Wales, The Midlands and Southwest England - Regional Weather Chat

[J10]

A glorious start to the morning, but with a bit of morning cloud build uphere, but went to the beach and glorious weather. Temps 20c.

[Dancerwithwings]

Palm trees, sea brezzes, going to beach and Mediterranean like skies..... God it sucks sometimes living right in the middle of England

[Mapantz]

It is still 20.5°C now..

[J10]

I think we had better make the most of it, things go down hill late next week.

[William Grimsley]

I think we had better make the most of it, things go down hill late next week.

I wouldn't call it going down hill. More average weather.

[Costa Del Fal]

Indeed, think some of the coldies are getting way ahead of themselves in the MOD thread. More unsettled yes but hardly surprising after we have been under a firm HP for 2 weeks or so now at least by the end of the week. Still a hell of a lot of changes between runs and apart from the UKMO, none look that bad next weekend unlike what was shown a couple of days ago. Watch it all get watered down as usual.

[Polar Maritime]

Just showing the extremes within the chars with such uncertainty 

[Costa Del Fal]

Just showing the extremes within the chars with such uncertainty 

Indeed, a hell of a lot of it. Wouldnt want to call next weekend myself right now though quite sure it will be more changeable but nothing too extreme imo. 

 

Probably a band of rain, then sunshine and a few showers, 17-21c.

[J10]

I wouldn't call it going down hill. More average weather.

 

Firstly average weather is going downhill after the recent spell, and it is current forecast to be worse than average for the latter part of next week.

[Polar Maritime]

 Probably a band of rain, then sunshine and a few showers, 17-21c.

 

That's just it, The Models are showing a probables of all sorts.

[cyclonic happiness]

Just had a shower of rain here!

[Dancerwithwings]

Snow capped Lickey's in the Winter...pure heaven

Yep! come Winter we will enjoy Blizzy or now Costa Del Fal can enjoy what's now

[MP-R]

I call snow for the end of the week...

 

Anyway, lovely last two days in London, bit cloudier yesterday but beautiful sunshine today. I will actually be able to enjoy sitting in the garden tomorrow so it better be sunny again! Not bothered about during the week next week but maybe cloudier at times as the week goes on.

[knocker]

William perhaps being a little more circumspect wouldn't go amiss. I think J10s comment will encompass all of the models and his own experience. Good enough?

[Polar Maritime]

Don't argue with me. What forecasts are you looking at?

 

The Models do show this William.. Let's keep this a friendly discussion 

 

 

A dry morning here, With sunny spells and a light N/W Wind, Hopefully the cloud will burn off a little later. Temp currently 13.2c.

Edited June 22, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[J10]

Don't argue with me. What forecasts are you looking at?

I am not arguing with anyone, just pointing out my thoughts. But if you want evidence of my thoughts, look at my Glastonbury blog yesterday,

 

Link here http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/189/entry-4791-glastonbury-festival-2014-25-to-29-june-forecast-no-14-issued-21-june/

 

which more than anything demonstrates the deterioration of the weather as we move later in this week. This was based on yesterday's models.

 

In fact the above post by Polar Maritime seems to suggest that the GFS today has come on board with ECM and UKMO, which is not good news.

[conor123]

Back from a week of 31-33c in Marmaris and it's shockingly sunny in Telford  looks like a lovely Sunday!

[Evening thunder]

A surprisingly warm 22C at 10am here. 

 

Overnight low 10.4C.I wouldn't mind a bit of changeable/unsettled weather, had 11 days in a row of above average maxima here and 2 weeks since any rain, if the MetO outlook of more settled/warm conditions into the 2nd week of July comes off I'd probably want a bit of rain before then. I wouldn't like it to last too long though of course, or at least consist of sunshine with showers and not too much cloud.

Edited June 22, 2014 by Evening thunder

[Dancerwithwings]

Broken cloud here but plenty of the blue stuff, didn't expect it to be as warm so early, in the 20's at 11am, can't be bad..... LOVE IT   

[TonyH]

I wouldn't call it going down hill. More average weather.

Agreed its not a terrible outlook although uncertain (as usual!):

http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/309/entry-4793-weather-guide-monday-23rd-to-sunday-29th-june-2014/

[TonyH]

Just had a shower of rain here!

Not much - no measurable rain across the Midlands past 24 hours!

http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynext?lang=en&state=United+K&rank=100&ano=2014&mes=06&day=22&hora=06&Send=send

[Costa Del Fal]

Good grief some awful charts for next weekend/early July. Hope this doesn't get locked in as it could destroy part of the peak time if summer (mid July) but I just hope things get watered down and change quickly.

[Mapantz]

It's warm today! Bournemouth must have sea breezes today, 2C lower there than here, not a breath of wind to be had.

[Evening thunder]

Doesn't look so bad to me apart from the odd anomalous ensemble member that seems to have been picked out showing a deep low in FI.after a dip to about 5c uppers (Could still bring maxima near 20C in the south) the GFS ensemble mean looks firmly average http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

ECM ensemble mean doesn't end too badly either http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gifIt may be just a few days unsettled/cool, and that may be showery and near average if the low this coming weekend is slack enough, before a more typical westerly pattern with high pressure ridges into the south. Of course, it might not be and could be worse, but that genuinely applies to most model outputs at this range

 

A lovely day again and 23-24C here at the moment. 

[MP-R]

Do wish this cloud would Swearing AGAIN off. Virtually no wind meaning half the time the sun isn't out. Shove it!