South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 18/12/13

[john pike]

 

updated fax

 

looks to have the low slightly further west  but this is for 06 as opposed to 12 so difficult to work on

 

the low is a litlle lower 965 as opposed to 968

 

waiting until the 12z now to hopefully be more confident on windspeeds

 

rain is a different issue that looks bad

[Captain Shortwave]

The major concern for me here is given how previous systems have developed, the chance of a  squall line developing along the rainband must be pretty high here. If we get one of them we could easily see a 10-15 spell of very strong winds along with torrential rain and hail. Driving home from work tomorrow is going to be fun 

[Snowangel-MK]

Yellow Warning of Rain for London & South East England :

 

East Sussex, Hampshire, Isle of Wight, West Sussex, Brighton and Hove, Portsmouth, Southampton, Surrey, Bracknell Forest, Oxfordshire, Reading, West Berkshire, Wokingham, Buckinghamshire, Greater London, Kent, Slough, Windsor and Maidenhead, Medway & Milton Keynes

 

Yellow Warning of Rain for East of England :

 

Hertfordshire, Central Bedfordshire, Essex, Luton, Thurrock & Southend-on-Sea

 

A spell of heavy rainfall is expected to affect parts of southern England and South Wales during Monday. This will fall onto saturated ground and lead to a risk of some flooding. Gale to severe gale force winds will be an added hazard, with the potential for very strong gusts across coastal areas.

 

The public should be prepared for the likelihood of some significant disruption due to the combined hazards of heavy rainfall and high winds.

 

The rainfall should clear southeast England on Tuesday morning, with the winds moderating from the west

 

Issued at:

1226 on Sun 22 Dec 2013

 

Valid from:

0700 on Mon 23 Dec 2013

 

Valid to:

0900 on Tue 24 Dec 2013

 

A deep area of low pressure will sweep an active frontal system across England and Wales on Monday. This will bring 20-40 mm rainfall quite widely, with over 60 mm likely across parts of the high ground of southern England and South Wales. Falling onto saturated ground, this will bring the risk of both surface water and river flooding.

 

Meanwhile, south to southwesterly winds will increase with gusts 70-80 mph likely around exposed coasts, particularly along the English Channel. Further inland, gusts of 50-60 mph are likely through the amber area, with a lower risk of gusts reaching 70 mph - more especially across southeast England during the evening.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?regionName=se&from=rss&sn=32976D6E-1CF5-ED11-C3D4-0AC01E6E17C3_7_SE&tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1387756800

[Steve C]

Just looked at Brightlingsea's expected winds (near me) which were updated at midday. Early hours of Tuesday showing sustained 41mph, gusting 64. I'm sorry, but what warrants a yellow warning to me...

[Snowangel-MK]

Amber Warning of Rain for London & South East England :

 

East Sussex, Brighton and Hove, Isle of Wight, West Sussex, Hampshire, Kent, Portsmouth, Southampton, Surrey, Greater London & Medway

 

Amber Warning of Rain for East of England :

 

Essex & Thurrock

 

 

A spell of heavy rainfall is expected to affect parts of southern England and South Wales during Monday. This will fall onto saturated ground and lead to a risk of some flooding. Gale to severe gale force winds will be an added hazard, with the potential for very strong gusts across coastal areas.

 

The public should be prepared for the likelihood of some significant disruption due to the combined hazards of heavy rainfall and high winds.

 

The rainfall should clear southeast England on Tuesday morning, with the winds moderating from the west.

 

Issued at:

1226 on Sun 22 Dec 2013

 

Valid from:

0700 on Mon 23 Dec 2013

 

Valid to:

0900 on Tue 24 Dec 2013

 

A deep area of low pressure will sweep an active frontal system across England and Wales on Monday. This will bring 20-40 mm rainfall quite widely, with over 60 mm likely across parts of the high ground of southern England and South Wales. Falling onto saturated ground, this will bring the risk of both surface water and river flooding.

 

Meanwhile, south to southwesterly winds will increase with gusts 70-80 mph likely around exposed coasts, particularly along the English Channel. Further inland, gusts of 50-60 mph are likely through the amber area, with a lower risk of gusts reaching 70 mph - more especially across southeast England during the evening.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?regionName=se&from=rss&sn=D46A6009-208A-AC8F-6D38-1A3464C89EA8_1_SE&tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1387843200

[JennyJane1]

One of the things I'm wondering about is the old piers around the coastline, most of which have already taken a battering this year.

Cromer, Southend, Brighton, Southwold, probably some others.If the wind and rain strikes them again they must be in serious danger of collapse or major damage.Its a shame from a cultural point of view.

 

Also there must be a strong risk of power cuts again, it would be sensible to once more find your torches and emergency equipment just in case.

Edited December 22, 2013 by JennyJane1

[Keraunic]

I wish the MO would make their ruddy minds up. One minuet EA is in the area for warnings then next time you look it's not.

Just have to wait and see what happens I suppose.

[john pike]

hi k

 

wait for the updated fax charts later

 

they may help

 

however this is a typical low which is difficult to pin down exactly

 

i would expect the warnings to be amended more than once today as they get updates

[JennyJane1]

sudden massive clattering against the window.and strong wind.

