Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

[Wilxy]

That was a very entertaining run from the ECM we get very close, but only just about lost, but very good signs and happy with the ECM tonight

[Mucka]

A very good trend from the ECM, its not a big deal if we don't see a deep cold easterly here, the key is the earlier timeframe. If you take the GFS out of the equation then overall a positive evening for coldies.

 

If we can manage even more dig south and a more elongated troughing set up to the west then the Scandi high should land.

 

I would add UKMO to that. People keep telling me the 144 chart is okay but not for me. Weak heights, too far East, no amplification to the West, missing trigger low for rebuilding ridge. Other than that it's a stonking chart. 

On the plus side JMA, GEM, ECM tick all the above boxes.

 

ECM ends in a bit of a stalemate. Let's hope we can get some undercut modelled tomorrow to go with the high.

Edited January 5, 2014 by Mucka

[Man With Beard]

Quite surprised by ECM T240, would have expected the Scandi High to hold better than that

[Gaz1985]

Poor old UK just too far west. Close but no cigar!

 

 

Slightly milder air creeping back in, but it's only 1 run

 

Edited January 5, 2014 by Gaz1985

[Purga]

Also proven you make knee jerk reactions to early stages of runs.

Nope, I stand by my comment, pressure needs to fall to the South / SE of the UK for the cold to be advected west to our shores properly otherwise we will end up in a nomans land as we've seen many times before with the cold not quite making it.

 

The ECM is a good run but as I said we're not quite there yet but moving in the right direction.

Edited January 5, 2014 by Purga

[ukpaul]

The one concern I have at the moment is the thing that has scuppered a couple of potential cold spells already this winter, a low moving from south to north and interacting with another west to east low when, without that interaction, there could easily be a trigger low.

 

It would be incredibly depressing if the same thing was to happen again.

[weather eater]

Not bad from the ECM, C+ must work harder, I have to say though, neither it nor the flat looking GFS has changed my mind, zonal running out of steam, MLB still looking the most likely outcome at the moment, HP close to or over the UK.

[nick sussex]

I would add UKMO to that. People keep telling me the 144 chart is okay but not for me. Weak heights, too far East, no amplification to the West, missing trigger low for rebuilding ridge. Other than that it's a stonking chart. 

On the plus side JMA, GEM, ECM tick all the above boxes

The UKMO still has that dig south in the Atlantic, although not as defined as the ECM and further east. its still an evolving scenario, it does have a shortwave that will run se, its small but just to the west of Oslo at T144hrs that will reinforce the ridge to the ne:

 

As long as the GFS doesn't verify then we will get there eventually!.

[Chris K]

Yes although it didn't quite get there at the end, the initial stages are encouraging and we have to remember that is 10 days away and there will be changes....hopefully for the better. Another 12 hours to wait for the next haha.

Would just like to say Steve M's posts are particularly useful to follow as the run comes out if you are learning like me, as it helps to know what to look out for. Not forgetting others as well.

[Man With Beard]

If there were any more westward corrections on future runs (and it is a big if), then those cold uppers could end up right over us!

Hope you're right but I feel the ECM is often too far west in these situations

[Ali1977]

So, when is the GFS going to pick this trend up, if it's correct that is...

[UV-RAY]

Nope, I stand by my comment, pressure needs to fall to the South / SE of the UK for the cold to be advected west to our shores properly otherwise we will end up in a nomans land as we've seen many times before with the cold not quite making it.

 

The ECM is a good run but as I said we're not quite there yet but moving in the right direction.

A fair assessment  of what is still needed to get the cold to these shores, slowly but surely we do seem to be getting there and over the next few days we should have a much clearer picture. However we all know just how pear shaped events from the east can become, so the usual caveats will apply right down to +72 IMO.

Edited January 5, 2014 by Sceptical Inquirer

[weather eater]

Look at it this way at least the forums rolling a bit now, with something to talk about that’s almost in touching distance and something other than wind and rain.

