South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 18/12/13

[JennyJane1]

I think the temperature here must have dropped quite a lot as I am feeling very cold now.

 

Yes, so cold that I notice I posted this twice by accident.oops

Edited December 20, 2013 by JennyJane1

[Jax]

Afternoon all

 

Hope you are all well, still under the weather myself, two days off should help (I hope).

 

Did notice it feels a lot colder again out, more so in the stifff breeze, just having a sit down before I head out quickly (and it will be quick I hope)

[Steve C]

Looking at the GFS 12Z, it's showing an extremely deep low to the North of Ireland by next Tuesday lunchtime. It looks like bottoming out at sub 930 mb!

 

I think I can only once remember a low deeper than that, in the north Atlantic. The pressure squeeze looks like it'd give violent gales to the NW of the UK and probably gales for everyone else, at some point!

 

Edited December 20, 2013 by Steve C

[Tamara]

Looking at the GFS 12Z, it's showing an extremely deep low to the North of Ireland by next Tuesday lunchtime. It looks like bottoming out at sub 930 mb!

 

I think I can only once remember a low deeper than that, in the north Atlantic. The pressure squeeze looks like it'd give violent gales to the NW of the UK and probably gales for everyone else, at some point!

 

Deep Low.png

The strongest winds for our region seem likely from mid to late afternoon on Monday through to about midnight as the cold front clears eastwards. Gusts up to 60 to 70 mph seem likely then for our region most especially on southern facing coasts - in that sense, as suggested a little earlier, probably on par with St Judes storm for wind strength, but from a much bigger major low pressure system instead of the very active wave feature that restricted the strong winds to southern most districts of england as it tracked from the channel coast into the north sea late in October.

 

As you say, the prospects for NW most parts look very stormy into Christmas Eve as the low passes to the NW of the Hebrides.

[Isabellesnanny]

After sitting in the road for half an hour this morning comforting a girl who had crashed her motorbike after slipping on ice, while she screamed in pain whilst we waited for the ambulance made me realise that the weather can be very destructive  - would rather have boring and mild then have to see a youg girl being taken off to hospital with suspected back and neck injuries. 

[gottolovethisweather]

A copy of my latest offerings from the MOD thread.

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

The Jet is holidaying in North Africa for Christmas Day itself but with the turbulent picture I'm imagining it won't be staying there for long. Well done the GFS's various outputs for picking up this signal back on the 16th December if not before. Now eyes down to Boxing Day onwards, albeit at the realms of Fantasy Island at such a timeframe but before then we have to deal with the following.  

 

• A very wet day for much of the Southern and Eastern UK on Saturday and pretty windy in parts too.
•  
• •Sunday starts relatively calm but descends into a dismal day more especially the North of the UK including Ireland, much of Scotland and parts of Northern England where gales are due alongside copious amounts of rain and some snow to higher levels.
•  
• •Monday is a lively day for much of the UK with potentially storm-force winds and rain spreading up from the SW with this region especially prone to potentially violent gusts of wind and not to be outdone will most parts of Southern England.
•  
• •Tuesday (Christmas Eve) witnesses another deep depression trundle across parts of the North with further potential for snow across higher parts of the UK with even the SW moors showing the slightest hint for some action, albeit showery by nature here. Hmmm, yes you guessed it, a very windy day likely again.
•  
• •Wednesday (Christmas Day) looks like a CALMER DAY altogether. Some snow (more especially at elevation), perhaps courtesy of streamers set ups across Scotland, doubtful elsewhere to be honest, but a lot could change yet!
•  
• •Thursday (Boxing Day) could bring a second successive day of relative calm according to the GFS 12z but not long before another depression starts to rear its ugly head towards the SW approaches.

 

 

 

Over to the other afternoon and evening suites to see what they bring us over the festive period. 

Edited December 20, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Coast]

Bring it on Coast, The only problem is we have to rely on storm force winds to drag the cold air in to achieve a chance of snow,  Never simple is it.

 

Oww getting a bit tired of them now - and I am getting chart fever as I can't remember which low is what when I'm looking at the data. :lol:  I wish I had a wind turbine now, it might offset the cost of lightning all these ruddy Christmas decorations!  

