Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

[lassie23]

The Korean model?! Is it any good?

It is an ok model, but not everyone's first choice. It has been hinting at an easterly through January before giving us the works in February and since all the other models are going nuts and sometimes showing a block to our east and then dropping it, the Korean model could be on to something. I hope so because February is a snow fest according to that model. A snowfest would lift the post festive gloom and put a smile on many forum members faces. What a way to lift the January blues, a thick , sparkling covering of snow...........sigh

[weather eater]

Why or why do folks keep looking for cold there is not any real cold in the near future  

Because it’s NW forum law, you could have, at least if such things were possible, a cat 5 hurricane bearing down on us and we would still be discussing whether it would pull in a cold northerly once the center passed over us.

Edited January 6, 2014 by weather eater

[bluearmy]

not surprisingly, the ecm 12z ens run is a more undercutting version of what has gone before. the low anomolys to our south more marked than they were on the 00z run. the chances of seeing the jet energy modelled into europe on three consec ecm suites currently not great but if it were to happen, we would have a pretty good idea where we might be going. just picked this up on meteociel which is as good as a mean jet representation. clearly shows the split at day 10 with most headed se.

 

 

 

whilst you're looking west of iberia, take a peek upstream at that 'mean' streak exiting newfoundland. which direction will that go? answer will dictate the third week of jan.

[damianslaw]

For the first time in ages, GFS 12z is showing a very similar set up to ECM at the crucial 144hr timeframe (always the absolute far reach of reliable timeframes). Both are supporting height development to the north of Scandinavia. Unusually UKMO is showing a different pattern, however, it has been very similar to ECM in recent days and was very keen on a strong build of heights to the north of Scandinavia too.

 

Will be interesting to see whether UKMO has the right evolution..

 

It is a very complex set up - always is when a split flow has chance of developing.

 

More importantly we look like finally seeing a weaker jet which in turn means much less in the way of wind even if it looks like staying preety unsettled. Also for the first time all winter some proper cold uppers look like developing to our NE - and unlike early winter cold pools to our NE become much harder to shift as we enter the second part of winter.

 

The synoptical evolution shown at the 144hr range by ECM is uncanningly similar to this exact time last year in terms of rising pressure to our NE blocking off what had also been a very rampant atlantic - however, things are different in many other respects, last year the PV was nowhere near as cold and we didn't have such a strong thermal temp gradient in the mid atlantic, we had also seen much colder uppers surface to our NE, unlike this time last year, we have many more factors not favouring a cold spell, but doesn't mean we can't get one.

[Purga]

nope its a sinker stinker

 

Tided for you.

[bobbydog]

Why or why do folks keep looking for cold there is not any real cold in the near future  

 

that's why we're looking for it..........

[terrier]

Another good update and unbiased view from gibby tonight and also as any weather has just alluded to I really can't see any meaningful cold in the output. Yes this weekend looks abit cooler. Before we go into next week with the Atlantic taking control again. So the cold looks as far away as it has all winter.

[Troubleatmill]

Because the majority (me Included) are not Interested in the default mild mush we get summer/winter, but extremists looking for severe lasting cold in summer or 30+ in summer, what du prefer Anyweather or is that a daft question given your tag :s

[johnholmes]

 So the cold looks as far away as it has all winter.

 

not true at all according to charts I use but I will post more on this tomorrow

[SMU]

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php?run=12

 

A fair Ensemble mean tonight from the ECM reflecting the uncertainty post 168 from the euros, but the colder solutions have evened out the milder ones.....

 

S

Edited January 6, 2014 by Steve Murr

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

A USS Missouri Post from Big Steve M.....with Cher in see through bodice voicing over. Models can and do get you...but ECM Ntakes the window tonight, and so does GEM and the MetO respected JMA

 

JMA

 

 

 

 

This is taking the 'window.

 

BFTP

Edited January 6, 2014 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[tight isobar]

Another good update and unbiased view from gibby tonight and also as any weather has just alluded to I really can't see any meaningful cold in the output. Yes this weekend looks abit cooler. Before we go into next week with the Atlantic taking control again. So the cold looks as far away as it has all winter.

!,, well my personal take is after this coming weekend its a50/50 solution scenario, if you take cross model right now at face value.with colder options atm riding not to far behind any pump down via Atlantic. And this is the current grey area, and indeed by the weekend things shall be clearer for sure. ?...then theres the GFS, and if that's your optional model then its anyones guess. Regards.

[JK1]

may sound like a stupid question but what exactly is cold rain?

