Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Well the GFS ensembles have been getting colder and colder over the weekend , plenty of members going for between -5 and -10 850's and some going as low as -15 . Although the 12z op is unsettled , the PV is no where near as strong as it has been and this shows up well on the 12z. The GFS has been trying to get rid of the Arctic high for ages but it keeps having to bring it back , as it is still there and holding on , probably due to low obs in that area .... 

 

Chris

[Summer Sun]

What is the UKMO like as I'm on phone

 

Only out to t96 and its pretty similar to the 00z run

Edited January 5, 2014 by Summer Sun

[SMU]

Can someone explain the logic behind the UK needing a warm up in the US to see colder weather here? Oh, I get how the pattern over that way is chucking storms at us, but I just don't understand the science behind saying the UK can't be cold while the US is cold.

 

There is no logic im afraid- people not quite understanding what they are saying confuses other people.

 

GFS 12z-  Most progressive ever, one has only got to look at the last few days to see that it is hopeless when it comes to blocking-

 

todays T 96 12z GFS

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014010512/gfsnh-0-96.png?12

 

the 12z GFS 4 Days ago for the same timeframe= no blocking at `192

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfsnh-2014010112-0-192.png?12

 

No UKMO Past 96 yet.....

 

S

[That ECM]

120 UKMO is out!!

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/521/UW42-7_inn3.GIF

[Summer Sun]

120 UKMO is out!!http://images.meteociel.fr/im/521/UW42-7_inn3.GIF

 

Thats t42 00z run............

 

..........from 2010

Edited January 5, 2014 by Summer Sun

[snow1975]

120 UKMO is out!!http://images.meteociel.fr/im/521/UW42-7_inn3.GIF

Back to the Future

[bobbydog]

i reckon its after this point-

 

 

that the run becomes 'over progressive' it looks like atlantic HP is trying to nose into greenland at a few points during the run. it never makes it into low res.

 

however, FI it may be, but back to zonal?

 

at the end of the run we get this-

 

 

yep, big low pressure system over us but whats coming along behind it?

 

nothing. except a ridge of HP nosing towards greenland.........

 

oh, and a big arctic high.....

Edited January 5, 2014 by bobbydog

[weather eater]

Whatever the GFS is upto I'd be very wary of this run, continuity upstream is non-existent here, its all over the place over the USA and Canada.

One thing for certain if the GFS is wrong it’s going to have to get dragged kicking and screaming to give up zonal let alone model HLB. It’s going to be an interesting ECM this evening, one thing for certain, no winter is compete until we have a major Mexican standoff between the GFS and the ECM.

[Summer Sun]

UKMO is finally out

 

 

Something less stormy finally coming into the reliable time-frame now

 

Edited January 5, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Matty M]

UKMO ain't easy on the eyes. ECMWF to save the day...

[IDO]

The GFS Control run at T126 is as bad as it's op:    

 

Both on the fast track compared to recent runs.

[jvenge]

UKMO ain't easy on the eyes. ECMWF to save the day...

 

Well, it's an improvement on what we have now ;-)

[SMU]

UKMO 144 is like the ECM

 

S

[draztik]

UKMO ain't easy on the eyes. ECMWF to save the day...

i think the ecm will continue in the same vein, its ensembles are certainly on board with the idea of blocking! Give it a few more runs tho, lets be kind now oh I'm just teasing, i think!! Edited January 5, 2014 by draztik

[Ice Day]

UKMO 144 is like the ECM

 

S

 

Indeed.  In fact, a little better I would say (allowing that UKMO is 12 hours later!)

 

 

Edited January 5, 2014 by Ice Day

[weather eater]

UKMO 144 is like the ECM

 

S

Arguably a little better in fact, slightly quicker evolution as well.

 

dam Ice day you beat me to it

Edited January 5, 2014 by weather eater

[IDO]

The ridge on the GEM T90 is less amplified than the 0z run:

 

12z:   0z: 

[IDO]

By T120 the GEM has taken a big step back towards GFS/ECM:

 

12z:  0z: 

[Bobby]

The 12z GEFS mean is more zonal, cyclonic looking than the 06z at day 8

 

 

[draztik]

the Canadian at t108 doesn't look so rosy tonight. Will be interesting to see how this evolves.

looks like being a battle between the American and euros ( depending on the ecm of course) tonight

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=0&carte=1&archive=0

 

BIG  chipper GEM run coming I feel-

 

People looking in the wrong place need to focussing in on the low T 138 Digging south towards the azores as it will encourage high pressure north on the eastern flank & force energy south into benelux

 

S

Edited January 5, 2014 by Steve Murr

[terrier]

Don't mean to be funny but how many times has the ECM lead us up the garden path this winter. With people slating the gfs. Only in the end the gfs has proved to be correct model. In my opinion the ECM has gone down in my estimations this winter.

[nick sussex]

The ridge on the GEM T90 is less amplified than the 0z run:

 

12z: gem-0-90.png  0z: gem-0-102.png

Big difference is that the GEM doesn't pile the purple low heights eastward and look at its dig south of the jet in the mid Atlantic, super stuff from the GEM.

[Cloud 10]

Halftime in the model output cup,and the scandi high has a 2-1 lead. 

 

UKMO 144hrs

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014010512/UN144-21.GIF?05-18

 

NAVGEM 144 hrs

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2014010512/navgemnh-0-144.png?05-17

 

 

 

 

GFS 144 hrs  boooo!

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014010512/gfsnh-0-144.png?12

[MR EXTREMES]

To be honest the models tonight including the ukmo just shows that we need to drop the hlb idea mid lat block is the most like but the form horse would be a more zonal outlook but relaxed. Pressure continuing to be high to the south into Europe. The straw clutching is now getting a little tiresome.

There very little including the teleconnections to ramp. About.

Edited January 5, 2014 by emotional rollercoaster