South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 18/12/13

[Wet'n'Dry]

Based on the recent models upgrade after upgrade :'( this will now and is looking like the strongest storm to make land in my life time so far (I'm 19)No over hype now 85mph gusts over such heavy populated areas is not good..

You obviously wasn't around for the 1987 'Hurricane'. Don't worry although I'm 52 I slept right through it and awoke to utter devastation in the morning. I'm hoping this event will not be as damaging, but the recent rainfall and saturated ground is surely going to play a part!! Stay safe!

[MAF]

You obviously wasn't around for the 1987 'Hurricane'. Don't worry although I'm 52 I slept right through it and awoke to utter devastation in the morning. I'm hoping this event will not be as damaging, but the recent rainfall and saturated ground is surely going to play a part!! Stay safe!

walked to work in the worst of it. worst part of the journey was walking in the middle of the road uphill. i could hear a strange sound above the noise of the wind and only once i got to the brow i realised what the sound was. a bus shelter been blown up the other side of the hill towards me :o suffice to say i moved pretty quick. watched tree after tree blown over and am still in awe as to the strength of nature

[john pike]

tonight

 

barring the odd shower should stay dry

 

temps

 

could drop to quite low single figures

 

winds changing from westerly to south westerly by morning

 

--------------------------------------

 

tomorrow

 

morning

 

winds south westerly but breezy not strong

 

still dry

 

still chilly as well

 

at 12

 

 

winds increased to around 30mph sustained

 

gusting to around 50 mph

 

maybe a shade higher on the coasts and far south east of the region

 

rainfall

 

very heavy rain and made more intense by the wind

 

at 7pm

 

winds getting stronger

 

south westerly flow

 

gusts still strong but still as above maybe 55mph inland  65mph coastal

 

rain

 

very heavy still

 

flood issues increasing here

 

temps not important but around 10-11 degrees

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

at 12am

 

 

this is where the isobars get really squeezed

 

the south east of the region could see strong 70- 80 plus mph winds

 

north of the thames 50-60 mph but only briefly the far north of the region may escape with 40-50 mph

 

winds should ease around 1-2am north of the river

 

around 3-4am south east region

 

rain

 

 

 

 

flooding is looking a big issue as well as the wind

 

temps are not important

 

tuesday 12

 

 

shows a strongish south west wind still

 

but nothing like we will get on monday afternoon evening

 

predicting windspeeds is tricky because you can be shielded from the wind or you may live where the wind funnells and gets stronger than predicted

 

check the updates after 10pm on bbc for new updates from them

 

this could still be adjusted on the early morning runs

 

either way take care as this does not look nice

 

and keep watching the flood warnings as well

[lottiekent]

Time to batten down the hatches in my little SE corner then?

Edited December 22, 2013 by lottiekent

[john pike]

ukmo on the 27th

 

 

 

[Steve C]

It's going to be very windy for sure, but I just don't see this as being in the same league as (what I'd describe as) the three major windstorms I've experienced in my life (2nd January 1976, 16th October 1987 and 25th January 1990)

 

In all those cases the track of the depressions' centres was a lot closer and the isobar gradient was more severe, even if in all the cases, the depressions weren't so deep as this one promises to be. I for one am hoping the storm isn't really severe.

Edited December 22, 2013 by Steve C

[john pike]

heres a ramp

 

 

to try and cheer everyone up

[Steve C]

ukmo on the 27th

 

 

 

I'm actually wondering whether this storm will cause more issues (especially for Ireland) due to the storm track? Thankfully when it gets closer to us, it appears to be filling.

[Keraunic]

I'm actually wondering whether this storm will cause more issues (especially for Ireland) due to the storm track? Thankfully when it gets closer to us, it appears to be filling.

Sorry, Steve but what does 'Filling' mean?

[john pike]

hi steve

 

i do not see this as damaging as the 87 storm

 

however these models are only predictions and anything can happen

 

heres the oct 87 chart

 

 

would anyone predict what happened with that chart

[Eskimo]

hi steve

 

i do not see this as damaging as the 87 storm

 

however these models are only predictions and anything can happen

 

heres the oct 87 chart

 

 

would anyone predict what happened with that chart

When I look at that chart I think...average Autumn storm. Although it was responsible for some of the worst winds in Southern Britain for what, 300 years?

