South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 18/12/13

[alexisj9]

winds still gusting in the high 40's here, are they supposed to drop at all before mondays storm?

[tinybill]

in the words of  CAPT MANNINGS DONT  PANIC!!!

 

2 warnings from sky warn

 

SKYWARN UK SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING #047ISSUED: 1000UTC SATURDAY 21ST DECEMBER 2013

 

SKYWARN UK HAS ISSUED A WARNING FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CONDITIONS AS FOLLOWS:DAMAGING AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WIND GUSTS - WALES, IOM, NORTHERN ENGLAND, MIDLANDS, SOUTHERN SCOTLANDHEAVY RAIN LEADING TO A RISK OF LOCALISED FLOODING - WALES, IOM, NORTHERN ENGLAND, MIDLANDSPOTENTIALLY STRONG AND DAMAGING TORNADOES - WALES, NORTHERN ENGLAND, MIDLANDS

 

IN EFFECT UNTIL 2100UTC SATURDAY 21ST DECEMBER 2013

 

POST-FRONTAL SHORTWAVING AND A FURTHER WAVE/COMMA DEVELOPMENT, WITHIN AN UNSTABLE AND WINDY ENVIRONMENT

 

DISCUSSION:

THERE IS STRONG MODEL AND PARTNER AGENCY CONFIDENCE IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISKS TODAY. ONGOING ACTIVE CELLS IN THE IRISH SEA INTO NORTHERN ENGLAND ARE TESTAMENT TO ADVECTED WARMTH AND INSTABILITY BEING SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG CONVECTION. A WELL-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AS THE UPPER JET PASSES IS PROVIDING SUFFICIENT FORCING TO SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS, FOCUSSED AROUND A POST-FRONTAL SHORTWAVE. STRONG GUSTS ENHANCEMENT IS LIKELY, WITH SPEEDS OF UP TO 60MPH EASILY POSSIBLE AND A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF WEAK TORNADOES. INTENSE RAINFALL MAY ALSO PROVIDE A LOCALISED FLOODING RISK, THOUGH STORM MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY SWIFT.

 

LATER THIS AFTERNOON, UNDER THE DIVERGENT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE PASSING UPPER JET BUT AHEAD OF A DEEPER DEVELOPING JET MAX, ADEQUATE FORCING WILL EXIST FOR SUSTAINED AND ORGANISED CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL SUPERCELL PHASES TO STRONGER UPDRAFTS GIVEN ENHANCED DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF A DEVELOPING WAVE. SEVERE AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE, AS ARE SOMEWHAT STRONGER TORNADOES WHERE TOPOGRAPHY ALLOWS. HEAVY RAIN AND COPIOUS HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, LEADING TO EXCESS SURFACE WATER AND POSSIBLE FURTHER LOCALISED FLOODING GIVEN RECENT GROUND SATURATION. THIS WARNING MAY BE UPGRADED, PLEASE MONITOR WEATHER AND TRAVEL INFO AS NECESSARY.

 

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AND SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ALL FACTORS EXCEEDING ACTIVATION CRITERIA

 

**** alerts contd below ****

 

SKYWARN UK SEVERE WEATHER WATCH #046

ISSUED: 1100UTC FRIDAY 20TH DECEMBER 2013

 

SKYWARN UK FORECASTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS FOLLOWS:

STRONG, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS - SCOTLAND, NORTHERN IRELAND & IOM, NORTHERN ENGLAND, WALES, SOUTHWEST & SOUTHERN ENGLANDHEAVY RAIN LEADING TO A RISK OF LOCALISED FLOODING - WESTERN SCOTLAND, WALES, NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST ENGLANDBRIEF, WEAK TORNADOES - WESTERN SCOTLAND, NORTHERN IRELAND & IOM, NORTHWEST ENGLAND

 

IN EFFECT FROM 1200UTC FRIDAY 20TH UNTIL 0600UTC SUNDAY 22ND DECEMBER 2013

 

DEEP ICELANDIC LOW GENERATING GALES WITHIN AND BEHIND A BROAD ACTIVE FRONTAL ZONE, WITH FURTHER WAVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH SATURDAY

DISCUSSION:

