South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 18/12/13

[Sussex Jules]

You make an interesting point there John. I think they are indeed waiting for today's model updates. I don't know if anyone else follows weather people on twitter but to me they all seem pretty quiet at the moment apart from Schafernaker with a brief tweet this morning. Hopefully by 18z tonight we should have a better ideas but I notice that bbc and sky are at least mentioning it now.

[Atlantis]

Thank you Coast for the update. It looks pretty awful. Am taking your advice and moving things to sheltered spots in the garden as much as I can.

I think we will all be on here checking the latest updates as this storm develops.

We will have to keep our fingers crossed that the damage is not too great.

[AmericanSusie]

Yes - thanks everyone - ! I'm hopping on a train to Scotland in one hour instead of tomorrow noon (my previously booked ticket) and supremely grateful for all the expertise…! Merry Christmas and good luck!

[Skullzrulerz]

Not good news midday  xmas eve lp is 928mb and thats the latest run

[Tamara]

I think its time for some perspective once again here.... The windspeeds indicated are almost identical to the St Jude storm - much as indicated on the BBC forecasts this morning. The METO website showed gusts of 77 mph or so on coasts back then. .

 

However, unfortunately what has changed over the last 24 hours or so is that they do look to last for a longer period of time as it seems separate peaks in wind strength are suggested.

 

Its a hideous weather pattern in general, and especially for the festive season. I don't care what anyone thinks from a 'weather enthusiast' point of view, I would rather have the gentle quiet Euro High weather of a week or two back anytime rather than this 

 

Anyway, its a day of housework and wrapping the last presents and best to try and ignore this dreadful weather as much as possible

 

ECM London ensemble mean wind speed (without gusts) for London midnight Mon/Tues is about 14 m/s = approx 30 mph

 

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/meteo/eps/ensemble-ff-london.gif

 

So probably a mean wind speed on coasts about 40 to 45 mph. Up to about a mean Force 8/9 scale. Looks as though GFS is at the slightly higher range above the mean, although there is little in it

 

I think what is still well illustrated is the cold front itself and how, as suggested yesterday, winds (finally) drop out very quickly when this passes through in the early hours of Christmas Eve. This marked change in weather conditions post cold front happens so often with strong seasonal lows like this. It can't come too soon !

Edited December 22, 2013 by Tamara תָּמָר

[gottolovethisweather]

For those that may not have seen it, there is a dedicated thread with lots of valuable input (aside from my jokes) in it regarding the stormy run up to Christmas.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78796-possible-severe-atlantic-storms-over-the-christmas-period/page-26#entry2869042

Edited December 22, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[SteveCoops]

I see Metcheck's downgraded just to under 70MPH wind gusts, but it's now extended the gusts around 60MPH from 9am through to 3am!

 

I can't see my brother flying Dublin-Southend tomorrow now. I might even work from home as I don't want to get stuck in London.

Edited December 22, 2013 by SteveCoops

[Jax]

Spoke too soon regarding sun etc, turned wet and dull again here.

[Keraunic]

Mornin each. Lovely and sunny with clear skies here in Ipswich right now. Weird to think this may all change in a few hours time.

I hope everyone is ok and your plans are coming together despite the stormy outlook. As usual, I have last minuet panics. Oh well, it'll be right.

Thank you everyone for the updates. You're all marvellous. your better than the BBC.

Have a good day.

[Jax]

....and sunny with blue skies here again now. (still not done the washing up *doh!*)

[Tom Montalbano]

Good day all,

From a very festive and colourful looking Croydon, with a wide variety of ready made pavement pizza toppings, obviously a great night was had last night. Just sent my daughter out to play hopscotch avoiding the above and to collect the Office lunches from Tescos, I'm such a kind and considerate father! Although the thought of one of their turkey Xmas sandwich specials, is less appealing than normal! Hope you all enjoy your lunches. Wink!

Anybody still wanting to risk a bet on a White Xmas in London the best price available is the 6/1 with Corals.

I shant be taking that though, I'm quite happy with my £4,000 @ 9/4 on Ben Nevis, that Steve Coops kindly laid me! Happy Xmas mate. Lol.

On a more serious note, very worrying to report that Jan (Bromley) still hasnt been in touch, she's a popular member of this Regional thread and a near neighbour of mine. I think I'm going to have to make a more concerted effort to get in touch to make sure that she's ok, I'm sure we would all like to send her our best wishes.

Tom.

Edited December 22, 2013 by Kentish CZ

[JennyJane1]

Not going to be very nice at all... Plus the time it is hitting could not be worse..

 

Have come up with this little map having gone through the latest model run ..

 

storm warning.jpg

 

Just key for our area:

 

Purple (kent) : It looks like the isobars really tighten up for a couple of hours and I actually think we could see some very impressive gusts over Dover ETC this is where we will see our highest gusts perhaps 80mph +

 

Red area Coast : 75MPH tops maybe - 80mph gusts in exposed spots 

 

Red area London and other inland areas: 65-70mph gusts , again on higher ground and open exposed places a 75mph gust perhaps a tad high can't be ruled out..

 

yellow area: 60-65mph, again a 70mph can't be ruled out...

Thank you for taking the time to do this, it reallly hels those of us like me who don't really understand the isobar charts.

 

I've only just got up and its very calm here seems warmer than it did yesterday.I had a very disturbed night not only with my own breathing difficulties, but poor Smokey had an accident and cut her leg, we wanted to stop her flying about and making it worse, as she was holding the leg up, so Southernman placed her in one half of a shoebox on some bubble wrap, and brought her to me, and of course being worried about her, I sent most of the night stroking and comforting her and she seemed quite comfortable on the bubble wrap, then at first light she woke up and seemed to be using the leg again with no problem.

