Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

[nick sussex]

The GFS does its best to drag the drama out in the lower resolution, you can see its reluctant to separate that shortwave energy away from the main trough, if it did so the ridge would exert more forcing on the low to send energy se.

[tight isobar]

Far better from the 18z GFS, if in term of potential. Further runs cross" should hopefully start firming v, soon. ? And dare isay evenupgrade dedevelopment.

DEVELOPMENT even. : )

[shaky]

The GFS does its best to drag the drama out in the lower resolution, you can see its reluctant to separate that shortwave energy away from the main trough, if it did so the ridge would exert more forcing on the low to send energy se.

still what a turnaround from the gfs!!steve murr looks like he was right with his gfs backtrack!!

[nick sussex]

still what a turnaround from the gfs!!steve murr looks like he was right with his gfs backtrack!!

Well if you go on the last few weeks then it was always more likely than it being correct however the UKMO raw output is totally underwhelming compared to both the ECM and GFS indeed most of the other global models.

 

We've been here before with it, even if the UKMO modify their raw output towards the ECM in tonights T120hrs fax chart we need its raw output tomorrow to start showing more dig south of the jet to the west.

 

For newbies with blocking to the ne and this type of set up don't bank on anything until the UKMO agrees.

Edited January 6, 2014 by nick sussex

[Nick F]

The GFS does its best to drag the drama out in the lower resolution, you can see its reluctant to separate that shortwave energy away from the main trough, if it did so the ridge would exert more forcing on the low to send energy se.

 

Yes, really need a quick trough disruption, otherwise low pressure shown on 18z just loiters over western Europe pumping mild air north and keeping the deep cold air at bay to the northeast. Still, at least GFS is catching on to the NE blocking idea, albeit a shamefully late arrival to the party.

 

It's one thing getting the block, but it's another thing, an uphill struggle often, getting the lows and flows in the right place to deliver the deep cold to the UK.

[Polar Maritime]

Finally the GFS catches up at last, still lot's more flip/flopping to come but nice to see all three on board, Phew !

Edited January 6, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[shaky]

Well if you go on the last few weeks then it was always more likely than it being correct however the UKMO raw output is totally underwhelming compared to both the ECM and GFS indeed most of the other global models. We've been here before with it, even if the UKMO modify their raw output towards the ECM in tonights T120hrs fax chart we need its raw output tomorrow to start showing more dig south of the jet to the west. For newbies with blocking to the ne and this type of set up don't bank on anything until the UKMO agrees.

yeh your right we have seen it happen before!!got a feeling that by tomorrow 12z ukmo will be on board!!

[johnholmes]

did anyone do the homework I set regarding the setting up of a Scandinavian ridge using the basic forecast charts and explanation I showed 

[Cloud 10]

Clear to see how the GFS 18z has backed things west when comparing its last 3 runs for 

Saturday.

 

4th... 5th..

6th..

Edited January 6, 2014 by Cloud 10

[nick sussex]

yeh your right we have seen it happen before!!got a feeling that by tomorrow 12z ukmo will be on board!!

I hope you're right! we've had quite a few dramas over the years with the UKMO refusing to go along with the others. I'm always much more comfortable if the odd one out is the GFS rather than the UKMO.

 

I suspect there'll be a good turnout in here to see tomorrows drama unfold, hopefully we get a happy ending!

[LomondSnowstorm]

I'm assuming the people who so were so righteously defending the GFS will finally jump off the 'zonality express' and at least consider the potential on offer now that it's (predictably) moved very strongly towards the more amplified solution over the last 36 hours?

In all seriousness, a finely balanced setup, and it will be interesting to see whether the Fax charts are modified (I suspect they will, but how much by?). It's entirely possible, and quite likely, that tonight's UKMO op is simply one of a smallish cluster of less amplified runs (it'd be surprising if we didn't see the odd 'rogue' run given these are deterministic models dealing with complex setups at fairly long timescales) and that by tomorrow it'll be back on board with the initial amplification. However, we certainly can't take that for granted given how finely balanced the setup is. If we can get past that point we're still not done with the drama by any means as we still need some kind of 'trigger' low to usher in the easterly flow, and with heights over Europe higher than we'd like that won't necessarily be an easy process. I suspect we'll here more about 'Shannon Entropy' in the coming days (certainly if we do get the initial amplification) with troughing attempting to disrupt southeastwards and the potential for the British Isles to be caught in a battleground between undercutting troughs and the ridge to our northeast.
Certainly the most interesting period of model watching this winter, although that's akin to saying that it's the best Man Utd performance of the season

[gottolovethisweather]

Clear to see how the GFS 18z has backed things west when comparing its last 3 runs for 

Saturday.

