surprised to see the pattern back West in  FI . 

 

[carinthian]

Seasonal Greetings from Austria to all Netweather fans and the team. Yours is the best internet site.

Especially to all you snow lover out there, get that jet diving into Europe and your wishes will come in the New Year. Anyway , what will be, will be, as the say.

Have a nice holiday.

 C

 

Oh, forgot to report, its warm out here today, but we have a forecast of 50cm snowfall later today and tomorrow.

Edited December 25, 2013 by carinthian

[snowmadchrisuk]

6z been stuck on +192 forever .. are we going to get an FI today  

[pip22]

GFS is stuck on 63 hours, It must be a Christmas party in the Met office.

[Summer Sun]

GFS is stuck on 63 hours, It must be a Christmas party in the Met office.

 

Its fine here: http://translate.google.co.uk/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.meteociel.fr%2Fmodeles%2Fgfse_cartes.php&act=url

 

Out to t192 currently

[snowmadchrisuk]

The Ensembles are out and they are showing some very Cold options , like the chart below, 

 

[snowmadchrisuk]

80% of the ensembles are Cold, If It wasn't for the fact it was Christmas day , I would say that is indicative of a pattern change .... nearly all have heights to our North

Edited December 25, 2013 by snowmadchrisuk

[Snowman.]

Ensembles out before the actual run?

 

Someone is getting a bit tipsy at the NWS.

[Newberryone]

A very Happy Christmas everyone from a sunny but very cold and frosty County Cork. Here's hoping for many more of the same come 2014.

Have a great day.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Merry Christmas from the 6z GFS ......

 

[cooling climate]

The 06z finally out and it turns out to be a very wintry looking

run in FI. A very promising run this morning from the ECM plus the

06Z GFS with very good ens support for northern blocking and a

southerly tracking jet.

Maybe winter is now just around the corner as some of us have been

touting for the last few days.

[bluearmy]

The 06z finally out and it turns out to be a very wintry lookingrun in FI. A very promising run this morning from the ECM plus the06Z GFS with very good ens support for northern blocking and asoutherly tracking jet.Maybe winter is now just around the corner as some of us have beentouting for the last few days.

 

gfs 06z very representative of the ecm extended ens although the ridging into greenland is overdone on that op run. (however, doubtful the transient ridging would show on the ecm mean though and several recent control runs have amplified mid atlantic like that)

[Mucka]

GFS 06z presents its gift to the forum on Christmas day with the strongest signal yet for the prospect of colder and potentially snowy weather setting up into January - again the signal is not yet for deep sustained cold but a rather messy picture with the chance of some big snow events followed by fairly quick thaws though blocking may well establish itself as time goes on bringing those ice days that people crave.

 

Here for NW Endland (quite a strong snow signal for FI)

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=234&y=38

 

And for SE England temperatures falling away as we head through January (looking chilly later)

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=292&y=123&run=6&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1

 

The signal is still mixed but we have come long way over the last few days. It's case of hoping the signal continues to firm up and we start to see some eye candy in hi res over the next few days.

Okay back to Christmas and what's really important. Have a fantastic day everybody! 

[MP-R]

A Merry Christmas to all on N-W and many thanks to all those who have contributed to this thread throughout the year - amongst the highs and lows it's been a very interesting year and there have been countless fantastic posts. 

 

Next best thing to snow here today with sunny skies and a chilly temperature of 4C. I must warn all though that the jet stream will be in full force after this afternoon's Christmas lunch! Enjoy all.

[Muffelchen]

Beginning to get more confident of it turning colder in the new year, however, it is not a done deal....yet! Blocking in Scandy looking likely now as is troughing into W Europe. If this comes to any kind of fruition we should be in business cold wise. Will need to oil the sledges this week to take advantage of what (may) come.

Wishing everyone here a very Merry Christmas .- don't post too much on here (don't know enough!) But am a perpetual lurker. Enjoy today with the family and look forward to the New Year and all that it may bring.

[SLEETY]

festive cheer from the models today.A wintry looking outlook on Christmas Day 

[Panayiotis]

Yes the clear signal for colder weather after the 5th is evident on the 06z ensembles, hope the trend continues...

[pip22]

 

Alot of members showing positive some negative..