Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

[Snowman.]

[shaky]

thats got a a battleground situation written all over it and probably plenty of snow!!

[draztik]

Where is steve murr?I would have been expecting him to be ecstatic right now!!

 

Why would he be ecstatic, just wondering? to see heights shunted east, the Atlantic sweeping through and a return to general zonality.. I'd have thought that would make him rather sad.

[Snowman.]

thats got a a battleground situation written all over it and probably plenty of snow!!

Not cold enough. If that was to happen after having a some cold over UK for some time it would be a different story.

Why would he be ecstatic, just wondering? to see heights shunted east, the Atlantic sweeping through and a return to general zonality.. I'd have thought that would make him rather sad.

 

uhum.

 

Nothing good there.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Why would he be ecstatic, just wondering? to see heights shunted east, the Atlantic sweeping through and a return to general zonality.. I'd have thought that would make him rather sad.

 

Except, who in their right mind would predict with any certainty at all, zonality resuming once we've got that rather nice wedge of heights to the E/NE of us?

 

Oh and to Cecil's question about where the cold would come from.....you may have not noticed the rather large mass of blue and Purple loitering to the E and NE

 

Edited January 6, 2014 by CreweCold

[Snowman31]

Is there a reason why does the UKMO always get stuck?

[shaky]

Why would he be ecstatic, just wondering? to see heights shunted east, the Atlantic sweeping through and a return to general zonality.. I'd have thought that would make him rather sad.

well it does sweep in afterwards but before hand there could be quite a bit of excitement!!and if things change at just 120 hours on the gfs am pretty certain the atlantic sweeping in just like that will change aswell!!

[Cloud 10]

UKMO late as usual 

 

[Snowman.]

 

urghh, more rain.

[shaky]

UKMO late as usual 

 

download.jpg

I dunno why that is!!it seems to happen everyday now!!might aswell keep it at the standard time of 5.30!!

[clark3r]

Not cold enough. If that was to happen after having a some cold over UK for some time it would be a different story.

 

uhum.

 

Nothing good there.

More flooding potential with deep lows lining up!

[weather eater]

12z seems broadly consistent to me, zonal, MLB back to zonal of a more PM variety, much the same as the ECM in its broad projection I would say. I don’t know about backtracks, it just looks like standard inter run variation to me. Still dryer and colder for a time looks pretty likely now, so amen to that.

[Cheshire Freeze]

It would be foolhardy to take any of the NWP output past 120 hrs as gospel in this set up and I'll tell you for why......As Nick S has already pointed out, small changes upstream have huge ramifications across Europe. In this situation there is a sharp tipping point where if the pattern adjusts to or beyond it, it won't be zonal FIs we're viewing but E'ly nirvana charts.

[Snowman31]

GFS fi really can be ridiculous, literally a totally different northern hemisphere pattern every run. It has to be right at some point as it offers every possible solution.

Edited January 6, 2014 by Snowman31

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Except, who in their right mind would predict with any certainty at all, zonality resuming once we've got that rather nice wedge of heights to the E/NE of us?

 

Oh and to Cecil's question about where the cold would come from.....you may have not noticed the rather large mass of blue and Purple loitering to the E and NE

 

Yep CC,i see it buddy

It isn't getting anywhere near the UK though

[Cheshire Freeze]

12z seems broadly consistent to me, zonal, MLB back to zonal of a more PM variety, much the same as the ECM in its broad projection I would say. I don’t know about backtracks, it just looks like standard inter run variation to me. Still dryer and colder for a time looks pretty likely now, so amen to that.

 

6z

 

 

 

 

12z

 

 

 

Half of the major LW features different. That's some inter run variation!

[Snowman.]

Yay!

 

 

Got me screaming for joy.

 

Too bad is its wrong.

[The Eagle]

Is there a reason why does the UKMO always get stuck?

 

It's so good they are afraid to show us.

[warrenb]

I think we can safely say at this point that beyond 120 the GFS has not got a clue.

[UV-RAY]

12z seems broadly consistent to me, zonal, MLB back to zonal of a more PM variety, much the same as the ECM in its broad projection I would say. I don’t know about backtracks, it just looks like standard inter run variation to me. Still dryer and colder for a time looks pretty likely now, so amen to that.

That would tie in the MetO 15 dayers with the emphasis on colder in the North and average in the South. 

[Snowman.]

I think we can safely say at this point that beyond 120 the GFS has not got a clue.

I don't think many models have got a clue.

 

UKMO probably best bet.

[Cheshire Freeze]

It's so good they are afraid to show us.

 

Gives them time to re-write the outlook to include the words 'foot' 'blizzards' 'severe' and 'exceptionally cold'

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

For my money the real issue could be rainfall as Atlantic fronts stall over and just to the east of the UK.

While we are seeing a developing -AO the NAO signal is strong in tandem with the ferocious jet that i just dont see a route to cold.

I'd like to,but i don't....

Maybe the Euros will offer something more 'interesting'...

[igloo]

looks like the gfs is going to explode 920mb low must be a new record surely

 

[shaky]

looks like the gfs is going to explode 920mb low must be a new record surely

 

this is what the gfs does when it decides to lose the plot!!