[Downpour]

Great post Steve, thanks! Since I remember last year that the ECM sometimes corrected east as T0 approached (and I think Steve picked up on this at the time), it will be interesting to see if there are corrections east in a few days - hopefully they will be the other way!!For all the GFS criticism today, it should be given a little credit because (assuming it happens) it picked this pattern change out last Friday only to drop it within a few runs. Within T96-T192 I see GFS making mistakes quite often, but whenever a pattern change occurs it always seems to give us a preview somewhere in the T200s or T300s! So it has got its uses for me!!

In all fairness it will "predict" pretty much anything - so erratic is its output. See also tonight's hurricane monsoon at T12thOfNever hrs.

[Snowman31]

may sound like a stupid question but what exactly is cold rain?

Rain that's cold

[JK1]

Rain that's cold

isn't rain cold anyway

[johnholmes]

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php?run=12

 

A fair Ensemble mean tonight from the ECM reflecting the uncertainty post 168 from the euros, but the colder solutions have evened out the milder ones.....

 

S

 

hi Steve

about another post not this one

 

Re this comment Steve

 

Sorry to be a pedant on your posts Draztik - your analysis of the 00z Ensemble mean - returning to zonal seems quite suspect as you *may* be interpreting the GPDM intervals as the prevailing wind direction, when actually there not.

 

 

The lines are showing you the depth of height anomaly -  whilst you could intimate that westerly conditions maybe pushing through, you could also say that the UK could be under a battle ground scenario with the polar front straddling the UK, or even that the high pressure in the atlantic was ridging NE to reinforce the cold anomaly over us & Europe- its not always right to put the first assumption in as your punt as to whats happening.

 

In dark=not true they are the height lines at 500mb shown in geopotential metres, with the standard heights shown on each alternate line (no idea why there is an intermediate line between each). That is if it is the black lines you are referring to with the numbers attached? Thus we see familiar numbers such as 528, 546, 564 etc. The coloured areas are the +ve or –ve height anomalies with the colour code at the bottom of the chart?

 

Or am I misunderstanding what your post was driving at?

[Duane S.]

Another good update and unbiased view from gibby tonight and also as any weather has just alluded to I really can't see any meaningful cold in the output. Yes this weekend looks abit cooler. Before we go into next week with the Atlantic taking control again. So the cold looks as far away as it has all winter.

 

Assuming you are not only posting for attention, you have been here long enough not to post such nonsense Terrier and you know it. Cold looked far away early December and it was for a reason but can you honestly not see the potential in the charts???

[Yarmy]

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/new_acz6.html

 

Just to highlight the recent GFS performance - now in forth behind the GEM which is TOP!

S

 

 

 

UK M=top, not often that happens to ECMWF

 

 

Forgive my pedantry, but GEM leads for Jan 6. For the previous month overall it's:

 

1. ECM (0.867)

2. UKMO (0.859)

3=GEM and GFS (0.835)

 

Edited January 6, 2014 by Yarmy

[draztik]

ext ecm ensembles at day 14, indicate strong signal for troughing to our NW, with the Scandi block no longer locked, .. This is is trend moving frwd. So, a scandi block, the preferred route, but temporary, before a reinvigorated jet brings the Atlantic back

as for the 12z runs, the ecm & jma promote the idea of blocking to our ne, which creates a battle ground over the uk, between an easterly for a time, and Atlantic fronts trying to push in from west.

gfs indicates a strong jet into second week, makes much less of the blocking, with any heights shunted.

so, Imo, its turning less zonal, temporary blocking, before we return to a more mobile pattern, with the Atlantic once more in control. Gefs reinforces this idea into wk 2, with naefs keeping us unsettled, with little sign of blocking.

11-15 day heights naefs

Edited January 6, 2014 by draztik

[Barry12]

So the cold looks as far away as it has all winter.

 

Yes as far away as it has all winter, the models aren't showing Easterlies at all...

[bobbydog]

may sound like a stupid question but what exactly is cold rain?

 

someone once said, "there is no such thing as a stupid question.  just stupid people who don't ask questions."

 

in this case however, we might make an exception......

[Snowman31]

isn't rain cold anyway

Not necessarily but the colder the weather the colder the rain unless of course it's cold enough for snow.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

isn't rain cold anyway

Nope, Florida, equatorial countries etc have very warm rain, almost as if you were in a shower!

[Biggin]

Another good update and unbiased view from gibby tonight and also as any weather has just alluded to I really can't see any meaningful cold in the output. Yes this weekend looks abit cooler. Before we go into next week with the Atlantic taking control again. So the cold looks as far away as it has all winter.

Yeah me too. specially bout the jet imploding and not knowing where its gonna end up. Your no snow till March is teetering a tad??