Model Output Discussion 31/07/14 onwards.

[Nick F]

Yes, there does seem to be a problem uploading images this morning.

 

Anyway, 00z GEM, UKMO, GFS and ECM all now agree on taking ex-Cristobal NE across Iceland area, as a rather deep depression on ECM.

 

It leaves a mean upper trough mid-Atlantic and a strong signal for a ridge north ahead of this across western Europe from 00z GFS and EC 8-10day H500:

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

This follows on from similar support form yesterday's CPC 8-14day H500:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814day.03.gif

 

ECM seems keenest to advect the warmest air north to the UK, +15C T850 isotherm edging in across the SW of England first w/e of September, so could be looking at high 20s deg C. I'm camping in Somerset that weekend, so fingers crossed!

Edited August 27, 2014 by Nick F

[Summer Sun]

Looks like Cristobal is going to have a positive affect on the UK by missing us and allowing high pressure and warmth to return next week as hinted by the beeb last night

 

 

UKMO also showing high pressure returning

 

 

As Frosty would say

 

Bank!

 

Edited August 27, 2014 by Summer Sun

[shaky]

To be fair I've been watching the daily cfs model runs and it has also been hinting at high pressure for September since the 2nd week of august!!hats off to the cfs aswell!!

[Frosty.]

please fix the thingy which allows uploading charts, some lovely charts this morning to share with y'all.

[Man With Beard]

ECM / GFS anomalies 8-10 days suggest as conclusive a UK High as you are likely to see:

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

ECM D10 mean chart is still good but suggests a little scope for a change by next weekend - HP conditions still favoured I would suggest, but just the chance of a westerly influence:

http://meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=0&type=1&archive=0 (then select T240 from left menu)

I've read some speculation re: temps - it's still a little early to pin temps down as the orientation of the high will determine things - however, current models, to me, suggest 22C-25C quite widely for England and Wales (less in Scotland where the sun is already losing its strength) and possibly 25-27C in the south at the very peak. I don't think 30C is possible without a pronounced southerly feed - to get those really high temperatures from a home grown source at this time of year, I feel, depends upon warmth already being in situ from August. But we're still looking at one of the warmest weeks of the year all the same.

[vladthemert]

Don't want to dampen the high pressure but the track Cristobal not nailed yet latest NOAA predictions is we must be wary as the latest Christobal models tracking is to faroe isles and not iceland now.  That is quite a shift in track in such short space of time and similar shift again would evaporate those high pressure forecasts.

 

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/083415.shtml?gm_track#contents   

[Man With Beard]

Don't want to dampen the high pressure but the track Cristobal not nailed yet latest NOAA predictions is we must be wary as the latest Christobal models tracking is to faroe isles and not iceland now.  That is quite a shift in track in such short space of time and similar shift again would evaporate those high pressure forecasts.  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/083415.shtml?gm_track#contents

... or shift the centre of the HP further east, allowing a hotter southerly draw to become established?

[vladthemert]

... or shift the centre of the HP further east, allowing a hotter southerly draw to become established?

 

True a lot variables to play Just got wait where Christobal wants to play ball 

[knocker]

Don't want to dampen the high pressure but the track Cristobal not nailed yet latest NOAA predictions is we must be wary as the latest Christobal models tracking is to faroe isles and not iceland now.  That is quite a shift in track in such short space of time and similar shift again would evaporate those high pressure forecasts.

 

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/083415.shtml?gm_track#contents   

 

The GFS is still going for Iceland and down the road isn't looking at hot air being dragged up from the south although the HP does look a tad prcarious in that time frame.

[stevofunnelcl]

Don't want to dampen the high pressure but the track Cristobal not nailed yet latest NOAA predictions is we must be wary as the latest Christobal models tracking is to faroe isles and not iceland now.  That is quite a shift in track in such short space of time and similar shift again would evaporate those high pressure forecasts.

 

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/083415.shtml?gm_track#contents   

 

Mark Sudduth has a comment on his blog (hurricanetrack.com)

"In fact, interests in the United Kingdom should keep watch over the post-tropical version of Cristobal as it tracks across the Atlantic over the next several days"

It does seem uncertain where ex-Cristobal will end up, but it is forecast to become a very powerful extra-tropical storm, still with hurricane force winds, so best

hope it doesn't make a beeline for the Uk

Edited August 27, 2014 by stevofunnelcl

[knocker]

I suppose with this chart from 48hrs ago one might have been slightly concerned re. GFS picking up the signal.......................

Edited August 27, 2014 by knocker

[MR EXTREMES]

cross model agreement if you ask me on a pretty hot end to summer into autumn.

