Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

I'm sure some will no doubt put another positive spin on the overnight models in terms of cold, indeed if you live in Scandinavia and northern Europe it is a great run, however, so long as we keep the low heights around southern Greenland / Iceland then we will be governed by south westerlies as we are for the vast majority of the ECM run. As above it looks like close but no cigar for the mid January  timeframe and we'll need another bite of the cherry late in the month to hopefully back up the Mets delayed colder spell in Feb.

 

Recm2161.gif

Again,that chart is full od potential IMHO.

Im more optimistic this morning than i have been for a looong time

[shedhead]

I'm sure some will no doubt put another positive spin on the overnight models in terms of cold, indeed if you live in Scandinavia and northern Europe it is a great run, however, so long as we keep the low heights around southern Greenland / Iceland then we will be governed by south westerlies as we are for the vast majority of the ECM run. As above it looks like close but no cigar for the mid January  timeframe and we'll need another bite of the cherry late in the month to hopefully back up the Mets delayed colder spell in Feb.

 

Recm2161.gif

Indeed, I mused on Sunday that my fear was a Scandi high would develop to far east, meaning the North Sea becomes a frontal graveyard and we largely remain on the wrong side. However as I also said at the time, this kind of set up can at least bring some occasional temporary interest to easternmost areas. 

[bluearmy]

Hmm i actually thought the ECM looks reasonable nick?Certainly the scandy high looks fairly robust with a secondary ridge thrown down from the Arctic at 240.Battle Royal on the way a very very fluid setup...

Just referencing the split flow, which, in the more reliable part of the run, is not sending as much se as yesterday's 12z did. The reasoning being that we need to get a handle on how much se flow there will be. If we got several runs all repeating a stronger s split then that would tell us something. at the moment, we cant seem to get two consec runs to show the same sequence!

[The Eagle]

The ECM is excellent IMO especially at 240 hrs but before that too shed loads of potential. I see someone mentioned that the high was sinking at 240 hrs - I don't think that's the case entirely. Heights and pressure are continuing to build all the time to the north east. So whilst the high (or part of it rather) in to Europe might slip it's still a good position and the jet seems well aligned for us. So I really think there is some over pessimism. Charts overall are very encouraging IMO.

 

Edited January 7, 2014 by The Eagle

[Troubleatmill]

Again,that chart is full od potential IMHO.

Im more optimistic this morning than i have been for a looong time

 

Problem is the battle ground is over Denmark, there is still l a lot to do from there to get us in the right spot for cold with the Atlantic still fairly strong and low heights stubborn around Iceland. it looks like it wants to undercut but wont, But still as you say better charts than what we have had since October 

Edited January 7, 2014 by Arron B

[weather eater]

Looking at the broad picture in reality it has not really changed over the last few days. Yes we have seen some shifting of the synoptics, some looking more likely than others for getting us to a proper cold shot. However that broad picture, zonal, some kind of blocking for a short while, MLB occasionally higher, then a return to something more zonal, that theme has been with us for some days now. The GFS going further out started it, the ECM now that the blocked section is coming into mid range has started to trend zonal long range with the blocking being shunted further east.

Edited January 7, 2014 by weather eater

[Johnp]

Looking at the broad picture in reality it had not really changed over the last few days. Yes we have seen some shifting of the synoptics, some looking more likely than others for getting us to a proper cold shot. However that broad picture, zonal, some kind of blocking for a short while, MLB occasionally higher, then a return to something more zonal, that theme has been with us for some days now. The GFS going further out started it, the ECM now that the blocked section is coming into mid range has started to trend zonal long range with the blocking being shunted further east.

No it hasn't. The ECM is in no way zonal.

[Nigerian Prince]

Will the ecm chart look like that in 10 days time, most probably not,everyone should chill out and relax, upgrades to come for cold as well as downgrades,, that is model watching 10 days in the future, for you.. (gender male. location Battersea, London)

[Captain Shortwave]

Looking at the broad picture in reality it had not really changed over the last few days. Yes we have seen some shifting of the synoptics, some looking more likely than others for getting us to a proper cold shot. However that broad picture, zonal, some kind of blocking for a short while, MLB occasionally higher, then a return to something more zonal, that theme has been with us for some days now. The GFS going further out started it, the ECM now that the blocked section is coming into mid range has started to trend zonal long range with the blocking being shunted further east.

The ECM doesn't exactly look zonal at day 10 for example

Sharp Atlantic trough with energy pushing into southern Europe, whilst one can say the pattern is far too east, to say that's zonal would suggest the past few weeks has been a typical weather....... for the surface of Jupiter 

Still a lot of uncertainty even towards the reliable timeframe this morning though I people still seem to be throwing in the towel at every opportunity, usually for completely different reason. maybe we should wait for those things to sort themselves out before writing off the rest of the month for reasons x,y and z.

Edited January 7, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Nick F]

The upper low/vortex (H500 upwards) over Barents Sea and NW Russia may actually hamper development of a H500 block over Scandi, at least initially, as heights try to build north this weekend to form a Scandinavian high - not helped by a piece of the Polar Vortex pushing SE towards the UK. 00z ECM oper has another attempt at forming a Scandi block next week as the upper low over Barents/NW Russia drifts further east, but by then the Atlantic lows, although not getting past the meridian, are still close enough to keep the cold air to our east at bay.

It's difficult to say which way this will go, given there's still alot of energy progged by the main models to come across the Atlantic, with a re-juvenated jet streak coming out of NE Canada early next week. Still give chances of cold from the east 50:50 for now.