[john pike]

heres what the 00z runs show from fax and ukmo for monday through to tuesday

 

monday 12

 

 

winds  increasing during the day from just before lunchtime

 

gusting to around 40 mph maybe 50mph southern coastal areas

 

ukmo

 

agreement there

 

sustained winds around 30 mph

 

expect some very heavy rain as well

 

temps irrelevant

 

ukmo at 42

 

sustained south west winds around 40 mph

 

gusts around 50mph maybe 60 mph around the far south east area

 

rain

 

still very heavy rain

 

flooding also an issue now

 

temps again unimportant

 

 

tuesday 00

 

 

very tight isobars

 

sustained winds still around 40 mph

 

severe gusts possible up to 80 mph possible gusts of 90 mph to the far south east of the region

 

ukmo

 

agrees with fax and you can see how tight the isobars are there

 

rain still very heavy

 

 

jet for same time

 

 

 

strong enough to cause issues evening overnight

 

should ease around 3-4 in the morning

 

this is not my forecast

 

will wait until the 12z run to do it properly

 

oh and i fixed my internet

Edited December 22, 2013 by john pike

[JennyJane1]

Morning all,The wind will cause some damage but dont forget the rain. We've had a lot, and a lot more to come. I feel its likely we will see railway disruption with embankments and cuttings being sodden and possibly overloading their drainage. Landslips are very possible.

I think you are right and don't forget that there are places where the river banks haven't recovered from the last flooding so there's nothing to stop further flooding.no time for repairs to have been made yet.Also the roots of many trees haven't dried out yet so they may fall very easily.

[Sussex Jules]

oh and i fixed my internet

 

[Jax]

Thank you for taking the time to do this, it reallly hels those of us like me who don't really understand the isobar charts.

 

I've only just got up and its very calm here seems warmer than it did yesterday.I had a very disturbed night not only with my own breathing difficulties, but poor Smokey had an accident and cut her leg, we wanted to stop her flying about and making it worse, as she was holding the leg up, so Southernman placed her in one half of a shoebox on some bubble wrap, and brought her to me, and of course being worried about her, I sent most of the night stroking and comforting her and she seemed quite comfortable on the bubble wrap, then at first light she woke up and seemed to be using the leg again with no problem.

Smokey OK now?

[JennyJane1]

Smokey OK now?

She seems to be, we'll continue to keep an eye on her.I hate it when something happens to a pet you love, how these wicked idiots you read about in the news can mistreat their animals, i have no idea.

 

edit to say that of course if she appears in distress i will call the emergency vet.

Edited December 22, 2013 by JennyJane1

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Gone Amber for rain ladies and gents

Edited December 22, 2013 by Surrey

[Sussex Jules]

Monday 23rd December 2013

 

Weather reports for Monday 23 December indicate that the Sussex area will see heavy persistent rain across the region with wind speeds of between 50-60 mph from 16:00 on Monday through to 09:00 Tuesday 24th December. During this time we may see winds gusting up to 80mph.

 

The high winds will require Southern to reduce our operating speed to 50mph, this reduction in speed will require some trains to be cancelled and others, particularly on main line and coastal routes will be subject to delay. 

 

http://www.southernrailway.com/

[Tamara]

That latest updated METO warning underlines the needed perspective 90 mph wind gusts are more likely in the far NW later on Tuesday. 70 to 80mph gusts is more than enough anyway down here towards the coast...and is in line with the ensemble predictions posted earlier of up to Force 9 windspeeds

 

Better hope that the attic roof doesn't leak like the St Jude's storm when the rain was driven in through the tiles, and everything else obviously stays intact too. The 'fun' of living by the English Channel in winter gales when the wind comes blasting off the sea

[Keraunic]

Gone Amber for rain ladies and gents

And at last, EA has an alert. Crikey! :O

[JennyJane1]

Smokey OK now?

I can relax a bit now, she's eating, which she wasn't doing last night, seems very hungry and is snaffling peanuts and sunflower seeds.Also she's putting her weight on both legs again.The bleeding appears to have stopped and she has just a long dark scab at the top of her leg.

 

We'll still keep an eye on her but I feel much happier about it.I'll probably bring her to bed with me again tonight just in case, then I can keep an eye on her in the night.

[JennyJane1]

this could  easily out due the  great storm  will not  be surprised to see  winds  speeds  of 100mph Monday evening not with rush hour in full swing, im trying to tell her  indoors not to go to work all at least work to dinner so i can get her in the  day light  i  don't  fancy flying wheelie bins  and  bus shelters  chasing  me like the great storm  did!!

You saying that, i'm beginning to get very worried about Southernman as he will be out on the river in that from 6 till 10 on monday night, then it takes him about 45 minutes to drive home and a lot of his way home is rural with large trees lining the road.

[Keraunic]

She seems to be, we'll continue to keep an eye on her.I hate it when something happens to a pet you love, how these wicked idiots you read about in the news can mistreat their animals, i have no idea. edit to say that of course if she appears in distress i will call the emergency vet.

Yes, there are some evil people around, Jenny Jane. Thank goodness for people like us who love and cherish their animals. I hope Smokey gets better soon. Keep us posted. (On a weather related note) It's clouding up here now and rain is coming.

[Steve C]

I can't see we (in the south) are under any wind warnings at all. Not sure whether they are still updating, but I'd be happy for a downgrade.

Edited December 22, 2013 by Steve C