Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

[Summer Sun]

ECM ensemble remains pretty much as you were with pressure signaled to rise to our east

 

[nick sussex]

There is still a chance of the colder solution because upstream there are loads of differences re phasing and timing, these small changes make a big difference downstream, indeed I could write a second book this morning on this whole drama.

 

Theres only so many windows of opportunity to get the cold in and the block must be sufficiently north before a renewed jet streak heads across the Atlantic, its for this reason that I won't buy the ECM last chart carrot dangle, not saying it doesn't have a chance of working out that way as I'm not Mystic Meg but simply we would have to go through a whole further process of trying to get the piece of the puzzle together and we've seen just how difficult that is for the current drama.

 

The best news thinking positively is the UKMO output unfortunately thats nullified somewhat by the ECM and especially the GFS.

 

Thre is still time for things to change as its very volatile,we'll see what happens for the rest of the day.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

For me the situation is 'still' developing and nothing is sorted either way.  However, all the models are showing trough disruption as they hit the developing block, one thing is that models are showing a block developing further north than a MLB and also the zonal train getting halted.  Will it be battleground UK?

 

GEM remains bullish and is superb, ECM is further east than 12z but 216 to 240 shows the block and cold beginning to back west.  GFS brings in a real wintry spell, UKMO looks like developing very nicely.  So we are still heading towards a chance of cold. 

 

BFTP

[Polar Maritime]

Yes a long way to go yet, the pattern change has not even started in reality, folks must be patient, as it will be towards the end of week until we are any clearer on whether we will get a bite this time round. At least the Atlantic is slowly coming to a halt, which will leave us open to a much better chance for cold, so at least we are on a gradual cool now, Im with W.E and a few more that the models will flop about as per usual ... with the 2nd attempt being the one that brings the real goods, As Chio stated a few days ago, in line with his statt forecast.

 

Lot's of interest in the models over the days to come.

Edited January 7, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Gibby]

Good morning. Here is the report on today's NWP output for today Tuesday January 7th 2013.

 

All models show the filling of the deep Atlantic depression to the North of Scotland continuing a pace with less windy weather developing through today. The frequent showers will become less widespread today and the process will continue overnight. However, all models show a disturbance running close to SE Britain tonight and a larger disturbance tomorrow bringing heavy rain back across Southern Britain later. Then after all models show a Westerly flow on Thursday and the rest of the week and start to the weekend with some further showers. Sunday then shows a ridge of High pressure bring a decent day to end the weekend.

 

GFS then shows next week as another very unsettled and potentially wet week as further Low pressure moves East then SE over the UK, each bringing their own spells of potentially heavy rain followed by showers in blustery winds with the end frames of the run showing a colder push from Europe to the SE briefly on the exit of the last depression of the run.

 

The GFS Ensembles show a continued pattern of only small changes in both pattern and temperature values with the only trend of note is for the winds to be a little less notable and temperatures to be a little less mild. With regard to rainfall however there is still scope for disruption due to further heavy rain at times from this morning's ensemble set.

 

UKMO today closes it's run next Monday with a Low pressure centre over Iceland pushing an active Atlantic trough slowly East across the UK with copious rainfall for all through the day.

 

GEM also shows a very unsettled week next week as a series of depression commencing on Monday move close to the West of the UK with heavy rain on several occasions under blustery West winds before they turn North or NE late in the run with rain turning to snow in places as temperatures would take a sharp dip.

 

NAVGEM today shows Low pressure up to the NW with fronts crossing NE over the UK with further rain at times to start next week.

 

ECM next week shows very changeable conditions with pressure relatively high to the East and repeated attacks from the Atlantic sending bands of rain repeatedly into the UK from the Atlantic before becoming slow moving over the UK and sliding away SE. Rain could well be heavy at times and cause further disruption should this run verify.

 

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean charts show a very worrying trend for those afflicted by fronts. There appears good support for High pressure to set up shop to the East of the UK with troughs ganging up on the UK to the West or over the UK. This could mean slow moving bands of rain affecting the UK throughout the end of next week exasipating flooding issues.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

 

The Jet Stream Forecast shows the long lasting strong West to East flow of late breaking up somewhat over the coming days before something of a reset takes place but at the European end the flow is forced South to lower latitudes in response to higher pressure to the East or NE.