[Summer Sun]

Cristobal continues to track towards Iceland allowing the UK to turn warmer and more settled

 

 

 

[Polar Maritime]

Some very nice Summery weather on the way, And Showing to persist right out into FI by the GFS  

 

Edited August 27, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Captain Shortwave]

I guess with high pressure building into the UK from this coming Sunday, the question is what happens next

So this sums up the model output for the end of next week. High pressure sitting just east of the UK with a south easterly feed. Very warm in the south under clear skies. Now depending on the strength of the ridge, the upcoming trough will disrupt sending energy over the top and some energy south/south east. Now there is the potential for some pretty potent heat to travel northwards if we develop a strong enough pull on the heat building over Spain. At the same time we will need to watch for a potential retrogression signal as that same low becomes cut off and the ridge in the western Atlantic can build over the top and interact with the Euro ridge. 

So there will be a sticking point around next weekend which will need to be resolved in time. The GEM looks out on its own today with a much larger Atlantic influence, not to mention pulls 850s of 20C+ over the south of the UK for a brief period.

[Frosty.]

why do I keep getting a stupid error message when I try and post charts?

 

Anyhoo, the Gfs 12z op run is what anticyclonic dreams are made of from sunday until the end of the run, and with high pressure becoming centred to the east of the uk, we pull in very warm air from the continent with temperatures soaring into the 80's F. If you wondered where summer has been hiding since july, it's on today's gfs 12z.  I love this run.

[shaky]

What a hot chart from the ecm and only 144 hours away!!probably get 27 or 28 degrees from this chart across england and Wales. .........

[Summer Sun]

Haven't got time to post charts over ATM but its another cracking run from ECM with high pressure building in on Sunday and lasting through-out with it temperatures respond.

[Frosty.]

Tonight's ECM 12z is fab u lus and similar to the gfs tonight, welcome back summer..I  missed you  

[ANYWEATHER]

 Whhooo! Late Summer arriving . Both gfs and ecm  show a rapid rise in pressure later the weekend .But as for the detail of weather, who knows, but I might sneak a little tenting over on the Beautiful River Wye Late next week! If the models verify.....    

Edited August 27, 2014 by ANYWEATHER

[phil nw.]

Latest runs certainly continuing with.the prospect of Summer like weather next week.

The ens over the last few days have been pretty unanimous with modeling a substantial blocking high over the NW Europe after the coming weekend.

The 6-10day NOAA chart

 

We should see some warm and sunny days during this period and it will be no surprise to see temperatures maxing out into the low,even mid 20's C in favoured areas.

 

[knocker]

As next week looks pretty naile down a look a little further for any signals. Looking at the anomalies the signs are, at the moment, that the high pressure will continue with temps above average. The jet is running north of the UK and should facilitate the maintenance of the Azores high.

 

A quick look at the Chinese spectral model re. Cristobal.

Edited August 28, 2014 by knocker

[vladthemert]

Mark Sudduth has a comment on his blog (hurricanetrack.com)

"In fact, interests in the United Kingdom should keep watch over the post-tropical version of Cristobal as it tracks across the Atlantic over the next several days"

It does seem uncertain where ex-Cristobal will end up, but it is forecast to become a very powerful extra-tropical storm, still with hurricane force winds, so best

hope it doesn't make a beeline for the Uk

 

Sorry for late reply and for you to Knocker. Interesting blog and comments

 

Yes mindful very much so interesting that Knocker last post this going be possible low 967 hpa with that forecast model.

 

 Yes Knocker could be GFS models maybe right NOAA has it back dialed at poor old iceland they could do without ex Cristobal hitting with volcano worries.  Talking of this can this storm effect the situation with low pressure.

[Polar Maritime]

The GFS this morning stills shows High Pressure pushing North for Months end, With Temps pushing 23/24c. A cut-off Low is showing further into the run which could give a slack Easterly, Before the Atlantic shows to return in Fl.

 

Edited August 28, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Captain Shortwave]

ECM really going for it this morning, 

Well placed to get the very warm air over Spain to start pushing up towards us, no surprise that the day 7 chart has the +12C isotherm covering most of the UK.

 

All models still look fine and dry well into week 2, only the GEM showing a possible infiltration of more unsettled conditions in the 10 day range as the south west becomes under attack from low pressure to the south west of the UK.

The ECM later frames look a little strange as the ridge simply deflates, looks like too much of a push towards Greenland that will disappear again on future runs, the ECM despite this simply builds a new Azores ridge into the UK anyway.

Edited August 28, 2014 by Captain shortwave