Model Output Discussion 17th Dec.2013-12z onwards.

[stratty]

 

 

Continental Europe milder than average; plus warmer sea temps than normal to NW: these factors should help tone any cold weather from N or E

 

 

 

................could also help pump up snow shower activity though if we ever get an easterly source long enough 

Edited December 28, 2013 by stratty

[cooling climate]

Well kudos to the Euro's this morning with the GFS backtracking and now draining

most of the heights to the north down into Scandinavia and nw Russia as per the

Euro outputs.

Temps likely to be average to slightly below with some possible transient snowfall

perhaps to lower levels as we go through the first 10 days of January.

Certainly does not rock my boat but may please others.

[Tim Bland]

At least the PV is obliterated

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=276&code=0&mode=0&carte=1

[chionomaniac]

I think that we can spend a lot of time over analysing the runs, so today I think it is time to show where the beginnings of change for the rest of winter are coming from - slowly, but surely this will help the chance for any Siberian High to build westwards over January (if the theme is correct).

 

Jet profile T+0

 

 

Jet profile T+180

 

 

A slow but significant change to a colder pattern, which has the potential to build as January progresses.

 

 

 

[Joe Levy]

When we first spotted the Asian warming in the output however long ago that was, I wasn't actually expecting to see any major impact on the NH profile until around mid January at the earliest. Perhaps my expectations were wrong, but as far as I am concerned, since the GFS is only now starting to cover mid January, the effects of this warming on the output have not reached their most significant. I wouldn't be able to comment scientifically speaking, but the arctic high at the end of the GFS 6z certainly looks resilient.

[fergieweather]

UKMO note only circa 10% of EPS members offer blocked solutions by mid-Jan with easterly components... these remain discounted for now based on current evidence. Conversely, the mobile westerly story, with occasional Pm bouts, remains very dominant across all output and hence no expectation of any major shift of emphasis for some time. Heavy rain remains the key concern, understandably so.

[stewfox]

UKMO note circa 90% of EPS members offer blocked solutions by mid-Jan with easterly components... these remain firm favourates for now based on current evidence. Conversely, the mobile westerly story, with occasional Pm bouts, remains very low on all output and hence expectation of a major shift of emphasis for soon. Heavy snow will become the key concern, understandably so.

 

If only Carlsberg did 'model watching '  

Edited December 28, 2013 by stewfox

[Frosty.]

If only Carlsberg did 'model watching '  

They will when chio's siberian high builds west

[weather eater]

Increasingly cold and remaining very unsettled appears to be the trend locking in with the jet being forced further south and eventually height rises to the n / ne with a much more southerly tracking jet and slider lows potential in the mid-longer range, in the meantime, very disturbed with further stormy weather separated by brief quieter interludes with a risk of frosts, and with continued cold incursions with wintry showers at times.

Increasingly average for the time of year I would say frosty, unfortunately and no real sign of an evolution to a substantial cold spell, still I expect we will see other ideas over the coming days. I guess for some members any kind of change to cooler conditions is welcomed but I can’t say a change from mild and wet to average and wet floats my boat, freezing cold rain when you work outside as I do is the pits. 

[SMU]

I think that we can spend a lot of time over analysing the runs, so today I think it is time to show where the beginnings of change for the rest of winter are coming from - slowly, but surely this will help the chance for any Siberian High to build westwards over January (if the theme is correct).

 

Jet profile T+0

 

Rtavn0014.png

 

Jet profile T+180

 

Rtavn18014.png

 

A slow but significant change to a colder pattern, which has the potential to build as January progresses.

 

 

HI Chiono-

 

the second image that's not a cold pattern either.

 

A southerly jet like the one you have added is only of use if you have a high pressure to the North to start with.

 

The jet we will need to see is a split jet - like this

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfsnh-2013030812-5-36.png?12

 

So before it ALL goes south we will need an injection of polar air from the North, you cannot get that without an element of the jet going through the pole.

 

S

Edited December 28, 2013 by Steve Murr

[stratty]

fergieweather, on 28 Dec 2013 - 11:09, said:

UKMO note circa 90% of EPS members offer blocked solutions by mid-Jan with easterly components... these remain firm favourites for now based on current evidence. Conversely, the mobile westerly story, with occasional Pm bouts, remains very low on all output and hence expectation of a major shift of emphasis for soon. Heavy snow will become the key concern, understandably so.

 

If only Carlsberg did 'model watching '  

 

 

......naughty naughty! lol

 

Edited December 28, 2013 by stratty

[Chris K]

fergieweather, on 28 Dec 2013 - 11:09, said:

 

If only Carlsberg did 'model watching '  

 

 

......naughty naughty! lol

Had to read what Ian posted again just to stop my heart palpitating. Shame on you!

[bluearmy]

There hasnt really been any semi reliable output pointing to blocking. Not proper blocking. But then, how much 'proper blocking' in our part of the hemisphere did we see jan/feb last winter? Weak blocks can be fine to bring cold if other more substantial blocks further afield are suitably placed. the sinking trough scenario would normally be very wintry in jan but a lack of cold uppers to begin with may make it a generally cold/wet, rather than white one. But in a slackish january trough set up, surprises are usually aplenty.

[Gael_Force]

Had to read what Ian posted again just to stop my heart palpitating. Shame on you!

 

Yes, I don't think we should be amending the posts of professional forecasters in that way - many will not go back and check the original.

Edited December 28, 2013 by Osbourne One-Nil
Then let them live in ignorant bliss brought about by their own lethargy!