[Tamara]

It's going to be very windy for sure, but I just don't see this as being in the same league as (what I'd describe as) the three major windstorms I've experienced in my life (2nd January 1976, 16th October 1987 and 25th January 1990)

 

In all those cases the track of the depressions' centres was a lot closer and the isobar gradient was more severe, even if in all the cases, the depressions weren't so deep as this one promises to be. I for one am hoping the storm isn't really severe.

I'm driving to Guildford tomorrow to pick my friend up around midday who has been working there for the last couple of weeks. The prospect of the A21 and M25 in rapidly worsening weather doesn't appeal to me and the A21 is lined with trees  It should be fine in the morning driving out - its mostly coming back that worries me. I'm hoping that we can get back to the Hastings area by 3pm, which seems to be the time that the wind really starts picking up. On that basis it will be just the heavy rain to deal with *she crosses her fingers*

[john pike]

going to turn off until later

 

to point out i am not comparing tomorrow with 1987

 

the set up is totally different

 

internet decides to start cutting out again

 

thought i had solved it

 

hopefully be back on later

[Jason T]

With all this pretty hard stormy weather incoming, We could get a few surprises over the holiday period, Yes SNOW. Just because the data does not show it, don't mean it can't, Fast and volatile  Weather coming through over the next 7 days, Temps could be colder than displayed as well. Keep yours eyes peeled folks, But most of all stay safe, We can replace pretty much anything in life,Except you. 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

This illiterates my idea of 2 "waves" of winds for the south east tomorrow night...

 

These are predicted gust charts..

 

Midday... 

 

 

49-54 Knots = 56mph-62mph

 

By 3pm winds really starting to get going...

 

 

54-59 knots = 62-67mph

 

6pm winds easing a tad still right up into the 50mph s 

 

 

Before the winds really get up at midnight and into the early hours.. This is where we will see our highest gusts..

 

 

59-65 knots = 67mph - 74mph

 

DON'T TAKE THIS CHART AS GOSSPAL THOUGH

[fluid dynamic]

I've been on the Dover-Calais ferry in an F11, many years ago - I presume today they would not set sail for health and safety.Even then the captain delayed while pondering whether to go or not.It was the most frightening ferry trip of my life, it was not only dipping and surfacing wildly, it was pitching and rolling to the side.I think it was before the Herald of Free Enterprise otherwise i might have been more worried.

 

People were literally being sick everywhere, i'm not usually travel sick but even my stomache went over a couple of times.

 

Everything which wasn't tied down was literally flying across the room, the bar or cafeteria was right by us and we saw shelves of things such as plates fly out and smash.

 

Even staff who must have been used to bad weather were staggering and falling.And in the middle of all this, the captain (I'll never forget him, I think by his accent he was Dutch or Austrian, some kind of gentle German accent anyway) stood upright not holding onto anything, with his arms crossed, surveying the room, as if he was in a parallel universe where the ship was not swaying at all.

My F9 experience was on the smallish ferry Penzance to Scillies for  a sub - aqua diving trip. There was rather a lot of vomit sloshing about - especially I remember going into the gents and it was running to and fro across the floor, but I am lucky in that I dont get sea sick. Felt queasy then though. There was a scouts troop on board, some enjoyed it, many didn't. It was funny seeing them hanging over windward side of the boat instead of leeward - not a good choice.

 

Best part was trying to hang onto the bar with our pints. Some free beer given out by the stewards who were quite enjoying it too.

 

The boat was made for that kind of weather - many of the doors were 'bulkhead' type if you know what I mean. A workmanlike kind of vessel.

[Hammer]

Met Office app now showing 60mph gust after recent data for 00:00 Monday in to Tursday for even my location.

Brighton 77mph further South.

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Sorry, Steve but what does 'Filling' mean?

Hi K,

 

Basically Filling means that the pressure at the centre of the system is starting to rise.

 

Think of it as two containers of water with a pipe connecting them.  If you put more water in one of the containers, it will, for a little while have more water in it than the other, while water flows along the pipe to equalise the 2.  The one with the higher level is a high pressure, the one with the lower level is th elow pressure and the flow through the pipe are the winds between the two.  The greater the imbalance, the greater the water flow through the pipe (equivalent to higher winds).  Also as the difference between the two drop, so does the flow (the winds) and therefore as a low fills the winds tend to decrease

 

Hope that helps

Edited December 22, 2013 by NorthNorfolkWeather

[Jason T]

Good image of storm being made.