 

In Summary this morning it is not a pretty sight for those looking for drier weather as after a brief lull for some at the weekend next week looks again very disturbed and potentially wet but under different type of synoptics than of late. This time higher pressure looks like being maintained to the East of the UK with the Atlantic still quite active. This then has the effect of stalling the rain bearing fronts coming into the West and consequently giving rise to much unwanted rainfall through the week with conditions cold enough for some snow on Northern hills at times. In the models longer term trends it look as though undercutting of the lows in a more SE fashion over Europe may develop and if this verifies it maybe that in 10-14 days that we may finally see something more seasonal from the East become more of a threat for the UK.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

This feature just south of Ireland will bring in more heavy rain and problems.  This is an interesting one  GFS has it moving ENE, so does ECM but GEM gets it to here then moves it more E as it bumps into and phases with the LP to the north. 

Now yesterday Beeb had it soaking the SE, now they have it soaking S Wales this morning.  I think it will be quite a feature, mainly of rain reasons...but its track will be interesting and important.

 

BFTP

Edited January 7, 2014 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Summer Sun]

GFS 8 day temperature anomaly is pretty much as you were with the vast majority of Europe staying above average of course we have a few exceptions over here its Northern and the Republic of Ireland, parts of Scotland and the far north of England

 

 

Normal temps left expected temps right

 

 

Across the pond in the USA and things are shown to steadily improve with temperatures starting to rise

 

[shedhead]

For now there is still nothing in the NWP to suggest a switch to colder weather across the UK anytime soon, BUT looking forward Ian F has has just posted there are some colder E members that the MO are not discounting.  Given what we have seen so far this winter and more especially recently that should be good enough for most imo... but of course it never really is.

Edited January 7, 2014 by Paul

[nick sussex]

Below two charts one from the UKMO and the ECM at T144hrs, the UKMO is far better upstream a sharp angle between the two lows and more energy going se, the ECM has already phased those lows  and the pattern is too far east.

 

 

 

 

We need a sort of hybrid mix here, the ECM has a stronger ridge to the ne, take the ECM at 120hrs over western Europe back it west and then throw in the UKMO at T144hrs and the cold solution is likely.

 

 

PS latest NAM is more amplified off the eastern USA than its earlier run, the dig of the jet occuring much more favourably at T84hrs, maybe a sign given the timeframes that the GFS might perform another backtrack here.

Edited January 7, 2014 by nick sussex

[Cloud 10]

Some extreme amplification in the jetstream on Thursday which is shown very nicely

on the earth wind map...

 

earth wind map 250

 

...with a LP heading North over the UK,so i would think some further weather warning's

for rain on late Wednesday/ Thursday will be issued shortly.

 

 

 

 

BFTP beat me to it!

Edited January 7, 2014 by Cloud 10

[mountain shadow]

In the million and one thing that need to go right to get a cold easterly, I feel the missing element is a North Italian low and an Iberian low which would assist in the bringing the cold West and stop the Scandi Ridge from sinking.

 

Perhaps Corinthian is around to give his guys views on any potential low pressure around North Italy/Southern Austria?

[shaky]

Below two charts one from the UKMO and the ECM at T144hrs, the UKMO is far better upstream a sharp angle between the two lows and more energy going se, the ECM has already phased those lows  and the pattern is too far east.

 

UN144-21.gif

 

 

ECH1-144.gif

 

We need a sort of hybrid mix here, the ECM has a stronger ridge to the ne, take the ECM at 120hrs over western Europe back it west and then throw in the UKMO at T144hrs and the cold solution is likely.

 

ECH1-120.gif

 

PS latest NAM is more amplified off the eastern USA than its earlier run, the dig of the jet occuring much more favourably at T84hrs, maybe a sign given the timeframes that the GFS might perform another backtrack here.

which should hopefully mean ecm will backtrack later this evening!!

[carinthian]

Morning all,

 Our snow computer forecasting system upgrades snowfall in our region for Tuesday and Wednesday next week with a combined reduction in temperature at all levels. Our portal forecasts indicated a fall of pressure in Southern Europe and a rise in pressure further north with a developing cold pool over West Russia. A low circulation would seem likely during this period , probable centre about 200k south of Klagenfurt.

Looking towards the British Isle, the expectancy still holds for some fall of pressure to the Southwest next week, whether this is trough alignation or cyclonic development , it still in mid- term prognosis period. The consensus from our experts is that the British Isles may become some sort of boundary ( battle ground ) against a increasing colder block further east.

