Model Output Discussion 31/07/14 onwards.

[Frosty.]

I don't agree at all with the it's awful comments..in fact what we are looking at is literally a breath of fresh air with relatively cooler oceanic conditions from the atlantic seeping in for pretty much the first time this summer bringing a mixture of long sunny spells and sharp showers with a risk of thunder, warm in the sunny spells with temperatures never worse than 21c 70f across the south / southeast, midweek closer to 23c 73f in and around london, yes it will be nearer 17-19c away from the south but it makes a nice change from stifling heat and humidity. By friday it looks generally drier and sunnier from the west as an atlantic ridge topples southeastwards across the west & south and it improves further into next weekend because it's looking fine and warmer across the south of the uk by then with high pressure briefly gaining the upper hand but remaining cooler and more showery to the north west. After another unsettled blip the Ecm 12z op run then shows high pressure building in from the north west later in FI with a calm, fine and pleasantly warm end to the run..awful..certainly not.

[ANYWEATHER]

I don't agree at all with the it's awful comments..in fact what we are looking at is literally a breath of fresh air with relatively cooler oceanic conditions from the atlantic seeping in for pretty much the first time this summer bringing a mixture of long sunny spells and sharp showers with a risk of thunder, warm in the sunny spells with temperatures never worse than 21c 70f across the south / southeast, midweek closer to 23c 73f in and around london, yes it will be nearer 17-19c away from the south but it makes a nice change from stifling heat and humidity. By friday it looks generally drier and sunnier from the west as an atlantic ridge topples southeastwards across the west & south and it improves further into next weekend because it's looking fine and warmer across the south of the uk by then with high pressure briefly gaining the upper hand but remaining cooler and more showery to the north west. After another unsettled blip the Ecm 12z op run then shows high pressure building in from the north west later in FI with a calm, fine and pleasantly warm end to the run..awful..certainly not.

They are not awful comments they are coming straight from the models, if folk want a continuation of summer weather as what we have had in June and July then they best catch a plane.....    

[Polar Maritime]

Can we try and keep to Model Output Discussion in here.

Many Thanks, PM

Edited August 10, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Frosty.]

Jeez it's been a very good summer, there was bound to be a less summery spell somewhere along the line. The week ahead is not awful, it's not a washout, there will be sunny spells each day but with a scattering of showers. I for one will enjoy the fresher weather.

[Frosty.]

They are not awful comments they are coming straight from the models, if folk want a continuation of summer weather as what we have had in June and July then they best catch a plane.....    

I think most of us are realistic..I never expected an August 1995 heatwave. The models are showing normal late summer weather once the potent remnants of bertha are out of the way, bright and breezy, showery weather..and it stays on the warm side in the south with temperatures around 70F.

[Cloud 10]

Jeez it's been a very good summer, there was bound to be a less summery spell somewhere along the line. The week ahead is not awful, it's not a washout, there will be sunny spells each day but with a scattering of showers. I for one will enjoy the fresher weather.

 

I for two will also enjoy the fresher weather.

 

Day 7 ensemble mean from tonight's ECM showing the scandi-trough/mid atlantic ridge scenario which has been a rarity so far this year.

 

[IDO]

The trend by the GEFS to down play earlier hi res runs for a brief ridge at the weekend continues this morning. Both op, control and mean now dismiss the pressure build and have the trough with us for the weekend:

 

]   

 

So we keep closer to average temps for the south. Possibly a warm front straddling the country Sunday so could be wet in the south.

 

The week 2 output keeps us in a trough with a low being fed a a cool wet 3-4 days as the LP moves west to NE:

 

D8:    D9:  

 

GEM supports this general pattern but has a less active LP system in the trough: 

 

So a better outlook, more showery and warmer, especially for the south. GEM has also moved towards the GFS with now only a very brief ridge at the end of the week so by D7:

 

 

As was suggested yesterday the ECM 12z was out of sync and this morning it moves back towards the GFS:

 

D6:  D7:  D8: 

 

It is also developing the week 2 LP. Interesting this LP is a Tropical low that models suggest will not develop into a storm, though again it has UK in its sight re track and may again interact with the jet and trough. One to watch.

 

So a couple of weeks of more mixed output with higher pressure unlikely to figure. Of course it is the second week of August so temps in the south won't be bad when the sun gets out however compared to June and July, relatively a lot fresher and cooler.

Edited August 11, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[Polar Maritime]

Again the GFS is showing quite a cool/unsettled Autumnal run this Morning, With a N/W/ to North flow maintained through-out the run until way out in FI. ECMWF also seems to follow this same theme.