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AND PARTNER AGENCY CONFIDENCE IN THE POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE WEATHER RISK THROUGH THE PERIOD. A BROAD AND DEEP ICELANDIC LOW SYSTEM CASTS A WIDE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE UK, WITH GALE FORCE PRE-FRONTAL WINDS AND POTENTIALLY CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE COLD FRONT. A STRONG ONCOMING BRANCH OF THE JET PUSHES THE TRIPLE POINT OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH SOUTHERN SCOTLAND AND NORTHERN ENGLAND. SOUTH OF THIS AND UNDER THE DIVERGENT RIGHT EXIT REGION, STRONG FORCING ARISING FROM SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE FLOW MAY ENCOURAGE CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT TO THE GUST STRENGTH AND A POSSIBILITY OF LEWP PHASES TO THE SPLIT COLD FRONT. NORTH OF THIS, THROUGH NORTHERN IRELAND AND SCOTLAND, INSTABILITY SHOULD BE DEEPER AND MORE COINCIDENTAL WITH THE COLD FRONT, LEADING TO STRONGER DOWNDRAFT GUST ENHANCEMENT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADIC ELEMENTS OCCURRING BRIEFLY. OVERALL, THE STRONG WIND ENHANCEMENT TO THE RAINFALL COULD SEE AROUND 40MM OF RAINFALL OVER HIGH GROUND AND COASTAL AREAS OF WESTERN SCOTLAND, WALES, NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST ENGLAND, PARTICULARLY SO IN THE SOUTH OWING TO THE LONGER PERIOD OF RAINFALL. HIGHEST GUSTS FROM THE REARWARD COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED FROM NORTHWEST ENGLAND AND NORTH WALES AND NORTHWARD, THOUGH POSSIBILITIES OF STRONG GUSTS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF NORTHERN ENGLAND AND SCOTLAND CANNOT BE IGNORED. NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN SCOTLAND WILL ALSO SEE PERSISTENT GALES AND STRONG GUSTS THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAINING AFTER THE PASSAGE OF TODAY'S FRONTAL SYSTEM.

 

SATURDAY ALSO SEES A FURTHER WAVE DEVELOPING WITHIN THE STRONG WIND FIELD, WITH CYCLOGENESIS POSSIBLY OCCURRING AS IT EMERGES ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE JET. IF SO, ENHANCEMENTS TO THE FORCING AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITHIN AN ALREADY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT MAY LEAD TO ORGANISED CONVECTION AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE GUSTS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES THROUGH NORTHERN IRELAND, ISLE OF MAN, SOUTHERN SCOTLAND AND NORTHERN ENGLAND. THE MODELLING OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY AND FURTHER UPDATES MAY BE ISSUED. PLEASE MONITOR WEATHER AND TRAVEL INFO AS NECESSARY.

 

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AND SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ALL FACTORS EXCEEDING ACTIVATION CRITERIA.

 

http://www.skywarn.org.uk/current.html

[Sussex Jules]

winds still gusting in the high 40's here, are they supposed to drop at all before mondays storm?

Tomorrow is forecast to be quieter. Lull before the storm? We shall see!

[Snowangel-MK]

 

Yellow Alert of Wind for East of England :

 

Cambridgeshire, Central Bedfordshire, Essex, Hertfordshire, Luton, Norfolk, Suffolk, Thurrock, Bedford, Peterborough & Southend-on-Sea

 

Yellow Alert of Wind for London & South East England :

 

Bracknell Forest, Brighton and Hove, East Sussex, Greater London, Hampshire, Isle of Wight, Kent, Portsmouth, Southampton, Surrey, West Sussex, Windsor and Maidenhead, Slough, Buckinghamshire, Medway, Oxfordshire, Reading, West Berkshire, Wokingham & Milton Keynes

 

A rapidly deepening area of low pressure will bring very strong winds, reaching southwestern areas during the first half of Monday, lasting well into Christmas Eve across many parts, easing from the south later. Further heavy rainfall will accompany the initial increase in winds.

 

There is the likelihood of widespread gales, with gusts to around 70 mph for much of Scotland, Northern Ireland, west Wales, northwest England, as well as southern coasts of England. Gusts of 80-90 mph are possible, the greatest likelihood of these values being towards the northwest. Although many central and eastern areas of England should see lesser wind gusts, the combination of these winds with heavy rain and heavy holiday traffic may well increase impacts.

 

The public should be aware of the potential for significant disruption to travel due to the very strong winds, and also the risk of some flooding due to the heavy rain. Please keep in touch with the forecasts and warnings, which are expected to be updated again on Sunday.

 

Issued at:

1228 on Sat 21 Dec 2013

 

Valid from:

0900 on Mon 23 Dec 2013

 

Valid to:

2359 on Tue 24 Dec 2013

 

 

An area of low pressure will deepen rapidly as it passes just to the west and northwest of the UK later on Monday, ending up as an exceptionally deep feature. This will bring stormy conditions to parts of the UK on Monday and Tuesday with the strongest winds likely along coastlines exposed to the south and west, but later perhaps more generally across parts of the north.