 

4th...b.png 5th..c.png

6th..a.png

 

And precisely how all of us should view the GFS as well without going overboard, study each run in a like for like fashion.   Well spotted.  

Edited January 6, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[Cloud 10]

did anyone do the homework I set regarding the setting up of a Scandinavian ridge using the basic forecast charts and explanation I showed 

 

I would have had a bash at it but can't open doc. files on my computer.

 

Maybe best to open a new thread for it as it could pretty interesting.

[nick sussex]

UKMO fax chart for T120hrs looks very similar to the raw output, I would put it up but frankly seeing it once was enough! I am surprised the UKMO haven't modified it strongly towards the ECM but anyway we'll just have to see in the morning whether we get a move from it.

[shaky]

Have any of you seen yhe last 3 or 4 runs from the cfs run??its been showing a scandi high formation from as early as 96 hours for the past 4 runs in a row I think!!we just might have an upgrade tomorrow!!

[Chris K]

A very interesting set of runs this afternoon & evening. As others have already stated, it is still finely balanced and we will need to continue to see more consistency between all the models and *hopefully* see an interesting pattern change taking hold. 

 

Is it sad that I'm about to rush to bed so I can wake up in anticipation of the morning runs? Let's hope they continue the improving cold signal theme of tonight! 

[shaky]

UKMO fax chart for T120hrs looks very similar to the raw output, I would put it up but frankly seeing it once was enough! I am surprised the UKMO haven't modified it strongly towards the ECM but anyway we'll just have to see in the morning whether we get a move from it.

they were always gona do that nick!!until they are pretty confident of a pattern change they will stick to their raw output!!I think we need ian ferguson to come back on this thread to give us an insight of what the meto are thinking.

[draztik]

Latest ec32 update sees heights build over Scandi from late wkend, but the signal recedes into wk 2. Thereafter we return to old faithful. Troughing to our NW, extending thru greenland., and general zonality is restored - and it remains until the end of its run into Feb. So the latest monthly still suggesting unsettled, (probably trending around average? Ian? Maybe below average)… but very little to write home about in terms of a big freeze. Not from the synoptics indicated. This is now, I believe, the third/fourth run indicating this overall pattern.

Edited January 6, 2014 by draztik

[Frosty.]

I'm fed up of the constant gfs bashing on here, its as good a model as any. All the models have strengths and weaknesses, ups and downs and the ecm has been abysmal at times.

Edited January 6, 2014 by Frosty.

[Panayiotis]

HAHA. The CFS is a thing of beauty! And so is the CFS 9month!!

Edited January 6, 2014 by Panayiotis

[Cheshire Freeze]

Latest ec32 update sees heights build over Scandi from late wkend, but the signal recedes into wk 2. Thereafter we return to old faithful. Troughing to our NW, extending thru greenland., and general zonality is restored - and it remains until the end of its run into Feb. So the latest monthly still suggesting unsettled, (probably trending around average? Ian? Maybe below average)… but very little to write home about in terms of a big freeze. Not from the synoptics indicated. This is now, I believe, the third/fourth run indicating this overall pattern.

 

I thought the last update was showing unrelenting zonal? Now we have Scandi heights followed by zonal....

[shaky]

Latest ec32 update sees heights build over Scandi from late wkend, but the signal recedes into wk 2. Thereafter we return to old faithful. Troughing to our NW, extending thru greenland., and general zonality is restored - and it remains until the end of its run into Feb. So the latest monthly still suggesting unsettled, (probably trending around average? Ian? Maybe below average)… but very little to write home about in terms of a big freeze. Not from the synoptics indicated. This is now, I believe, the third/fourth run indicating this overall pattern.

was it indicating any scandi heights for the coming weekend in its last update?cos if not then its got it wrong at short notice already so anything that it shows from or after week 2 could be wrong aswell!

[Eskimo]

How do I view the CFS? Thanks!

[Captain Shortwave]

GFS mean for around day 6

Previous one

Definite improvement with more members going for this ridge.

As for the UKMO it's simple, it's either right or it has made a major balls up. Even with a years experience I've seen it do both. The October cooler spell was an outlier UKMO at days 5/6. It was near enough spot on. March 2013, it didn't pick up the trigger shortwave to that extensive cold spell until 36 hours away.

Lets hope it backs down tomorrow, because from experience that model can stick with an outlier solution for a long long time (even if it's wrong). Much worse on the nerves than the GFS which will always back down in the 3-4 day range and it will do it step wise. 

Edited January 6, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[draztik]

I thought the last update was showing unrelenting zonal? Now we have Scandi heights followed by zonal....

 

Just informing you what the model indicates. Don't shoot the messenger