Of course it is much harder to forecast snow in your location than here in central Europe. Should make for good model watching as this week progresses.

Have pictures over here on the news of the UK flooding and Mid-West Blizzards. Quite a contrast. Warmer uppers here to today, should see some snow melt after the weekends 35cm fresh snowfall.

 C

[Gibby]

I think the main talking point of note from this morning's output should be the concern of more disruptive rainfall likely next week which is certainly more likely than disruptive snowfall.

 

I really do admire you folks on here for continually scanning the model outputs for that elusive cold snap and the prospect of snow. I used to be much the same in my younger years. Nowadays I take the weather as it comes and enjoy it all equally, that way it has become a year round fascinating hobby and not just a hobby of bitter disappointments when the expected snow and ice doesn't materialise which let's face it is more often than not in the UK. Still keep it up guys I enjoy your banter when I get in from my workshop each evening

[snowice]

I wonder if the polar vortex in the us has the effect of cooling the waters in the Atlantic and disrupting the PV?

[SMU]

Morning so this mornings analysis:

 

 

ECM + UKMO Blend 85%

 

So then we have the euros in agreement this morning in the H5 anomalies at 120 & 144, with the lows track now aligning to the amplified pattern suggested by the ECM for a number of days now. 

There are subtle differences though- more so at 144-168

 

@ 120 ECM

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010700/ECH1-120.GIF?07-12 ECM sees that sharp vertical flow developing towards Ireland

@ 120 UKMO

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014010700/UN120-21.GIF?07-06 UKMO has a more positive tilt to that alignment meaning that the ridging initially looks to be slightly east of the meridian.

 

Out to 144 & both models show the battleground for any snow from the east at this point is reserverd for east of the UK, perhaps however the UKMO sees some wintry weather from the polar air over NW Scotland & poss NI- 

 

UKMO 144

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014010700/UN144-21.GIF?07-06

 

The ECM doesn't go without interest though this is because I think perhaps its overdone the jet & how fast it will come through from the altlantic-

 

 

The jet looks a little fast at 144 with not enough amplitude, as a result the cold in situ over southern scandi is held at bay.

When the ECM runs tonight I expect the 144 to be a tad more amplified than that with the cold closer- UKMO I feel @ 168 would be similar.

 

GFS Confidence 15%

 

The GFS this morning has reverted to yet another zonal scenario

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014010700/gfsnh-0-138.png?0

why?

 

This model doesn't do undercutting until probably T120 timeframe when it resolves the energy better, because the GFS is portraying this evolution it obviously stays on the confidence %age, but as more & more models come aboard ( All euros + GEM/JMA) then increasingly it looks isolated. The ensembles aren't much cop either.

Its very unlikely that this is the correct solution so confidence is low.-  When the GFS picks up this track- I suspect it will be later today & the subsequent split energy will appear & the whole model will start a quick swing to better charts- The ensembles will be probably 2-6 runs behind.

 

 

Other models-

 

The GEM is once again on board, with a fantastic snow event for the NE at day 8 & 9 & 10

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014010700/gemnh-0-198.png?00

Obviously confidence is low at this stage in any detail but with the cold air so close by then we *Could* start to see these type of charts appear more frequently from tonight as the UKMO comes into range.

 

Overnight JMA only goes out to 84

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2014010700/JN84-21.GIF?07-0

It sticks the atlantic shallow low further west so that can only be good news.

 

 

 

Summary:

 

 

Still the finer detail to be confirmed in the midrange which is still throwing different 168 solutions out, from the snippets of consistency we have had - energy going SE under the block is replicated by the ECM & UKMO however how far east is still unclear with the UK still on the western periphery at 168, there is still enough scope in the models to see snow because of the Polar front possibly straddling the UK at that time ( east of the UK modelling at the moment)

 

Post that the ECM builds more confidence today especially at day 10 & whilst the ensemble T2M isn't so great past day 10 I would be happy to wait for a third bite of the cherry at day 10 if this verified-

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010700/ECH1-240.GIF?07-12

A pretty epic chart loaded with HIGH potential for snow developing over the uk & sustainability of the Scandi high-

 

just remember-

 

we are not over the line yet on this ridge building North - lets hope the ECM doesn't do a devon Loch on us & the GFS wins at the final post-

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tXNVtxIxtP8

 

S

Edited January 7, 2014 by Steve Murr

[Jo Farrow]

Latest from the Met Office

There remain a significant minority of members (about 40% of EC and 45% of MOGREPS-15) that allow a build of

pressure across the UK into the Trend period, with a number of these signalling some sort of E’ly

or N’ly component also.

