Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

[lorenzo]

GloSea5 indeed does exactly that. It has taken skill level into a different order.

 What did it learn from last years stratospheric warming I wonder...wrt current wave events

[terrier]

Just a quick word on the ECM and gfs model. I would say so far this winter the gfs has out performed the ECM. So people saying I wonder when gfs will come on board with the ECM I wouldn't be so sure. As like I said earlier the ECM has lead us up the garden path too many times this winter. Until I see the USA warm up abit I will stick with the gfs outlook of Atlantic driven for time been.

[ANYWEATHER]

Tell me something please guys.

1) With all these models using super computers (yet still not really able to forecast more than a week reliably), are the computers updated very often to "learn" from previous weather patterns and actual outcomes using new mathematical models? Thus making the predictions more reliable?

 

2) With these lows possibly in the frame, if they do not turn to snow, does it mean more windy and wet weather again, or just wet?

 

Thank you guys

Woody

Models will only forecast accurately for a couple of days, the Lows of the Atlantic will generally blow mild weather, but look West and you get wet and windy weather, perhaps snow to upland areas.... if we get some cold incursions thanks to the Greenland  snow train, we may see snow across the Nation! Look North East for some proper cold...Powder Snow etc....  

Edited January 5, 2014 by ANYWEATHER

[Ukwoody]

GloSea5 indeed does exactly that. It has taken skill level into a different order.

Thank you Ian!

[cooling climate]

Well after a good dose of prozac and a much better strat profiile from the GFS 12z run

I again feel much more optimistic with regard to my posts over the last several days with

the prospect of higher pressure  to our north/northeast  during the last half of January.

The ECM run tonight was very good and although we did not quite get there the trend is

for pressure to build to the north/northeast and lower pressure to the south with deep

cold imbedded over Europe gradually moving west.

I would not be at all surprised to see a Mr Murr's sausage shape high set up to the north

of the UK on through Scandinavia into western Russia before the month is out.

[Froze were the Days]

Yet to be won over by this possible evolving Scandi High on the ECM, frankly people have been dismissive of the CFS but if you have been watching the 1/9 month runs regularly (Oct/Nov) it hasn't been far off the money (and I'm not talking about the strange height anomaly charts posted by certain members back in November which showed a degree of HLB. December showed largely zonal and January mixed with attempts at North East blocking (largely around mid-month) and unfortunately more often than not failed - is this one of those attempts?

Edited January 5, 2014 by Froze were the Days

[Mucka]

The UKMO still has that dig south in the Atlantic, although not as defined as the ECM and further east. its still an evolving scenario, it does have a shortwave that will run se, its small but just to the west of Oslo at T144hrs that will reinforce the ridge to the ne:

 

As long as the GFS doesn't verify then we will get there eventually!.

Hi Nick.

We will have to agree to disagree on that one which is fine since we seem to agree 99% of the time.

ECM, JMA and GEM are all better than UKMO  at 144 IMO and they are all still struggling to keep the pattern far enough West but it is all academic and only opinion. I'm sure tomorrows run will be better anyway.

As for GFS, well that seems unlikely to verify thankfully.

so far looks like a slow burner and that's fine but if a little undercut begins to be modelled then the excitement will begin in earnest.

[bluearmy]

Just a quick word on the ECM and gfs model. I would say so far this winter the gfs has out performed the ECM. So people saying I wonder when gfs will come on board with the ECM I wouldn't be so sure. As like I said earlier the ECM has lead us up the garden path too many times this winter. Until I see the USA warm up abit I will stick with the gfs outlook of Atlantic driven for time been.

 

thing is terrier, on the last notable occasion (failed northerly), gem and initally, jma, jumped ship first. ecm was left on its own. this time, gfs is in ecm's position with no support. as i said earlier, i am troubled by the lack of decent gefs members on the 12z suite but the 06z and 00z ens had quite a few blocked members so i can forget one ensemble suite. 

[MR EXTREMES]

It's,still a fail no sw injected se.

Still height way to high and dominant into Europe.

This set up will settle things down but unlikely to get the coldest air west enough.

It's close but still unlikely mlb is the middle ground and most likely outcome.

[draztik]

Had a quick look through the ensemble mean from the Canadian ensembles, and they deviate in quite a wide margin from gefs. Will wait until later to see how individual members perform, but its clear the majority want blocking to our east.

it really is the gfs against all the rest. Will be looking at the 18z with interest, to see if we get a climb-down!

as expected, naefs similar to gfs, with the gefs mean skewing the data set in its favour.

anomaly and mean pressure t168 naefs 12z

Edited January 5, 2014 by draztik

[Biggin]

To be honest the models tonight including the ukmo just shows that we need to drop the hlb idea mid lat block is the most like but the form horse would be a more zonal outlook but relaxed. Pressure continuing to be high to the south into Europe. The straw clutching is now getting a little tiresome.There very little including the teleconnections to ramp. About.

And your gloating is too. A model post would be nice

[lassie23]

48 hours of bad weather across the UK according to the GFS. Thunder, lightning and heavy rain/hail across London at the moment 8.19pm. Renewed freeze over America tomorrow and Tuesday with possible record low temps.

