Model Output Discussion 31/07/14 onwards.

[mushymanrob]

I think some people are misinterpreting Frosty's posts, thinking that he is saying a return to summery weather is a definite outcome...

 

 

it's the longer term signal for the weather to become more summery again no matter what you say,

 

seems pretty clear to me chris...

[knocker]

 

the upper air pattern determines what the surface air pattern we get. the anomaly charts which when in agreement over several runs (which they are) give a pretty accurate prediction of what the upper air pattern will be. the current concensus across the board is that the upper air will see a large/strong high over to our northwest, and a trough over our northeast. this pattern is expected to last most of the rest of the month, at least, and thatll produce a cool, northerly scourced airflow.

 

heres the latest.... see the trough? see the high? and thats the expected 8-10 day mean.

 

 

 

that is the most likely upper air pattern that transferres to the surface as a cool, showery, northerly scourced air.

 

to get a settled spell, the green lines would need to 'bump upwards' and grow apart over or near to us. like what these charts show between greenland and iceland. unfortunately they dip down over us, meaning that we are likely to be trough dominated, and thats a long way from being 'settled'. .... hence my scepticism at posts ramping up possible settling down. until these charts support it...it will not happen.

 

 

Just to add to what Mushy has said computer models usually forecast the 500mb level better than surface conditions at longer ranges.

 

NB. This " you are not allowed to post this type of image" is getting a little annoying.

Edited August 14, 2014 by knocker

[Frosty.]

seems pretty clear to me chris...

mushy rob i'm only going by what the models (ensembles) have been showing for a few days now, not just one set of runs, and I have also taken note of comments made by a few experts in the media. I believe once the scandi trough clears off that we will see the azores anticyclone ridge towards the uk, at least across the south. I'm a little fed up now of some comments on here having a pop at my ability to read the models..i'm a weather enthusiast who posts on here all year round and have done for the last 9 years. If I continue to be questioned like this I won't bother.

[ANYWEATHER]

mushy rob i'm only going by what the models (ensembles) have been showing for a few days now, not just one set of runs, and I have also taken note of comments made by a few experts in the media. I believe once the scandi trough clears off that we will see the azores anticyclone ridge towards the uk, at least across the south. I'm a little fed up now of some comments on here having a pop at my ability to read the models..i'm a weather enthusiast who posts on here all year round and have done for the last 9 years. If I continue to be questioned like this I won't bother.

Its quite clear from looking at the models ,that we are all locked into an unsettled and cool spell for the foreseeable reliable timeframe. Nothing at all to suggest that high pressure will build strongly over the Uk as yet. Looks decidedly even cooler next week, if models are correctly showing the trend......  At the end of the day,please lets keep it friendly on here, everyone is entitled to there opinion, whether one agrees with it or not. Afterall ,the weather will do what it will do....

Edited August 14, 2014 by ANYWEATHER

[Frosty.]

Its quite clear from looking at the models ,that we are all locked into an unsettled and cool spell for the foreseeable reliable timeframe. Nothing at all to suggest that high pressure will build strongly over the Uk as yet. Looks decidedly even cooler next week, if models are correctly showing the trend......

don't you ever look beyond the foreseeable reliable timeframe? the ensemble mean shows a slow improvement as time goes on, I don't believe the trough next week will persist into the following week..i'm looking for a way out of the cool unsettled pattern, as i'm sure many are...the silent majority indeed.

[ANYWEATHER]

don't you ever look beyond the foreseeable reliable timeframe? the ensemble mean shows a slow improvement as time goes on, I don't believe the trough next week will persist into the following week..i'm looking for a way out of the cool unsettled pattern, as i'm sure many are...the silent majority indeed.

Yes I certainly do ,I regularly post charts at T+240, as way of a comparison to each model.  Your entitled to your opinion, as everyone is and this we should try to respect. each others view. Nothing however warrants me to express another view than what I have expressed before on the poor late summer weather....Sorry Frosty, but that's the way I see it. Hopefully ,we will see a major change down the line, but Im not holding my breath.

[IDO]

don't you ever look beyond the foreseeable reliable timeframe? the ensemble mean shows a slow improvement as time goes on, I don't believe the trough next week will persist into the following week..i'm looking for a way out of the cool unsettled pattern, as i'm sure many are...the silent majority indeed.

 

 

Hi Frosty.

