Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

[weather eater]

Re the GEM not bad but when was it ever close at that range, what the ECM does is of far more interest.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

OK let draw a line in the sand & move on. All posts & types welcomed whatever level.....

[jvenge]

Cold on here usually means 850 temperatures below -5 (the closer to -10 uppers the better) and 2m temperatures at 3 degrees or below with ice days being the holy grail.

 

Okay, so it means comfortably below the average CET.

 

That helps, cheers.

 

Now, what's the definition of mild and very mild? ;-)

[terrier]

Looking at the gfs gem and ukmo it's going to be a long road I feel to a cold outbreak for the uk. But I'm sure frosty will pick out a t360 chart showing cold lol. All joking apart it's not looking great hopefully a slight window mid week to dry out slightly before we see more problems into following week.

[johnholmes]

Maybe a slower reaction to what GFS is showing might help a clearer understanding of what it is predicting and then a more leisurely look to see if its latest output is logical from a meteorological view?

Forget the surface detail even at 144h and look at the upper air. Does that logically fit what the majority of models have been predicting. Out to 72h and the upper pattern is fairly solid, that is a confluent trough close/over the UK.

Is what is being predicted beyond that looking realistic, is it similar to previous outputs. If the answer is yes to both then it is probably correct?

Beyond that and it really is a waste of time looking at surface detail. Any model getting the upper air correct at 144h and still correct at 240h with anything higher than 60% is doing well. Below that level, especially by the time it is predicting pattern for the surface, and it WILL decrease in accuracy-that is fact

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010512/ECH1-96.GIF?05-0

 

good start out of the gates from the ECM- getting good ridging into Eastern Greenland & the low over the UK sinking south-

 

Watch that area developing off the NE states ( Just off the NE coast in between 1030 & 1025) - want that to dig towards the west of the azores-

 

S

Edited January 5, 2014 by Steve Murr

[Panayiotis]

The NAVGEM also very close to what we want...

[Cloud 10]

Is that a UK only ECM chart i see before me? 

 

 

 

[SMU]

Is that a UK only ECM chart i see before me? 

 

ECU1-96.GIF

 

Yes Mteociel have updated the links

Well don Silvian!!

 

 

Good 120--  look close at the low digging & the start of the inflection point ahead of it...

 

S

[cold snap]

Finally balanced at 120 on the ECM don't want to see them lows phase together ,big 144 incoming

[Purga]

Nasty HP over France bodes ill for UK cold

 

[Radiating Dendrite]

Just seen the GFS 12z - everything further west again in hi res.

 

Low res looked a dogs dinner, which is to be expected.

[Ice Day]

144 on ECM.  Different from earlier, good or bad though?  Heights shooting north is best hope IMO

 

Edited January 5, 2014 by Ice Day

[SMU]

Watch for the high development to start at 144 in the atlantic-

 

that low should deepen but rapidly hit a brick wall-

 

S

[Mucka]

 

Much better than UKMO IMO and light years away from what GFS is showing for a 7 day chart. Pretty close to GEM though.

Edited January 5, 2014 by Mucka

[cold snap]

Not bad for cold air at 144 to be introduced ,now we need a big push from the east at the next time scale

[Ice Day]

As Barry Davies once said, interesting!

 

 

And look at that cold pooling to our east.  Lovely stuff

 

Edited January 5, 2014 by Ice Day

[Wilxy]

Wow so close at 168h intresting chart for sure

[That ECM]

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/2879/ECH1-168_mie1.GIF

Over, under or through?

[Matty M]

Looking interesting...

 

[cold snap]

At 168 it's interesting ,Atlantic trying to get in

Cold uppers building from east

[Panayiotis]

JMA looking good too!

[Mucka]

 

Looking pretty good. I would love to see some energy forced SE as well as N on this ridge from here as that would probably be the final ingredient required to set up a cold flow by mid month.

Edited January 5, 2014 by Mucka

[karlos1983]

As Barry Davies once said, interesting!

 

 

And look at that cold pooling to our east.  Lovely stuff

 

 

Thats the 00z

[Mucka]

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/2879/ECH1-168_mie1.GIF

Over, under or through?

 

Not over and not through, though possibly not under either. 

Not in the next frame anyway.

Edited January 5, 2014 by Mucka