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=0&mode=0&carte=1

 

Control run is good today- & shows the ingredients of a UK Cold spell-

 

Kumchatka ridge meeting with the  atlantic & scandi ridge = triple whammy

 

This is our hope for 6-8 th Jan & will most probably formulate the same sort of outlooks at those few EPS members Ian alluded to.

 

S

[Polar Maritime]

Increasingly average for the time of year I would say frosty, unfortunately and no real sign of an evolution to a substantial cold spell, still I expect we will see other ideas over the coming days. I guess for some members any kind of change to cooler conditions is welcomed but I can’t say a change from mild and wet to average and wet floats my boat, freezing cold rain when you work outside as I do is the pits. 

 

But the trend is increasingly colder as we progress through Jan as per METO and charts to possibly below average. Next week i agree average sometimes cooler temps, we need to get that out the way first... All part of the cooling trend for the cold to hopefully arrive, I work outside myself so completely understand !

 

I see OON's around to bring some order/humour...

Edited December 28, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[EML Network]

Looks like we have some sort of agreement between the GFS and the ECM this morning on the overall pattern moving through up until the first 1/3 of January. 

 

For a while the ECM and the GFS had both toyed with various options, from HLB over Scandi...to MLB to the West ...to High pressure nudging back in from the South. 

 

Throughout,  the most prominent and likely outcome was either High pressure nudging back in from the South West, or a continuation of the unsettled and sometimes stormy theme. 

 

The answer as if often the case when 2 options look a likely outcome, is somewhere in between, leaning more toward to unsettled side. 

 

So IMO were likely to see lots more unsettled weather, with periods of strong winds and lots of rain, interspersed with the odd dry day here in between different systems moving through. 

 

Temperatures at least in the upper atmosphere do look to be cooling off somewhat and I should imagine that this, coinciding with the wind and the rain will make for some cold feeling days ahead, even if the air temperature isn't reading low. 

 

That coupled with periods of snow falling over the hills in the north and perhaps a mixture of rain, sleet and wet snow even at lower levels further south on occasion. 

 

What I can't see anywhere is weather coming from anywhere other than the West or North West. 

 

If we are to see a cold period of weather lasting more than a few days then it's not going to be in the first 1/2 of winter. 

 

Will Feb come to the rescue ?? ...I don't think it will...perhaps cold , but I don't think we'll get the PPN to come with it...just a hunch :-)

I'm seeing 2 patterns in recent runs and have taken a snap shot of the GFS at + 240 06z run to highlight my point. 

 

In the image above I have highlighted a sort of ''tripole'' of pressure systems which I have seen over and over again on recent runs.

Essentially with Low pressure sandwiched in between High Pressure to the ENE and High Pressure to the ESE With a sort of ''trough'' of Low pressure running through the middle coming in from the NW and running SE...or approximate to that. 

The Red line indicates another pattern which has been with us all Winter long, this is to highlight that the 2 High Pressure systems lay in wait to link back up again once the Jet Stream dies down a little. 

So in my very very very limited knowledge view...once things calm down up stream, IMO the most likely route is for High Pressure to become established once again from the South, the Jet Stream moves further north and were back to dry, settled (for the most part) and...mild :-(

I really cannot see how this pattern is going to get broken, unless we can separate those 2 areas of High pressure long enough for them to move apart from one another. 

[SMU]

Hi EML-

 

Its the 3 ridges- Scandi / Atlantic & Kumchatka.... A tripod of ridges if you like-

Seen here

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-0-1-288.png?6

 

Eventually the cold sinks south-

S

 

SOME of the 06z ensembles are pretty good!

Edited December 28, 2013 by Steve Murr

[chionomaniac]

HI Chiono-

 

the second image that's not a cold pattern either.

 

A southerly jet like the one you have added is only of use if you have a high pressure to the North to start with.

 

The jet we will need to see is a split jet - like this

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfsnh-2013030812-5-36.png?12

 

So before it ALL goes south we will need an injection of polar air from the North, you cannot get that without an element of the jet going through the pole.

 

S

I realise that Steve, but we need to be seeing the jet heading NW/SE trajectory and then to get a splitting to occur - which I don't think will happen until after mid January. It is the first stepping stone that will lower the heights in southern Europe - hence the word slow change to a colder pattern. I guess I am looking a lot further ahead then most on here.

[Don]

Looking like a cooling trend into Jan but only "rather cold category" suggest UKMO, so fairly standard fare as it stands re temperatures...Continental Europe milder than average; plus warmer sea temps than normal to NW: these factors should help tone any cold weather from N or Ehttps://twitter.com/fergieweather

Wasn't this the main problem with the February 2005 cold spell? On that occasion continental Europe being mild. Edited December 28, 2013 by Don

[johnholmes]

my view with the anomaly charts in pdf format as usual

 

 

looking at things sat 28 dec 13.pdf

[Summer Sun]

A glimmer of hope for coldies from the met office today, the first part hasn't changed from yesterday but the bit in red is new

 

UK Outlook for Sunday 12 Jan 2014 to Sunday 26 Jan 2014:

 

Some signs are also emerging suggesting temperatures being less mild in general terms than the last couple of weeks, and perhaps even significantly colder late in the month.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[lassie23]

It can still snow when it's rather cold. Or would we need a northerly instead of an E/NE for our best chance of snow, considering that the continent is milder than usual?

[cooling climate]

On the Moscow ens the control run was a runaway outlier apart from one

other run. I have noticed the last few days on the Moscow ens some big

Arctic outbreaks only to be dropped the following runs.

[Duane S.]

Rather nice from the 06z control run...

 

 

Thereafter a theme I have seen popping up more and more. Energy driven SE into central Europe, followed by a stronger block to the East and Atlantic ridging ensuring the next pulse of energy is driven south west of the UK to sit just off Lisbon.