 

According to the 0z ensembles for GFS there is about 33% of higher pressure moving in as early as D9. JMA, ECM and CFS all trending to build pressure in the last week of August. Tentative signs but more than hopeful.

[Polar Maritime]

I have deleted some Off Topic Posts.

 

I think were all pretty clear now that there are tentative signs in the Models of the Weather settling down towards the end of the Month... That's not before the Cooler more Unsettled spell, Which is only just arriving as we speak.    

 

Lets please draw a line under this once and for all, And continue to discuss the Model Output's in a respectful friendly manner. 

 

And Frosty please don't let anyone put you off from posting! I had enough with Knocker this Morning 

 

Many Thanks, PM

Edited August 14, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[summer blizzard]

Lovely output for those on the climb down, the models to day 8 are steadfast in their resolve. If a warm spell is coming, its going to be very late in the month since this takes us to the 22nd.

 

[Frosty.]

Guys, as most of you know, i'm always looking for the positives the models have to offer (especially during summer)..in winter i'm always looking for snow and frost..no joy there last winter, hopeful this time.. but even I can't sugar coat the Ecm 12z op run tonight, it shows the uk locked into a cool and unsettled spell throughout next week but at least away from the north east corner of the uk, the isobars really open out so winds should become light and variable and there will be sunny periods but next week looks like a shower fest which has it's good points because i'm a storm enthusiast too, the charts next week look like the perfect breeding ground for many slow moving and heavy, thundery downpours to break out each day with slack trough conditions, lowest pressure close to NE Scotland with more persistent rain likely there. Temperatures look disappointing for mid / late august, around 19c for the south and feeling pleasant in any decent sunny spells, 16-17c across the middle of the uk and a poor 13-15c for n.ireland & scotland. The azores high tries to ridge in towards the end of next week but any significant improvement would be beyond T+240 hours based on this run.

[ANYWEATHER]

Unsettled and cool conditions to day8 from both ecm and gfs then a pressure rise at T+240   :rofl:

[Blessed Weather]

Next week not looking ideal for camping in the Cairngorms! Tonight's ECM 12z T850 hPa output showing the 0c isotherm reaching the far north of Scotland on Monday and staying for an unwelcome 4 days until Thurs 21st before upper temps finally recover on Friday. Great for skiing in January, not so clever for hill walkers in August!

 

[ANYWEATHER]

Next week not looking ideal for camping in the Cairngorms! Tonight's ECM 12z T850 hPa output showing the 0c isotherm reaching the far north of Scotland on Monday and staying for an unwelcome 4 days until Thurs 21st before upper temps finally recover on Friday. Great for skiing in January, not so clever for hill walkers in August!

 

http:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/tctc91_simplify/attachicon.gifecmt850_168 Thu 21 Aug.jpg

Models are indicating a very cold pulse of air across Scotland next week and reaching down to Southern England ......

[Frank Trough]

Lovely output for those on the climb down, the models to day 8 are steadfast in their resolve. If a warm spell is coming, its going to be very late in the month since this takes us to the 22nd.

 

 

or in september....or perhaps the return to southwesterlies will wait until december?

 

It'll be nice on bournemouth beach - sheltered from the wind, strong august sunshine.......the beach huts will be populated. Not my cup of tea, though. That wind is going to be fairly unpleasant next week everywhere else. At least it's not going to be a wash out.

 

GFS operational again shows the ridge bumping far enough east towards bank holiday to make it a bit more pleasant:

 

 

ECM less bullish, but it wouldn't be all that bad. Actually looks very similar to 00z mean from today:

 

 

So, rubbish next week unless you like autumn coming early with still only tentative signs of something slightly better towards the end of the week....and that will probably change so we'll have to just wait and see.

 

Still plenty of time for some warmer weather before the bartlett sets up for winter.

[damianslaw]

Very little change in the models from what they were showing this time yesterday. A firmly chilly unsettled outlook for the foreseeable future. It was only 11 degrees at 6pm here - very chilly indeed!

[knocker]

The anomalies for the Bank Holiday weekend are in pretty good agreement with the Greenland high and Scandinavian trough dominating.

 

On the surface this translates to a slack area of pressure over the UK with the Azores ridge nudging in from the SW. Temps are well below average but the weather and distribution of temps is dependent on the precise synoptic set up at the time so too early to call.

