Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

[MR EXTREMES]

the gem is a thing of beauty

[TSNWK]

What about it?

Looks flatter than the 00z to me at 120.

[AWD]

Ecmwf???

European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts.http://www.ecmwf.int

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

the gem is a thing of beauty

Agreed!!! How does the GEM do in terms of accuracy at that range?

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

Ecmwf???

 

E ssentially  C loudy & M ild & W ithout F rost??

 

Lets hope not!!

[ukpaul]

ECMWF? Not fully out yet but no change by 120h.

[nick sussex]

There are some big differences between the models over the eastern Pacific as early as T72hrs. This effects the amplified wave that moves east and helps to dig the jet south to the west of the UK.

 

IMO because of this FI starts at T72hrs, this is so important to the development of set up to the west. I'll do some maps a bit later on but I'd advise people to wait till tomorrow regardless of what the ECM shows in its later output.

[shaky]

Ecmwf looking good at 120 hours.more like the gfs than ukmo.

[Captain Shortwave]

Interesting chart this is.

Well we now get the undercut but the high is too far north at the moment lols

The rest of the run should be good, the energy has to go south east from Iceland due to the double act of North Scandi high and a building Azores ridge.

Edited January 6, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Cloud 10]

Quite a bit of daylight between the Euro models at 120 hrs.

 

ECM..  UKMO..

[bluearmy]

Ian has told us that the ec ens are struggling with the evolution. we only get to see mean, anomolys and graphical representations so its good to know that there must be a fair spread of themes in there. why the gem 12z solution interests me is that it is indeed a hybrid of all the current modelling. the gem and gefs seem unable to decide if they want to throw a scandi, atlantic or even no ridge at all in week 2. i assume this uncertainty must also be present in the ec ens. hence, no point going overboard on anything right now and try to enjoy the way the nwp slowly gets to grips with whats coming mid jan and beyond.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

God GEM, pleasssssssse!!

Mind you it gives interest as soon as middle of this week

 

 

MetO have their eye on this too....it could be a troublesome for the south.  And this is worthwhile watching.....

 

 

BFTP

[Panayiotis]

JMA looking awesome tonight!!!

EDIT: Not so for the ECM...

Edited January 6, 2014 by Panayiotis

[R.P. McMurphy]

God GEM, pleasssssssse!!

Mind you it gives interest as soon as middle of this week

 

 

MetO have their eye on this too....it could be a troublesome for the south.  And this is worthwhile watching.....

 

 

BFTP

 

Yes, a great GEM chart tonight, and a good post by Bluearmy highlighting the GEM is in fact most models rolled into 1... But at T240 - would rather draw my own than any chance of it verifying, but, a step in the right direction... Lets hope it continues.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

GFS..

 

 

 

Making films... come to life..

 

 

 

[R.P. McMurphy]

Ugh, Oh....

 

[TSNWK]

ECM 168 looks packed with potential to my untrained eye..decent heights over Svalbard and can that energy go under at 192

[Cloud 10]

JMA  at 132 hrs looking blocky to the NE. 

 

[bluearmy]

ecm op showing another solution at day 7. not had this one so far from the model. tbh, i'll let you know if i like it at day 8 ! (it it plausible and might involve those frigid temps to our ne not being wasted on se europe !

[Catacol]

No offense Steve, but I stopped reading after your first few sentences as I knew where your bias and repugnant tone was headed...

I observe all the models and the ensembles. Your bias for cold clouds your overall judgment and your ability to communicate with people who do not always see it as you do.

 

Back to the models, UKMO does not look good for heights to our NE. Wish we could see its next frame.

 

Steve is a definite coldie Draz, and the only crime he is guilty of from time to time is a rather over optimistic view of routes to cold. This winter so far has been dominated by the savagely cold vortex and so all those routes have met dead ends so far.

 

However - he is absolutely right about GFS. It is disregarded by the majority of those who know what they are talking about, and the Americans themselves are so horrified by its underperformance that they have used European experts to help them rebuilt it i come April. It reliability in the medium range is dreadful, and so any zonal outlook portrayed by it beyond 120 hours is always to be taken with a big pinch of salt. It is renowned for an overly progressive outlook over the north Atlantic.

 

Better to base your medium term analysis on charts that we know are more reliable - ECM and UKMO.

[Gaz1985]

Cold creeping in from the east on JMA

 

[The Eagle]

 

 

More than a hint of JMA in the ECM at 192.

Edited January 6, 2014 by The Eagle

[Captain Shortwave]

That will do nicely

[TSNWK]

ECM 168 looks packed with potential to my untrained eye..decent heights over Svalbard and can that energy go under at 192

ECM 192 I like enjoy

[karlos1983]

come to pupa

 

Edited January 6, 2014 by karlos1983