The trend period being 10-15 days 

That's quite in the balance about the build of pressure and then within that, getting E or N'ly

[shedhead]

Morning all,

 Our snow computer forecasting system upgrades snowfall in our region for Tuesday and Wednesday next week with a combined reduction in temperature at all levels. Our portal forecasts indicated a fall of pressure in Southern Europe and a rise in pressure further north with a developing cold pool over West Russia. A low circulation would seem likely during this period , probable centre about 200k south of Klagenfurt.

Looking towards the British Isle, the expectancy still holds for some fall of pressure to the Southwest next week, whether this is trough alignation or cyclonic development , it still in mid- term prognosis period. The consensus from our experts is that the British Isles may become some sort of boundary ( battle ground ) against a increasing colder block further east.

Of course it is much harder to forecast snow in your location than here in central Europe. Should make for good model watching as this week progresses.

Have pictures over here on the news of the UK flooding and Mid-West Blizzards. Quite a contrast. Warmer uppers here to today, should see some snow melt after the weekends 35cm fresh snowfall.

 C

Thanks for the update C.  Is it fair to say you/they have backed away from this to a degree?

 

03 January 2014 - 20:40

Evening, the latest ECM is almost akin to our latest scrip. It is important for cold retention that heights continue to drop to the south of the uk. A pool of cold air not far from the UK. Changes are a coming, a soggy Southern Britain could soon become snow laden landscape come the second half of the month. Will up date latest UBIMET thoughts tomorrow.

c

 

[SomeLikeItHot]

Can anyone remember how last January cold spell developed, we're not heading down that route again?I remember ECM showing some easterly charts, GFS wasn't as keen, sometimes GFS charts showed very zonal charts and we ended with a cold spell for close to a fortnight.

Cold air was pushing across most of the country on the 12th of Jan last year.

 

If you look at the 12Z runs on the 6/1/2013 at +144 none of them had as cold air there as eventuated. ECM looked best for longer term cold but was too strong on high pressure to the north, UKMO was possibly closest but the high too far north and GFS had the high sinking  south eastward letting the Atlantic in.

 

None of them looked like lasting cold. If you look a few days later they are closer but all still show it ending quickly on most runs. FI is very short in these set ups it appears.

[fergieweather]

Latest from the Met OfficeThere remain a significant minority of members (about 40% of EC and 45% of MOGREPS-15) that allow a build ofpressure across the UK into the Trend period, with a number of these signalling some sort of E’lyor N’ly component also.The trend period being 10-15 days That's quite in the balance about the build of pressure and then within that, getting E or N'ly

Indeed so. The update circa 11am awaited with interest, Jo...

[frosty ground]

Rather sad when a member of your long standing w e feels the need to seek support, simply for posting objectively. Just continue to post things as YOU see them.

 

For now there is still nothing in the NWP to suggest a switch to colder weather across the UK anytime soon, BUT looking forward Ian F has has just posted there are some colder E members that the MO are not discounting.  Given what we have seen so far this winter and more especially recently that should be good enough for most imo... but of course it never really is.

Is the ECM @240 a zonal chart?

[Jo Farrow]

Indeed so. The update circa 11am awaited with interest, Jo...

It would be nice to have something else to say rather than SW'ly (gales)

[len]

I have the same sentiments about accepting the weather as John Holmes. But to throw some comfort to coldseekers NOAA is sticking to its guns 6-10 days & 8-14 days

Edited January 7, 2014 by len

[Cumulonimbus Tower]

GFS 6z seems to have ther WAA aligned slightly more favourably for building heights to the NE. Wonder if this might be a slightly better run for coldies than the 00z.....

 

 

In fact it's looking remarkably like the GEM at 144 and not too dissimilar to the ECM..... 

 

 

Edited January 7, 2014 by Cumulonimbus Tower

[SMU]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014010706/gfsnh-0-144.png?6

 

finally after days of GFS misery the model puts 2+2 & lands @ 4 instead of 7.

 

Wedge of high pressure into the right location.

 

S