 

[Frosty.]

Better news from tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean, feels like it's been worth talking up the chances of a more settled trend by the Bank Holiday weekend, a much more significant pressure rise across the south by the end of next week, the mean looks a lot better than the op that's for sure..big things have small beginnings, I hope this locks in as the trend.

[Captain Shortwave]

There are signs that the cool unsettled conditions might relent to some degree during the second half of next week with pressure steadily rising as low pressure to the north east fills and drifts eastwards. But at this present moment there is no real sign of a robust build of heights from the west and hence at this moment any pressure build in the week 2 range should be treated with caution, just in case there is a renewed push of cold unstable air down from the Arctic. 

So next week will start off chilly, particularly so in Eastern areas with a brisk north westerly wind. Showers will be widespread at first, but will become confined to more northern and eastern areas as the week goes on as conditions gradually improve from the south west.

 

There are still hints from the ensembles that high pressure could ridge in for the bank holiday weekend

 

But this is too far away to give any confidence on a forecast. The GEM ens are similar to the ECM whilst the GFS is flatter. They all rely on the collapse of the strong ridge in the Atlantic into Greenland which ushers in the pattern change. Are the models being too bullish about this breakdown of the ridge?

Edited August 14, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Bobd29]

Better news from tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean, feels like it's been worth talking up the chances of a more settled trend by the Bank Holiday weekend, a much more significant pressure rise across the south by the end of next week, the mean looks a lot better than the op that's for sure..big things have small beginnings, I hope this locks in as the trend.

Always value your input Frosty and you are not just a seasonal poster, don't be put off by those who do not have your unbiased knowledge or enthusiasm. For the record I agree with your synopsis, scandi trough moving allowing the AH to make a welcome return for the bank holiday, with luck it may stay well into September.....indian summer anyone?

[Cloud 10]

The scandi trough doesn't look like going anywhere fast once it sets up according to the NAEFS and 12z ECM ensemble mean at day 10,although as has been mentioned we might get lucky with a bank holiday ridge.

 

[phil nw.]

The cooling effects of the Scandi trough will be with us for much of next week with bands of showery rain and depressed temperatures.

Looking through the GFS and ECM means though the suggestion of a warm up is very much there and even by day 10 we can see the 5C isotherm on the 850's has moved  north.

The trend continues thereafter with the Azores high ridging towards the south of the UK.

 

An improvement of sorts but i would think locations further north would remain more changeable in the westerly pattern that looks likely to evolve from there.

Edited August 14, 2014 by phil nw.

[johnholmes]

Sorry if my post re the anomaly charts cause any upset, Certainly it was not meant to do so and in no way any dig at any poster that takes the time and trouble to post charts to illustrate their idea of what any particular model is showing.

There is room for all in here with differing views provided charts or links to them are given.

As to the anomaly charts, then the 6-10 day does seem much as before, that is what we have=rather unsettled and not especially warm other than the odd day for a few sheltered spots. In the 8-14 day scale then, possibly, some indivation that this spell may begin to relent a little.

Why?

The flow turn  westerly rather than north of west, it also decreases in strength (this is at 500mb). There are indications that the +ve heights, not large, but possibly enough to assist this are predicted to move nearer to western parts of the UK.

Too early certainly to be dogmatic about it but possibly the first signs of an improvement. If they still show in 3 days time then, yes, end of month for this improvement, but not the BH in general would be my suggestion.

links to NOAA 6-10 and 8-14

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

and to EC-GFS

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Edited August 14, 2014 by johnholmes

[Frosty.]

Always value your input Frosty and you are not just a seasonal poster, don't be put off by those who do not have your unbiased knowledge or enthusiasm. For the record I agree with your synopsis, scandi trough moving allowing the AH to make a welcome return for the bank holiday, with luck it may stay well into September.....indian summer anyone?

Thanks for that, yes i'm quietly confident something more summery will return just in time for the last days of this meteorological summer but most of next week looks unseasonably cool. more like autumn.

[SteveB]

Well there's no getting away from it, next week is looking cool/chilly especially overnight.

 

Bank holiday is still open for debate......

 

 

Edited August 15, 2014 by SteveB

[knocker]

A brief look at the GFS ops for the holiday weekend and a snapshot through the mirror at the next week. I know, I know, Guilty as charged.

Edited August 15, 2014 by knocker