 

Edited August 11, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Captain Shortwave]

UKMO still going for something different next weekend.

That low over Iceland is a few hundred miles west of the other models and holds higher heights over the UK more bullishly than the other models. Still a lot of be resolved with respect to that cut off Atlantic low and the amplified upstream pattern.

[mushymanrob]

I think most of us are realistic..I never expected an August 1995 heatwave. The models are showing normal late summer weather once the potent remnants of bertha are out of the way, bright and breezy, showery weather. .and it stays on the warm side in the south with temperatures around 70F.

 

agreed with your post except the bib...i suspect that many, like me, dont care what the southeast gets, most of us dont live there! we are interested in what we get where we live and the temps this week will be decidedly on the chilly side (in the mornings)  especially in the breeze. so i dont think that generally itll be 'on the warm side', its looking for most average at best, and through the mid-month period. that might suit many who dont like warmth, but its looking like yet another dissappointing august for summer warmth.

 

no signes of anything changing anytime soon IF this is accurate (and is consistent with previous runs)

 

[Man With Beard]

That would be nice but GFS hi-res max out at between 19-21c this week in the south, but much of the country a lot cooler.

 

48-582UK.GIF  72-582UK.GIF

 

ECM mean supports the GFS with more of a trough influence than the op's high:

 

OP:  ECM101-240.GIF  Mean: EDM101-240.GIF

 

But would not take a major pattern shift to improve the outlook.

Just picked up on your comment - I've followed GFS predicted maxes all summer and they are consistently 2C down on actual maxes

[Scorcher]

Just picked up on your comment - I've followed GFS predicted maxes all summer and they are consistently 2C down on actual maxes

 

Agreed, sometimes more rjbw, and I hope that is the case again this week. It's perhaps been more pronounced this year than previous years. Still we haven't really had a cool northwest flow like this one for some time.

[knocker]

Next week is looking distinctly chilly. Both the GEFS and ECM 500mb anomalies have a deep trough over Scandinavia stretching over the UK with the warm air over Greenland. The Azores high is pushed south with the jet running on a southerly route curtailing any ingress of warmer air. On the surface this feeds in colder air from the low pressure to the east giving temps way below average and quite cold in northern Scotland.

Edited August 11, 2014 by knocker

[phil nw.]

Next week is looking distinctly chilly. Both the GEFS and ECM 500mb anomalies have a deep trough over Scandinavia stretching over the UK with the warm air over Greenland. The Azores high is pushed south with the jet running on a southerly route curtailing any ingress of warmer air. On the surface this feeds in colder air from the low pressure to the east giving temps way below average and quite cold in northern Scotland.

Yes Knocker the cooler pattern with the Scandi trough looks like the main feature for the coming week.

The London Ens graphs indicating the drop in expected surface temperatures from both suites.

 

maximums down to high teens maybe just struggling to 20C even down here.A much different feel to things compared to recent weeks.

[mushymanrob]

hmm.... not exactly agreeing with my earlier post now, at least today isnt as cool as i expected ... perhaps im forgetting its still mid august whilst viewing the models and the sun is strong. in the sun it is pretty warm, even if the air temps are down.

[Captain Shortwave]

Model output for this coming Sunday (T144)

UKMO

England and Wales fine and warm, the north cloudier with rain at times.

 

GFS

The south hangs on to drier weather with fronts a little further south than the UKMO.

 

GEM

Similar surface conditions to the UKMO.

 

Note the one key similarity between the three, the trough is now aligned SW/NE with heights building over Europe, this is very different to this morning with a more general UKMO/Scandi trough and shows that yesterdays UKMO outputs were onto something with this. The crucial element is that warmer air can get transported towards the UK and could offer up a greater variety of solutions going forward. One example is what happens to the GEM.

An attempted link up of heights over Greenland and the Euro ridge, producing a southerly plume around the redeveloped Atlantic low. A hot outlier but certainly possible from the day 6 output. The good news is that next weekend could very well be fine and dry for the south, maybe only Saturday for the north but still all up for grabs really.

Edited August 11, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[h2005__uk__]

This is the third or fourth time over the last fortnight that the models have teased us with a sign to some settled conditions - hopefully they'll deliver this time.

 

Of course ideally we'd have a Spanish plume event before summer's over!

 

(Swiftly followed by early snow in October of course, to balance things out and please everyone here )

[stainesbloke]

Model output for this coming Sunday (T144)

UKMO

England and Wales fine and warm, the north cloudier with rain at times.

