Model Output Discussion 31/07/14 onwards.

[knocker]

Yup looking at the ECM this morning temps into the upper 20s on the cards in the SE/S flow. Perhaps a little cooler by end of the week.

Edited August 28, 2014 by knocker

[Summer Sun]

Welcome back summer from ECM this morning with temperatures in the mid to high 20's for most of England and Wales as the week progresses

 

[Frosty.]

A very pleasing GFS 00z op run with increasingly warm and anticyclonic conditions  from  sunday until the end of next week...summery early autumn on the way guys...as pop larkin would say..PERFIK

[knocker]

Of course the orientation of the HP is quite important and presumably the air within is fairly dry so subsidence shouldn't impinge on forecast max temps.

 

The ECM ens not quite so bullish but mid 20s no probs. Especially in gods country.

Edited August 28, 2014 by knocker

[Azazel]

I'm very excited that summer is going to make a late come-back.

 

I'm pretty crap at reading the charts, so quick question. With all this warm air being sourced from off the continent, can we expect to see any thunderstorms? I ask because i'm still desperate to capture a long-exposure and I was on holiday for the spanish plume.

[mushymanrob]

I'm very excited that summer is going to make a late come-back.

 

I'm pretty crap at reading the charts, so quick question. With all this warm air being sourced from off the continent, can we expect to see any thunderstorms? I ask because i'm still desperate to capture a long-exposure and I was on holiday for the spanish plume.

 

possible, but as yet theres no real signal for a breakdown once the warmth has arrived. ok, several runs have showen one, but atm its inconclusive.hopefully a thundery breakdown is the most likely exit from any hot spell, so id imagine the chances of one after the upcoming spell eases is reasonably high id have thought. in fact some of the best thunderstorms have occured in september, i recall one in sep 73...but thats off topic... lol.

[ANYWEATHER]

Next week looks fairly nice with a quick ridge building. The overall theme from the models is a fairly rapid rise in pressure, quickly followed by a rapid decrease in pressure! Ecm also shows this more picticularly. Met office updates are like Chocolate teapot forecasts ...Make the most folks of some fine days next week folks , its not going to last    

[Polar Maritime]

Yes I agree there Ian. This has always been model'd as a transient affair, And it does look like the Atlantic will be fighting back soon after on tonight's runs. We shall see..

 

Edited August 28, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Weather Boy]

Next week looks fairly nice with a quick ridge building. The overall theme from the models is a fairly rapid rise in pressure, quickly followed by a rapid decrease in pressure! Ecm also shows this more picticularly. Met office updates are like Chocolate teapot forecasts ...Make the most folks of some fine days next week folks , its not going to last    

I assume that those charts haven't changed in the 15 mins odd since you posted them, and to my eye they don't even slightly support what you are saying, Ian. The final chart could arguably see a breakdown if one imagines what could happen beyond that, but that's anyone's guess really.Do please explain if you think I am wrong.You do always seem to be determined to look on the unsettled sign of the charts even when they are resolutely saying the opposite. Gets a bit wearing, especially as you are not alone!

[Captain Shortwave]

Next week looks fairly nice with a quick ridge building. The overall theme from the models is a fairly rapid rise in pressure, quickly followed by a rapid decrease in pressure! Ecm also shows this more picticularly. Met office updates are like Chocolate teapot forecasts ...Make the most folks of some fine days next week folks , its not going to last    

A breakdown at day 8 onwards, probably as likely as a day 8 building pressure chart. As you would say that is FI and unlikely to happen, then surely the same rules apply here.

The GEM and ECM bring low pressure in from the south west with some sort of thundery development, but even with this it looks like an unsettled blip with troughing ongoing in the Atlantic which will make the Azores high more than happy to ridge back across the UK. The metoffice (surely they are the best opinion we have with the upcoming weather?) are suggesting drier and warmer than average conditions away from the far north west, which looks about correct going by the charts.

ECM/GEM day 8 and 10 charts

[knocker]

Well the ECM ops is going a going for a short? breakdown next weekend with a slight change of temp. Neither the NOAA or GFS anomalies hint at anything other than a blip.

Edited August 28, 2014 by knocker

[Frosty.]

