South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 18/12/13

[Long haul to mild]

Storm thread has collapsed into an ego bragging teenage stand off. I give up. Why do I never learn not to venture out of this nice regional.

Yes, sadly it was hijacked by a bunch of people trying to belittle others' experiences of previous storms and descended into lots of regional chip-on-shoulder comments.

[Sussex Jules]

It's just pathetic really. Reminds me of when I was a teacher dealing with a roomful of 16 year olds. In fact they were probably more mature.

[john pike]

 

all that north south thing is silly

 

the fax chart at 6pm shows the strongest winds here not up north

 

their turn is tuesday

[Jimmyh]

Have to agree the storm thread is place not to be at the moment. Actually think it all started or ended after the st Jude storm. The southern bias is ridiculous. Ggggrrrrrrr just makes me so mad. Shane tinternet wasn't around in 1987!!!!! Hey

[kate1]

It's just pathetic really. Reminds me of when I was a teacher dealing with a roomful of 16 year olds. In fact they were probably more mature.

I suspect they probably are a (virtual) room of 16 year olds...

[john pike]

do you know i havent even done a forecast for christmas day yet

 

i think i will do that tomorrow now

 

feeling dizzy looking at all them lows today

[Isabellesnanny]

How bad is it looking for Croydon in rush hour tomorrow -daughter has to drive from Reigate to Croydon and refuses to listen to my warnings as apparently I always over exaggerate the weather.

[Long haul to mild]

 

all that north south thing is silly

 

the fax chart at 6pm shows the strongest winds here not up north

 

their turn is tuesday

Reckon we will find some pretty high gusts along that front as it passes through. Fits in with the idea of two peaks for the wind in SE UK; one late afternoon and another around midnight (as the next front moves through). It is these fronts and their associated squall lines that are going to be the most dangerous part of this system.

[Sussex Jules]

Yea but don't you know John a Met O warning is something like a badge of honour!

They want one they can have ours for tomorrow. It just really annoys me when something like this hits the south. When something happens in the north we don't go on there and trash talk them talking about what is happening.

*rant over*

[Long haul to mild]

Yea but don't you know John a Met O warning is something like a badge of honour! They want one they can have ours for tomorrow. It just really annoys me when something like this hits the south. When something happens in the north we don't go on there and trash talk them talking about what is happening.*rant over*

I'm afraid the "Southern Softies" attitude emanating from some posters is one that is all too prevalent on here. It's regrettable, unwarranted and unnecessary. Edited December 22, 2013 by Chalk Serpent

[john pike]

true sussex

 

stick with the local thread

 

its nicer all round

[knightrider]

 

all that north south thing is silly

 

the fax chart at 6pm shows the strongest winds here not up north

 

their turn is tuesday

Tomorrow lunchtime onwards the winds will start building up throughout the afternoon 40-50mph gusts by this stage then after dark 6pm onwards things start getting really interesting as an intense pack of showers shoots through so could be looking at a number of intense squalls associated with the cold front passage with some potentially extreme convective activity locally monsoon like ran thunder & lightning included not out of the question maybe even a small tornado risk combine this with the winds swinging from the SW to more of a southerly and increasing to severe gale/storm force quite widely particularly on exposed south facing coasts 60mph+ inland maybe locally 70mph, on the channel cliff tops 80 even 90mph isn't out of the question, hold on tight folks if this was a rollercoaster it would be Oblivion lol 

[john pike]

How bad is it looking for Croydon in rush hour tomorrow -daughter has to drive from Reigate to Croydon and refuses to listen to my warnings as apparently I always over exaggerate the weather.

 

hi isabelle

 

would be better to get your daughter to watch the weather update tomorrow morning

 

rush hour around 6 could see gusts around 50-60 mph if the fax for 6pm is correct

 

not just the wind

 

torrential rain is also a factor to watch

[Isabellesnanny]

Thanks John - hopefully can get her to stay home tomorrow - must admit finding this a bit worrying now - agree with others this forum much nicer than some of the others nice to be able to post without worrying about a negative response whatever your weather preference.

[knightrider]

Thanks John - hopefully can get her to stay home tomorrow - must admit finding this a bit worrying now - agree with others this forum much nicer than some of the others nice to be able to post without worrying about a negative response whatever your weather preference.

North vs South thing it's always been the same it's just territorial pride I think it's childish myself, the facts remain that Scotland and northern England get storms more frequently then we do but that doesn't mean to say that their storms are necessarily bigger then ours when on the rare occasion we do get an exceptional storm. Nothing they claim will compare to 1987 regardless of what people might have you believe!