 

Still, I've beaten the neighbours this year:

 

[Coast]

OK, just to inject a tiny ickle bit of seriousness into things. I've run the 5 day Met O up until the end and there are some pretty big gusts forecast there, much in line with other sources. I've picked the following to show the highest point of the current run and it's not pretty. Please run the sequence yourself for your area just to get a grip on how things may pan out if you have to travel.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/hastings-east-sussex#?tab=map&fcTime=1387810800&map=GustSpeed&zoom=8&lon=0.45&lat=51.52

 

I have to say I've not seen gusts projected by the Met O like this all year and this is currently running higher than St Jude's in parts:

 

 

Luckily this is in the middle of the night, but please don't let it ruin anyone's celebrations.

 

[JennyJane1]

Southernman has just come in, he drove to Norwich early today, he said it was very cold out but luckily he saw no ice on the roads and did not need to take ice off the windscreen before leaving.

 

That's one thing I hate about winter, the black ice.Or any ice underfoot.

[Keraunic]

OK, just to inject a tiny ickle bit of seriousness into things. I've run the 5 day Met O up until the end and there are some pretty big gusts forecast there, much in line with other sources. I've picked the following to show the highest point of the current run and it's not pretty. Please run the sequence yourself for your area just to get a grip on how things may pan out if you have to travel.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/hastings-east-sussex#?tab=map&fcTime=1387810800&map=GustSpeed&zoom=8&lon=0.45&lat=51.52

 

I have to say I've not seen gusts projected by the Met O like this all year and this is currently running higher than St Jude's in parts:

 

Met O 5 day.PNG

 

Luckily this is in the middle of the night, but please don't let it ruin anyone's celebrations.

Bit like Christmas Eve 1997 in York. Really strong winds that night. :o

[Tom Montalbano]

 

Only 9/4 odds now for white Christmas

 Hi Steve,If you're offering 9/4 about the top of Ben Nevis, I'll have £4k, go on you know you want to lay the bet! (wink)http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=120&mode=2Tom. Edited December 20, 2013 by Kentish CZ

[Lauren]

Ice on the windscreen is a pain, but it sure is pretty.

 

 

[fluid dynamic]

There's a BBC weatherman on University challenge right now . Lets see how clever he is.

[80sWeather]

Ice on the windscreen is a pain, but it sure is pretty.

There is a great program on BBC I player about ice.Really fascinating :-)

[JennyJane1]

wind is getting up again here, very cold inside now.no heating on, will take a while to get going.

[Snowangel-MK]

Anyone for a bit of Christmas Eve bombogenisis ?

(Bombogenesis is defined as a drop in surface barometric pressure by 24 or more millibars in a 24-hour period)

Edited December 20, 2013 by MKsnowangel

[Summer of 76]

Anyone for a bit of Christmas Eve bombogenisis ?

image.jpg

(Bombogenesis is defined as a drop in surface barometric pressure by 24 or more millibars in a 24-hour period)

I bet that's delivered to your door by TNT

Edited December 20, 2013 by chris mantle

[Captain Shortwave]

^{So with Christmas coming up, I will post my thoughts on how the big day will pan out (and get it hideously wrong}  )

There will be rain overnight, which will clear before dawn leaving mostly clear skies throughout the day with just the risk of an odd rain shower. Temperatures probably around 5 or 6C, expect quite a sharp frost going into Boxing day. Overall I think the weather will be pretty nice, the UKMO and ECM show the isobars opening out so it shouldn't feel too bad.

Prospects of snow - low for this area of the Uk just due to the wind direct, being westerly any cloud or showers will probably melt away long before it reaches us, but you never know there might be a disturbance like last nights thunderstorms which might deliver something, especially over higher ground.

Better than the last 2 year at least and a lot better than I thought just a week back

Edited December 20, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Snowangel-MK]

i bet that delivered to your door by TNT

Don't be silly .......only Santa delivers on Chrimbo Eve !

[Tom Jarvis]

looks like I'm going to get very wet tomorrow

[SteveCoops]

  Hi Steve,If you're offering 9/4 about the top of Ben Nevis, I'll have £4k, go on you know you want to lay the bet! (wink)http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=120&mode=2Tom.

 

Er go speak to Mr P Power Or even one of my brothers - I'm not a gambling man

[Jason T]

 

 

http://t.co/jzxRBNRjOM

 

Very scary this one. 

 

 

 

[Flaked Queen]

Hot choc hitting the right spot mmmmmm ! Can feel the cold coming and smell it if you know what I mean

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Really windy tonight.. But just a warm up for what's to come over the next few days..

[Jimmyh]

Wild out there now