 

GFS

The south hangs on to drier weather with fronts a little further south than the UKMO.

 

GEM

Similar surface conditions to the UKMO.

 

Note the one key similarity between the three, the trough is now aligned SW/NE with heights building over Europe, this is very different to this morning with a more general UKMO/Scandi trough and shows that yesterdays UKMO outputs were onto something with this. The crucial element is that warmer air can get transported towards the UK and could offer up a greater variety of solutions going forward. One example is what happens to the GEM.

An attempted link up of heights over Greenland and the Euro ridge, producing a southerly plume around the redeveloped Atlantic low. A hot outlier but certainly possible from the day 6 output. The good news is that next weekend could very well be fine and dry for the south, maybe only Saturday for the north but still all up for grabs really.

Am liking your optimism CS, I had a feeling that the models were overdoing the troughing to the NE somewhat. A warmer and dry weekend for the S particularly is just what many are looking for and that FI GEM chart is a thing of beauty lol. Nice to look at anyway but very interesting model output at the moment.

[IDO]

Lots of spread this weekend, more uncertain than the 06z: 

 

So for the south about 5c difference in 2m temps, dependant on how much the pressure builds. The control really deepens that tropical low as it links with the jet:

 

 

The mean at D8 does suggest that this weekends southern pressure build has no longevity: 

 

I will be interested whether the GEM op has any support as the 0z op was optimistic for the weekend compared to its mean. ECM this morning was probably over doing the trough for the weekend. NAVGEM was supporting the UKMO on the 0z but now is trough dominated:

 

Tonight:  This morning: 

 

Models struggling with the battle between the Azores and Scandi trough. ECM tonight has a 24 hours south bias brief ridge this Saturday before another attack from the NW:

 

 

 

Still looks like at the best a brief respite this Saturday before a return to more unsettled for week 2.

Edited August 11, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[ANYWEATHER]

The weekends weather is still up for grabs, anyone wanting settled ,warm ,fine summer weather may well be disappointed!

[Man With Beard]

Model output for this coming Sunday (T144)

UKMO

England and Wales fine and warm, the north cloudier with rain at times.

GFS

The south hangs on to drier weather with fronts a little further south than the UKMO.

GEM

Similar surface conditions to the UKMO.

Note the one key similarity between the three, the trough is now aligned SW/NE with heights building over Europe, this is very different to this morning with a more general UKMO/Scandi trough and shows that yesterdays UKMO outputs were onto something with this. The crucial element is that warmer air can get transported towards the UK and could offer up a greater variety of solutions going forward. One example is what happens to the GEM.

An attempted link up of heights over Greenland and the Euro ridge, producing a southerly plume around the redeveloped Atlantic low. A hot outlier but certainly possible from the day 6 output. The good news is that next weekend could very well be fine and dry for the south, maybe only Saturday for the north but still all up for grabs really.

Worth pointing out that GEM was excellent on Bertha at the T192-T240 range, often in stark contrast to the other models - so not a run to dismiss.

Generally speaking, it does look like a ridge might make it across the south this weekend, cutting off the northerly element and hence warmer for all. ECM is the only dissenter - but it's probably up to its old tricks of overdoing northern heights.

[phil nw.]

Not a great outlook for the end of the week.

Comparing T120 hrs the UKMO seems the keenest on any ridging for Saturday but in any event it looks to be a brief affair.

It still looks a rather cool and mobile Atlantic pattern and if the modeled Greenland high materialises it will ensure a continuation of this into the following week.

[ANYWEATHER]

You can hop, spit and shout even jump , but ecm and gfs  are holding hands at an unsettled weekend. As always in these situations , the southeast of England will probably hold the fairest weather,

Edited August 11, 2014 by ANYWEATHER

[summer blizzard]

Euro sticking to its guns. Beautiful.

 

[johnholmes]

Agreed, sometimes more rjbw, and I hope that is the case again this week. It's perhaps been more pronounced this year than previous years. Still we haven't really had a cool northwest flow like this one for some time.

 

Just a minor point, IF you are taking say the 1800 chart or any other chart that Net Wx for example shows, they are not max temperatures for the day, max temperatures at that hour. It can and quite often does make a difference.

 

As for next wekend, 6 days down the line  on Sunday then the 500mb anomaly charts are not what some of you want to see. They might be welcomed with open arms in the winter period!

links below

NOAA

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

EC-GFS

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_12z/hgtcomp.html

 

And they are all fairly consistent with one another and themselves over the last few days on this pattern.

Edited August 11, 2014 by johnholmes