 

There remains some uncertainty around the precise depth and track of this system, and hence the areas most likely to be affected by the strongest winds and heavy rain.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?regionName=se&from=rss&sn=C38E5F1C-72E3-5ACB-EF91-0ECC484C7A94_7_SE&tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1387756800

[Jax]

Yuck!  I feel ill looking at those, without the hangover to boot.

 

Just been out to the local shop (it's a local shop for local people  )  and it was nasty weather.

 

Taking the dawg to the groomers at 2pm, and I don't think I'll be walking her there and back this time, would kinda defeat the object.  Plus I don't want to miss too much of the showjumping if I can help it.  The weather is a good alternative excuse to drive the 1.5 miles rather than walk it.

 

Also going to watch Frozen later this evening which I'm looking forward to.  A busy but nice day.

 

 

Hurry back, it starts in 5 mins!

 

Just had highlights of the Puissance and Dressage.

[Snowangel-MK]

Loving this cool link to the current wind map around the globe (rotate the globe to the UK)... (thanks to Clare for sharing on facebook)

 

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-336.97,51.08,289

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Loving this cool link to the current wind map around the globe (rotate the globe to the UK)... (thanks to Clare for sharing on facebook)

 

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-336.97,51.08,289

And thank kinghtrider for sharing it with me

[Sussex Jules]

Loving this cool link to the current wind map around the globe (rotate the globe to the UK)... (thanks to Clare for sharing on facebook)

 

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-336.97,51.08,289

Hi MK just to point out it doesn't show current winds its based on GFS predictions

[Charltonkerry]

For you oldie sport fans, just heard David Coleman has passed away today, yet another great sporting commentators from my youth has gone.

[Snowangel-MK]

Sooo I'm going to be in fashion going out on Monday night in my Chrimbo jumper...everyone seems to be wearing them this year even the Penguins...

 

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=15IF4l_XX7E

[terryall]

Booked a train from London to Cardiff mid morning Tuesday so hoping, in vain, that winds have dropped by then and flooding at a minimum or none at all but wishful thinking on my part.

[john pike]

Hi all

Lost all internet for now and cannot do much on this phone.

Trying to resolve it asap

Regards

John

[Snowangel-MK]

Booked a train from London to Cardiff mid morning Tuesday so hoping, in vain, that winds have dropped by then and flooding at a minimum or none at all but wishful thinking on my part.

 

Not this one then ....

 

 

... can anyone tell me when this is on the TV over Chringlemas...such a great film 

Edited December 21, 2013 by MKsnowangel

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

Not this one then ....

 

Polar_Express_-_2004_-_THQ,_Inc..jpg

 

... can anyone tell me when this is on the TV over Chringlemas...such a great film 

 

Seems only 5* right now..

 

http://www.tvguide.co.uk/searchfilm.asp?title=The%20Polar%20Express

[Keraunic]

Afternoon each. It's very windy and rainy here in Ippy. Wild would be the word I think. :O Perfect for watching a documentary about Rendalsham Forrest and aliens. Which I just did...and it was very creepy.

Hope you're all having a good week end.

[Jax]

Hurry back, it starts in 5 mins!

 

Just had highlights of the Puissance and Dressage.

What a fantastic afternoons entertainment that was, best TV I have seen in ages,  Olympia as a show just brilliant IMHO, make's my xmas.

[Kent Snow]

Rain all day and it never really got that light. Wind still very strong. 10C.

[SteveCoops]

Metcheck's upped Monday night to 72MPH max gust for me!

[Keraunic]

Ah well, folks.....give it a week or two and we will begin to see the nights sloooooowly drawing out.

I'm loving this weather. But I know there are many out there who don't like it. I hope everyone stays safe and well.

[tinybill]

00:00

S 39 mph to 74 mph 9 C 3.3 mm

100% 9400 m 982 mb  

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

 

 think  people need  to watch  this site   early tuesday  morning   74  mph  here !!! so  batten down !!

[john pike]

im back on

 

full update later

[Sussex Jules]

im back on

 

full update later

Most anticipated update since last storm!

[Neilsouth]

Woaaa *** awesome! I just walked through a tiny woodland in this weather, the roar of the wind through the trees was something else!! Like straight out of a hurricane movie

[Summer of 76]

im back on

 

full update later

They just can't keep a good forecaster down

[Keraunic]

Here are the wind speeds, gusts for Ipswich Monday night/Tuesday early hours;