Edited January 7, 2014 by Nick F

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Looking at the broad picture in reality it had not really changed over the last few days. Yes we have seen some shifting of the synoptics, some looking more likely than others for getting us to a proper cold shot. However that broad picture, zonal, some kind of blocking for a short while, MLB occasionally higher, then a return to something more zonal, that theme has been with us for some days now. The GFS going further out started it, the ECM now that the blocked section is coming into mid range has started to trend zonal long range with the blocking being shunted further east.

I disagree.

Im not ruling out zonal long term but its becoming interesting and i dont think we can confidently predict which way it will go in the medium timeframe.

[weather eater]

No it hasn't. The ECM is in no way zonal.

But its heading that way unless we can get the block to come back west we will end up that way, nothing of course is set in stone so we shall see.

[The Eagle]

But its heading that way unless we can get the block to come back west we will end up that way, nothing of course is set in stone so we shall see.

 

 

What makes you think it wouldn't come back west at 240 hrs? 

 

It's 240 hrs obviously so it's very much pie in the sky but anyway...

[ANYWEATHER]

Its a case of the waiting game now. I think theres too much energy in the Atlantic atm  for any serious cold from the East. As I said last night, it looks like flooding issues will carry on for the time being with some active fronts affecting the Uk.......

[TEITS]

Historically the models have always struggled in these situations. The GFS is useless and really isn't worth paying attention to. The ECM can be the other extreme being rather OTT with the blocking and then you have the UKMO which often handles these situations more accurately.

 

My instinct though is telling me the first attempt at a cold spell from the E/NE will fail and the cold will not get further W than E Germany. However the 2nd attempt will be successful around the period between 20th-23rd Jan.

[weather eater]

 

Still a lot of uncertainty even towards the reliable timeframe this morning though I people still seem to be throwing in the towel at every opportunity, usually for completely different reason. maybe we should wait for those things to sort themselves out before writing off the rest of the month for reasons x,y and z.

Throwing in the towel, I just say what I see, I have no interest in viewing models in either a positive or negative manner, glass half full or half empty is irrelevant, it is the model discussion thread, not the model discussion thread only if you are super optimistic about a cold spell. If you want to disagree that’s fine, you explain you’re rational and I will do the same, it’s a discussion not a competition even though a vast number of members seem to want to treat it as such.

And who said anything about writing off the rest of the month, all I am doing is reporting on how I think the models are trending and have been for a few days, by tomorrow morning that may be completely turned on its head.

Edited January 7, 2014 by weather eater

[weather eater]

What makes you think it wouldn't come back west at 240 hrs? 

 

It's 240 hrs obviously so it's very much pie in the sky but anyway...

It is possible, my experience of model watching is that these things are more likely to be pushed further east, not to mention what Nick F has explained in his post above and Nick's below.

Edited January 7, 2014 by weather eater

[That ECM]

It is possible, my experience of model watching is that these things are more likely to be pushed further east, not to mention what Nick F has explained in his post above.

I would agree but as I said yesterday it will take to Thursday, Friday before we start to see output with a consistent colder theme. Look how the GFS has changed over the last 24/36 hours.

[nick sussex]

You really couldn't make it up!

 

So the UKMO edges towards the more amplified solution, the GFS jumps off a cliff and the ECM is so so.

 

I certainly wouldn't trust the ECM to get back to the colder solution after the initial miss, so in this respect its a disappointing start to the day.

 

The pattern overall is too far east and not enough energy going south at the key timeframes. In an ironic twist typically the UKMO has the best upstream pattern at T144hrs after being very underwhelming last night.

 

The question is has the UKMO come late to the party and the guests are already going home? I think we need a big correction westward if we're to not miss the boat here?  Hoping that the ECM will be right at T240hrs given the mess the models are making of this so far is a leap of faith too far for me.

 

So we either see some changes within T144hrs or I fear we maybe chasing pots of gold at the end of the rainbow for the next week.

[Frosty.]

First things first, the jet stream is going to weaken during the course of the next few weeks with more typical atlantic weather with wet and windy spells separated by drier and brighter periods, especially across the south and east.

Edited January 7, 2014 by Frosty.

[Weather-history]

Can anyone remember how last January cold spell developed, we're not heading down that route again?

I remember ECM showing some easterly charts, GFS wasn't as keen, sometimes GFS charts showed very zonal charts and we ended with a cold spell for close to a fortnight.

[fergieweather]

Worth adding that as of yesterday, 45% of MOGREPS members built pressure contiguous to the UK by 15d (versus 40% in EC EPS), with a number of these heralding easterly components. Whilst UKMO currently lean towards continuation by then of unsettled mobility from west, they do so with clear caveats & expression of uncertainty.

[shaky]

Ecm looks brilliant this morning!!more more battleground snow!!and gfs well its gone coockoo again!!

[johnholmes]

the post above by Ian F and one earlier by Nick F sum up the position - uncertain. Unlikely to be a continuation  beyond 3-4 days (thankfully for the storm damaged and flooded areas) of the raging Atlantic pattern but a question mark on will there be a pattern change to a genuine colder flow be it with a northerly or easterly component.

Last evening I had typed up my views based on the anomaly charts, dependent on what the ECMWF-GFS showed this morning. Well, see below, they are not consistent so the 50:50 suggested by Nick F is probably about where we stand at the moment. 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Edited January 7, 2014 by johnholmes

[weather eater]

Can anyone remember how last January cold spell developed, we're not heading down that route again?

I remember ECM showing some easterly charts, GFS wasn't as keen, sometimes GFS charts showed very zonal charts and we ended with a cold spell for close to a fortnight.

It did, but my argument this morning is that it’s not just the GFS that’s not keen, the ECM is rather wishy-washy as well, what we need is for the block to shift back west. The debate for me is how likely is it to do so, from experience I would put it down at 70/30 against and then hope I'm badly wrong, I like Johns odds better.

Edited January 7, 2014 by weather eater