 

Cheers liam.

 

https://twitter.com/liamdutton/status/414811271897554944/photo/1

[Keraunic]

My F9 experience was on the smallish ferry Penzance to Scillies for  a sub - aqua diving trip. There was rather a lot of vomit sloshing about - especially I remember going into the gents and it was running to and fro across the floor, but I am lucky in that I dont get sea sick. Felt queasy then though. There was a scouts troop on board, some enjoyed it, many didn't. It was funny seeing them hanging over windward side of the boat instead of leeward - not a good choice. Best part was trying to hang onto the bar with our pints. Some free beer given out by the stewards who were quite enjoying it too. The boat was made for that kind of weather - many of the doors were 'bulkhead' type if you know what I mean. A workmanlike kind of vessel.

Was that The Scillonian, FD? I remember sailing on that to The Scillies early one morning. All these cocky fellas got on and when we left Penzance, they all, (including my ex) went to order pints at the bar. It was a tad choppy and they all began to look green and didn't finish their drinks. I finished mine and my ex's......and had some more. Ok....enough reminiscing. It's a bit breezy and chilly in Ippy and we've had a slight shower of rain but nothing to speak of. We wait.............................:O

[blackprince]

My F9 experience was on the smallish ferry Penzance to Scillies for  a sub - aqua diving trip. There was rather a lot of vomit sloshing about - especially I remember going into the gents and it was running to and fro across the floor, but I am lucky in that I dont get sea sick. Felt queasy then though. There was a scouts troop on board, some enjoyed it, many didn't. It was funny seeing them hanging over windward side of the boat instead of leeward - not a good choice.

 

Best part was trying to hang onto the bar with our pints. Some free beer given out by the stewards who were quite enjoying it too.

 

The boat was made for that kind of weather - many of the doors were 'bulkhead' type if you know what I mean. A workmanlike kind of vessel.

My F10 experience was our honeymoon trip to Denmark in December,all other vessels decided not to risk it except ours!!!! It was a strange experience seeing the curtains hanging at 45 degrees to the windows,we staggered to the night club which if you was not already feeling sick would turn your tummy it was lit in magenta/pink ,it was impossible to dance as you were being thrown around so we pirched on a couple of barstools that were screwed down.It was only then that we realised that the only people in there was staff !!!! They had shut alot of the bars due to lack of customers,it was a very different way to start a honeymoon and a week later when we came home we copped another gale force storm.

[Keraunic]

Hi K, Basically Filling means that the pressure at the centre of the system is starting to rise. Think of it as two containers of water with a pipe connecting them.  If you put more water in one of the containers, it will, for a little while have more water in it than the other, while water flows along the pipe to equalise the 2.  The one with the higher level is a high pressure, the one with the lower level is th elow pressure and the flow through the pipe are the winds between the two.  The greater the imbalance, the greater the water flow through the pipe (equivalent to higher winds).  Also as the difference between the two drop, so does the flow (the winds) and therefore as a low fills the winds tend to decrease Hope that helps

Wonderful, NNW. Thank you. Very clearly described. I'll keep that in my notes if that's ok.

[fluid dynamic]

Was that The Scillonian, FD? I remember sailing on that to The Scillies early one morning. All these cocky fellas got on and when we left Penzance, they all, (including my ex) went to order pints at the bar. It was a tad choppy and they all began to look green and didn't finish their drinks. I finished mine and my ex's......and had some more.

Ok....enough reminiscing. It's a bit breezy and chilly in Ippy and we've had a slight shower of rain but nothing to speak of. We wait.............................

Yes K, the scillonian. I googled it after I wrote that post. Seems to be still floating !

[JennyJane1]

Yes K, the scillonian. I googled it after I wrote that post. Seems to be still floating !

I think but can't be sure that my exboyfriend was describing a flight from Penzance to Scilly in a storm years ago, it was a small eight seater or there abouts and he was terrified.

[saint]

Lots in the main thread are comparing this storm to St Jude... This storm, for here anyway, looks stronger and longer lasting than St Jude, as St Jude only really brought a 30 minute period here of strong winds, which were not even as strong as others areas, yet still brought down a lot of trees, so tomorrow's storm could potentially be much more dangerous with a longer period of wind and rain.