[SE Blizzards]

Yet to be won over by this possible evolving Scandi High on the ECM, frankly people have been dismissive of the CFS but if you have been watching the 1/9 month runs regularly (Oct/Nov) it hasn't been far off the money (and I'm not talking about the strange height anomaly charts posted by certain members back in November which showed a degree of HLB. December showed largely zonal and January mixed with attempts at North East blocking (largely around mid-month) and unfortunately more often than not failed - is this one of those attempts?

 

Not sure if the CFS is at all reliable to be honest, have found that out for myself over time, however it will be interesting to see if the CFS is far off the money or not with its latest 1 month run (6z) as it has quite a cold spell for the UK lasting for several days starting from around the 11th January.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=144&mode=0&carte=0&run=10

[draztik]

And your gloating is too. A model post would be nice

he articulated his view pretty well, with or without a chart. He just doesn't agree with the apparent consensus; that doesn't mean he's on the wind up or gloating. He is merely giving us his view, which is what this forum is all about! Cheers.

[Biggin]

Those cold uppers to our East are tantalisingly close at 216.  Really encouraging trends!

 

Good to see the intense cold over US  Detiorating a bit.

[Biggin]

he articulated his view pretty well, with or without a chart. He just doesn't agree with the apparent consensus; that doesn't mean he's on the wind up or gloating. He is merely giving us his view, which is what this forum is all about! Cheers.

Cheers

[Frosty_wsm]

To be honest the models tonight including the ukmo just shows that we need to drop the hlb idea mid lat block is the most like but the form horse would be a more zonal outlook but relaxed. Pressure continuing to be high to the south into Europe. The straw clutching is now getting a little tiresome. There very little including the teleconnections to ramp. About.

Hmm throwing accusations of straw clutching around, would you kindly point out the straw clutching posts for me as I've been reading this thread and don't see any, just people discussing the model output and making reasoned assumptions about how things could turn out if the models haven't got things 100% correct, which they no doubt haven't.

[SMU]

Evening-

 

Just a post to clear up this misconception around Cold or even Extreme cold being in america & UK not being able to get cold-

 

Thats not the case.

 

Take Feb 63 a 0.81  + PNA Pattern which is very positive with charts like this

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1963/archivesnh-1963-2-3-0-0.png

 

very very cold air moving into the northern states

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1963/archivesnh-1963-2-3-12-1.png

 

but as you can see blocking over greenland.

 

Saying waiting for america to warm up or the cold to abate is totally meaningless-

 

The whole pattern is part of a bigger picture around the strength & depth of the polar vortex & where the core of the low heights land-

IF the core is close to baffin then usually you cannot get a greenland high, but you can still get a mid lattitiude scandi high.

 

 

Anyway, onto ECM ensembles

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010512/EDH1-168.GIF?05-0

 

more importantly the BEST varifying ensembles not having a bar of the useless GFS.

 

even at 240 with a washed out 10 day mean you can see the pattern of undercutting.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010512/EDH1-240.GIF?05-0

 

& the T2M's

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/PLUIM_06260_NWT.png

The control & Operational good agreement & strong clustering below.

 

S

Edited January 5, 2014 by Steve Murr

[Gibby]

Good evening everyone. Here is tonight's report on the 12 noon outputs of the big 5 weather modules for today Sunday January 5th 2014.

 

All models show a large Atlantic storm crossing ENE slowly over the Atlantic and towards an area North of Scotland by midweek. Several bands of squally rain will cross East overnight perhaps with hail and thunder before things settled into a showery WSW flow through tomorrow, Tuesday and Wednesday with the threat of more persistent rain for a time midweek in the South as a wave feature runs East close to Southern England. Pressure will rise soon after midweek with some welcome dry and bright weather, particularly in the South and East though the North and west under a slacker Westerly pressure gradient will see a continued risk of rainfall though these areas will share in the less windy conditions too.

 

GFS then shows a very changeable pattern through the remainder of it's run with things turning distinctly unsettled and potentially stormy at times again towards the end of the run as deep Low pressure and westerly gales re-establishes itself. Temperatures will stay near to average or marginally below at times in the wake of passing Low pressure.

 

UKMO for next Saturday shows Hiigh pressure slipping slowly away to the SE with a slack SW flow developing under slowly falling pressure with the advance of Atlantic fronts towards the West late in the day with potential rain.

 

GEM tonight shows a quieter spell late next week before Low pressure regains control, sliding SE over the UK in response to High pressure over Scandinavia. The UK would see spells of rain followed by wintry showers with things becoming rather cold in the North towards the end of the run although probably only briefly.

 

NAVGEM tonight also shows High pressure to the SE with attendant drier conditions down here although troughing remains perilously close to Northern and Western areas threatening further rain at times towards the end of next weekend.

 

ECM today shows tentative signs still of drying the weather up from next weekend as High pressure moves close to SE Britain and maybe further towards Scandinavia later. However, the Atlantic is not dead and the threat of Atlantic fronts into the west and NW at times later remains very real. Quieter and less windy weather though could lead to frost and fog patches under any clearer night time skies later.