 

I think that's hail, sorry, I can't get up to look at it and confirm, maybe someone else in this area can tell us.

 

temperature in here has dropped quite a lot as well.

 

its now come over very dark as well.

Edited December 22, 2013 by JennyJane1

[Steve C]

Just checked Felixstowe too - no warnings of any description, but predicting winds of 43, gusting 67mph, early Tuesday morning, from Midday update. Definitely an inconsistency there to me. They are also showing many hours of winds gusting in the region of 60mph.

Edited December 22, 2013 by Steve C

[JennyJane1]

Hi..we've had two showers of hail today - zero rumbles though unless you count my belly lol.

I was just going to say that there was something outside now which sounded like distant thunder...........must be your belly then.

 

Seriously though it did sound like there was a clap of thunder somewhere nearby.

[Keraunic]

hi k wait for the updated fax charts later they may help however this is a typical low which is difficult to pin down exactly i would expect the warnings to be amended more than once today as they get updates

Thanks, John. When do the updates come out?

[john pike]

hi k

 

around 6 ish

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Peeps don't be fooled by people saying it's not bad blah blah it's over.. Typical trolls.. Tomorrow is going to be wet and very windy! 65mph over land 70-80 on the coast.. Stay safe! Could even get a 70mph over land!

[JennyJane1]

what i don't understand is why this storm hasn't had the media attention that the last one got, even days before (with the exception of the daily express which was forecasting it last week), unless its that this one doesn't coincide with the high tides like the last one did.

 

However this one still seems dangerous enough that it would catch the media's attention.

[tinybill]

what i don't understand is why this storm hasn't had the media attention that the last one got, even days before (with the exception of the daily express which was forecasting it last week), unless its that this one doesn't coincide with the high tides like the last one did.

 

However this one still seems dangerous enough that it would catch the media's attention.

well just  been reading  our friends  in the Scotland tread  they getting a  bit worried   up there to what is coming

[Hammer]

Jenny the millions of trees not having leaves is one reason less attention, that's not to say this is correct approach by media & with amount of people travelling let's hope they don't regret not covering this storm as widely. A storm in October likely a greater threat than December.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Latest model run throws the low further south and a double middle...

This means 70mph gusts more likely now inland expect the met waited for this run to update the wind warnings!

Edited December 22, 2013 by Surrey

[JennyJane1]

Jenny the millions of trees not having leaves is one reason less attention, that's not to say this is correct approach by media & with amount of people travelling let's hope they don't regret not covering this storm as widely. A storm in October likely a greater threat than December.

Ah, I didn't know that generally an October storm is more threatening.

 

I've just been reading about the great storm of November/December 1703 which decimated parts of the UK.

 

I hope the storm isn't as bad as what I'm reading into from the posts I can understand on this forum (some of the very technical analysis is too difficult for me to follow).

well just  been reading  our friends  in the Scotland tread  they getting a  bit worried   up there to what is coming

I am going to go and read that now.Interesting to see what other regions are making of it.

[stun12]

It's quite calm here now after yesterday's wind and rain, which cleared to blue skies at about 11am today, shortly after I'd finished taking the doggies out for a walk in the woods (they missed it yesterday because it was just too inclement). The poor Westie we're looking after for a few weeks while their owners are visiting family in America is not really white at all any more - I hope he doesn't mind being bathed. The retrievers just get their legs a bit muddy and wipe it off on the sofas and rugs, so that's OK then.

 

Almost everything done for Christmas - just a quick Sainsbury's run early tomorrow and pick up the bird from the local butcher (though she's actually doing the shopping :oops). Mentioned that she should probably aim to get home by lunchtime, as it may get a bit breezy.

Edited December 22, 2013 by stun12

[tinybill]

this  the  first storm over scotland 935  mb

 

 

and  the  next  one looks  more south reading 960 at the  moment could cause problem down south  on boxing day

[Tom Montalbano]

The peak of tomorrow nights gales along southern and some eastern coastal areas of our region look likely between midnight and 3 a.m, with the strongest winds over by dawn.

So a similar scenario then to the St.Jude's event with the worst of the winds during the overnight period, with the hope that any damage is kept to an absolute minimum.

Tom.

Edited December 22, 2013 by Kentish CZ

[saint]

One issue could be that a lot of tress weakened by St Jude, even if they're not in leaf now, could come down when faced with the strength of the wind tomorrow. Thankfully my last night shifts before Christmas is tonight, so I will be tucked up in bed tomorrow night while it rages outside!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

So most of us under 3 warnings now..

Amber for rain

Yellow for rain

Yellow for wind

Most warnings I have seen in our area for a long time!

Time to batten down people!

[JennyJane1]

One issue could be that a lot of tress weakened by St Jude, even if they're not in leaf now, could come down when faced with the strength of the wind tomorrow. Thankfully my last night shifts before Christmas is tonight, so I will be tucked up in bed tomorrow night while it rages outside!

yes, that would be a concern.plus the roots weakened by the rain.I guess another concern if there is a lot of rain forecast, is for more flash flooding.