[john pike]

hi isabelle

 

try to get her to watch the weather tomorrow morning

 

although i doubt that will be easy

 

i agree we all have our own weather preferences and should not be shot down for saying so

 

after seeing all these lows showing i thought i would like to see a bartlett

 

changed my mind on that one pretty quick though 

[jamesbhx]

Gatwick Airports forecast has been revised up for the wind between 1200 tomorrow lunchtime through to 0400 on 24th. 32KT (37mph) mean speed with 55KT (63mph) gusts

[john pike]

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=321&y=148&run=18&runpara=0&type=1&ext=1

 

short term gefs pressure charts

[yamkin]

hi isabelle

 

try to get her to watch the weather tomorrow morning

 

although i doubt that will be easy

 

i agree we all have our own weather preferences and should not be shot down for saying so

 

after seeing all these lows showing i thought i would like to see a bartlett

 

changed my mind on that one pretty quick though 

 

Hi JP,  100 mph will strike certain areas in the UK which is more probable in the North. SE will have max wind gusts of 70 mph. Croydon Council are now in emergency preparedness mode along with the emergency services.

 

If Fri/Sat storm stays on course, we will be looking at higher wind gusts

[blackprince]

Gatwick Airports forecast has been revised up for the wind between 1200 tomorrow lunchtime through to 0400 on 24th. 32KT (37mph) mean speed with 55KT (63mph) gusts

Hi James I assume that the wind speeds have been increased ?

[PiggiePalace]

Evening everyone

 

Just recently got back from a return trip to Leeds today to pick up my Xmas guests. Wow - some great cloudscapes on the way up......drove through torrential hail between Northampton and Daventry approx 3pm - the cloud structure in my rear view mirror, lit by the sun was epic. Wish I had been travelling south instead of north at the time as I might have managed a few pics. Then just as darkness fell whilst approaching Wakefield - two fantastic anvils over to the west silhouetted against the dying day.Coming back - a lot of the motorway hazard warning signs - M1 only, not M25 - are announcing strong winds for tomorrow. Travel disruption is also on every hourly Radio 2 new bulletin. Also lots of BT Openreach vehicles out from Godstone down the A22 and into Lingfield - don;t know if this is what is affecting Mr Pike?

 

Currently sitting here pondering exactly where to safely park the car tomorrow and what flood preparations to make, whilst house-guest Tiggy the cat is wandering round acclimatising herself to her new surroundings and deciding where to sleep.Regrettably I'm pretty sure the stream WILL flood tomorrow given current local conditions and the amber warning for mid/north Sussex -  it's still very swollen from the last bout and so are the headwaters of the Medway in our village- so it is just a case of by how much, at what time..... and whether I trust the new flood defences to stand up to their first real-life test! Short answer - not prepared to risk it and the ageing Aquavac is now on stand-by.

 

The Xmas food shop will be done tomorrow morning with the aim of being back at the house from noon onwards making final preparations, working out my emergency evacuation plans, protecting Piggie Palace from the possible flooding and moving things upstairs. It's no mean feat trying to evacuate 10 guinea pigs, one cat, 8 pet carriers and two hoomans when your whole property is being surrounded by water. Hopefully we can sit it out upstairs for the duration without being pressured by the Fire Brigade to evacuate. I have however defiantly decided I will, after all, be bringing in the tree to decorate tomorrow evening.

 

I really am not looking forward to this storm because the worst risks for me will be  happening at night-time....i.e. in the dark!  I'd feel much better and more "in control" if it was during the day, so it wouldn't matter if the power went off.Anyhow - off to feed the piggies, try to "click and collect" some more camping gas lamps for tomorrow and thence to bed.Nite allxxxxxxx

Edited December 22, 2013 by PiggiePalace

[john pike]

heres a ramp

 

[Captain Shortwave]

do you know i havent even done a forecast for christmas day yet

 

i think i will do that tomorrow now

 

feeling dizzy looking at all them lows today

I made my christmas forecast whilst drunk (standard)

 

 

Christmas day forecast for East Anglia and the South east (might as well do this now). Overnight rain should be clear before dawn to leave a mostly dry day with sunny spells, just the chance of an isolated shower in the west. Winds westerly light to moderate. Temperatures 4-8C, expect a widespread air frost going into Boxing day

Still holding even 48 hours later. I must forecast the weather drunk more often 

[john pike]

oh alright then

 

heres another

 

[john pike]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=288&code=12&mode=0&carte=0

 

p12 aint too bad either