Edited January 5, 2014 by weather eater

[Radiating Dendrite]

 

A good ECM but we are still missing a trigger low.

 

We need to see energy going under the block (such as the low to the west of Ireland above). At the moment there is still too much energy either going over the high or hitting it head on.

Edited January 5, 2014 by Radiating Dendrite

[draztik]

Roll on 8pm, so the Canadian ensembles can be assessed. NAEFS will prove pretty useless tonight, as its data set will be skewed by the gfs proportion of its input. So lets see how many members support the GEM op.

[Frosty.]

And the GFS is very often too far east, a middle ground would be a good base to build from. I'm not convinced this is all or nothing..our luck must change soon. I think we are going to see some mega cold FI runs shortly..I'm being positive :-)

[Purga]

Look at it this way at least the forums rolling a bit now, with something to talk about that’s almost in touching distance and something other than wind and rain.

And let's face it Nick Sussex is far more entertaining than Stephen Fry!

[ANYWEATHER]

Well at least the Ecm is a friend to the coldies  the second half of the run shows a residual halt to the Atlantic and then the prospect of some proper Winter weather! But Caution is needed though, of course its early days but at least its something to keep our eyes on in the days ahead, Gfs is still in Atlantic overdrive, and I wonder if it will move closer to the Ecm output, Time will tell!!  

 

 

 

[Ukwoody]

Tell me something please guys.

1) With all these models using super computers (yet still not really able to forecast more than a week reliably), are the computers updated very often to "learn" from previous weather patterns and actual outcomes using new mathematical models? Thus making the predictions more reliable?

 

2) With these lows possibly in the frame, if they do not turn to snow, does it mean more windy and wet weather again, or just wet?

 

Thank you guys

Woody

[phil nw.]

Look at it this way at least the forums rolling a bit now, with something to talk about that’s almost in touching distance and something other than wind and rain.

Yes was thinking the same thing WE.

It's good to have some different options after the long Atlantic spell.

Sure we have many runs to go but i like the ECM again this evening and it follows the 00z ECM mean indicating trough disruption se towards Europe and some form of blocking further east.

The GFS whilst it's still slows the Atlantic jet it continues with a weaker westerly flow so we still have doubts on where any block will end up.

[bluearmy]

the end of ecm op has anomolys in the wrong place compared to the 00z mean.  the mean wont be wrong both north and south sp you can either discount the depth of the icelandic low or the height of the euro heights.  normally i would say 'discount the whole run post day 8' but given that the op picked up the euro heights we see to our south this week when the ens were saying they would stay low, i'm reluctant to completely dismiss the op, even at day 10.

 

gfs is a conundrum. not just the op but the ens also.  this is an undercut scenario so maybe we should allow it to fail. i would be far happier to  forget the ops if the ens were offering some cold comfort. the 12z's are noticeably not. (re scandi blocking)

[fergieweather]

Tell me something please guys.1) With all these models using super computers (yet still not really able to forecast more than a week reliably), are the computers updated very often to "learn" from previous weather patterns and actual outcomes using new mathematical models? Thus making the predictions more reliable? 

GloSea5 indeed does exactly that. It has taken skill level into a different order.

[Radiating Dendrite]

Tell me something please guys.

1) With all these models using super computers (yet still not really able to forecast more than a week reliably), are the computers updated very often to "learn" from previous weather patterns and actual outcomes using new mathematical models? Thus making the predictions more reliable?

 

2) With these lows possibly in the frame, if they do not turn to snow, does it mean more windy and wet weather again, or just wet?

 

Thank you guys

Woody

Yes they are updated on a regular basis.

 

The lows are not the ringers of snow at the moment, they are the trigger to getting colder north / easterly air masses.

[Summer Sun]

GFS 12z ensembles don't look too far away from average this evening out to the 21st

 

[Stuie]

Although the GFS continues with the Atlantic flow, it does start to fragment/ease the jet stream around the 13th which seems to be around the predicted time for a potential change in pattern.