 

The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart shows a bias of lower pressure to the west of Iceland and generally higher pressure towards Europe. However, there is no definitive suggestion of which pattern is gaining momentum with something of a stalemate developed between colder continental air over Europe and milder Atlantic rain bearing troughs and attendant rain close to the West from many members. It is an indication when strolling between the 9 and 10 day mean charts that changes and trends are painfully slow and hard to call.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

 

The GFS Ensembles have reversed this morning's trend of the somewhat colder trend and have returned a very ordinary set tonight with rain at times throughout the run with a very Atlantic based pattern. There are a few anticyclonic members in the mix too offering something rather drier if not especially cold. 

 

The GFS Jet Stream Flow  shows the current flow becoming much disrupted by the end of this week with multiple fingers of flow scattered around the North Atlantic and UK before a tendency for it to feed strongest towards a position South of the UK in a split flow develops through Week 2.

 

In Summary tonight GFS is not a pretty sight maintaining a very unsettled and Atlantic based pattern with plenty of rain around and wind too later. It's ensembles are not wonderful either with very average temperature values. However, all other output does suggest a break from the wet and windy theme of recently though with the Atlantic fronts and Lows perilously close to our Western shores at times we may well have to be patient for any major shift towards a more wintry flavour than that on offer of drier and more useable weather with night frosts and fog a possibility in the South and East.

[SMU]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014010512/gfsnh-0-138.png?12

 

Lets hav som fun with the GFS model for the nxt 36 hours- 6 runs

 

remember how nearly every model followed the ECMs track for the inland runner ( NB A lot of forgetful GFS fans out there)

 

Now open the 2 windows- look at the GFS above ^^^^ & the ECM 120

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010512/ECH1-120.GIF?05-0

 

look where ECM has the low digging ( due south of winnipeg )

 

GFS gets a circulation in the central atlantic.

 

Thats around 1000-1500 difference at just day 5.

 

I give it 6 runs to teh GFS has it in the right place.

 

S

[johnholmes]

Just a quick word on the ECM and gfs model. I would say so far this winter the gfs has out performed the ECM. So people saying I wonder when gfs will come on board with the ECM I wouldn't be so sure. As like I said earlier the ECM has lead us up the garden path too many times this winter. Until I see the USA warm up abit I will stick with the gfs outlook of Atlantic driven for time been.

 

I would be interested to see your statistics that lead you to post the above. The only one I can see is the northern hemisphere 500mb checks done by NOAA and both 5 and 6 day outlooks show ECMWF 1st each time, GFS 2nd on the 5 day but just loses out by a tiny fraction to UK Met at day 6?

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/new_acz6.html

Edited January 5, 2014 by johnholmes

[Timmytour]

My concern for this winter is that it will end up being like the winter of 2006/7. I spent that year working in Zurich and in preparation for what i hoped would be a normal Swiss winter but a memorable one for me, I bought all the warm weather gear I thought would be required.

In the event it must have been one of the mildest snowless winters they have ever had. I think even London had as much snow as Zurich did that year.

But looking at the charts I sense that the lows were making further progress eastward that year than the models show them to be making over the course of the next few days. Therefore, although someone who always likes to see the GFS get onboard before raising hopes, I am optimistic that things will change.

Let's hope the 18z is the big GFS shift.... the shepherd run that gets plenty of sheep runs following it. I'll be particulary looking around T120 and hoping to see distinct changes flicking between the current and previous run

[weather eater]

Tell me something please guys.

1) With all these models using super computers (yet still not really able to forecast more than a week reliably), are the computers updated very often to "learn" from previous weather patterns and actual outcomes using new mathematical models? Thus making the predictions more reliable?

 

2) With these lows possibly in the frame, if they do not turn to snow, does it mean more windy and wet weather again, or just wet?

 

Thank you guys

Woody

While mindful of IFs post regarding GloSea5, the other models GFS, ECM, etc do not use previous weather patterns as such, by that I mean that they don’t hold records of what happened on such and such a date, make comparisons and recalculate future synoptics based on what happened in the past, they are a pure mathematical model, they simulate the climate, in simple terms the latest data goes in and a result comes out, obviously they are constantly monitored in regards their performance and updated usually every few years.

[Radiating Dendrite]

Not long till the 18z GFS now.......fingers crossed it has been doing shots with the Euros!

 

Hoping to see continued westward progression and some energy going under the developing block.......maybe a Murr sausage in FI

Edited January 5, 2014 by Radiating Dendrite

[stratty]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014010512/gfsnh-0-138.png?12

 

Lets hav som fun with the GFS model for the nxt 36 hours- 6 runs

 

remember how nearly every model followed the ECMs track for the inland runner ( NB A lot of forgetful GFS fans out there)

 

Now open the 2 windows- look at the GFS above ^^^^ & the ECM 120

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010512/ECH1-120.GIF?05-0

 

look where ECM has the low digging ( due south of winnipeg )

 

GFS gets a circulation in the central atlantic.

 

Thats around 1000-1500 difference at just day 5.

 

I give it 6 runs to teh GFS has it in the right place.

 

S

 

.............can we play the game with two charts from the same time rather than 18hrs apart please Steve? Just easier to see