That nice bald headed chap on tv weather said summer is coming back next week with a much warmer tropical airmass..which is exactly what the models are showing, whether it breaks down in the 2nd week of september is unclear but we are guaranteed at least a week of the best weather since july..just enjoy it while it lasts, too often on here there is more worry about fine spells breaking down so people then don't enjoy the fine weather when it's here. I will make the most of it :-)

[Polar Maritime]

Exactly Cap't, Apparently FI is always FI.  Apart from this transient affair...  Yes Frosty, Very unclear signals atm further in the out-put, With some big changes over the last 2/3 run's.

 

I've deleted a few off topic post, Please be polite and keep on topic.

 

Many Thanks, PM

Edited August 28, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[ANYWEATHER]

I assume that those charts haven't changed in the 15 mins odd since you posted them, and to my eye they don't even slightly support what you are saying, Ian. The final chart could arguably see a breakdown if one imagines what could happen beyond that, but that's anyone's guess really.

Do please explain if you think I am wrong.

You do always seem to be determined to look on the unsettled sign of the charts even when they are resolutely saying the opposite. Gets a bit wearing, especially as you are not alone!

Yes indeed! The uk is always on the parmieter of of the Atlantic and the continent . Im not determined at all with my posts with regarding the above but its obvious that we are in the decline to Autumn...  Even Micheal Fish said it could well be a transient affair in is video forecast...

Edited August 28, 2014 by ANYWEATHER

[Captain Shortwave]

Well the ECM ens point to exactly what the metoffice forecast shows

Jet still remaining north of the UK for the most part with higher than average heights, along with warmer than average temperatures. The area at highest risk of rain is the north west.

[Milhouse]

Yes indeed! The uk is always on the parmieter of of the Atlantic and the continent . Im not determined at all with my posts with regarding the above but its obvious that we are in the decline to Autumn...  Even Micheal Fish said it could well be a transient affair in is video forecast...

 

We are entering Autumn, yes. But the weather does not have to agree all the time, just as March 2013 showed when winter carried on and on. If you study the ECM more closely it looks like a band of rain moving northwards at day 9 and then more settled conditions moving back up from the south.

[ANYWEATHER]

Lets see how the charts verify....out at T+168 gfs and ecm, lets see the change tomorrow?

[knocker]

Indeed a blip as the anomalies are still indicating HP over the UK with a weak jet to the north as indicated. Temps slightly above average. Apologies but this post is only really repeating what has already been said. Well nearly.

Edited August 28, 2014 by knocker

[damianslaw]

Models all showing high pressure building over the country and anchoring to our east by this time next week - a warm settled outlook.

 

Quite standard fayre for the time of year, I've just taken a look at the first week of September since 2004, and apart from 2008 and 2009, all years have seen high pressure near or over the country dominating affairs. Indeed early September on average is more likely to be very settled - often than any other time of year..

[IDO]

As others have said it is not a smooth transition to non-stop HP. Over the last 2-3 days GFS has moved away from the Azores-Scandic direct link. Now indications are that the Azores breaks through the Atlantic trough and builds over the cut off low it creates before it tracks NE again:

 

  

 

This is then repeated in FI. The main jet remains to our north but we have the cut off low (upper trough) giving us potential for rain with a very active spell of rain kept to the jet's track:

 

 

 

GEM spotted this before GFS but have always modelled the cut off low as more of a feature. That continues today:

 

 

 

So we have from T48 for at least 4 days a ridge of HP over the UK with the SE hanging on for the longest (GEM). GFS adds another 36-48 hours. Then we have a transient upper trough next weekend before heights build in again over the trough so the better weather this time further north. The D10 signal from the GEFS is indeed along the lines of the hi-res op and control but lots of variety and at least 33% going for different outcomes: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240.

 

UKMO similar output but the Atlantic trough is further west: 

 

Last night's ECM looked typical output with the HP totally over done after T168 and that distorted the upstream pattern. The mean was much closer to recent GFS output:

 

 Hopefully this morning's run will move in that direction.

 

So above average temps for the south and relatively dry with good sunshine for the foreseeable with only transient more unsettled passages.

[Polar Maritime]

The GFS is showing mostly settled/warm conditions through-out the run this morning. With no Atlantic breakthrough showing just yet. Look how North the Jet Stream is..

 

[Frosty.]

The GFS is showing mostly settled/warm conditions through-out the run this morning. With no Atlantic breakthrough showing just yet. Look how North the Jet Stream is..

 

Yes PM..The BEST weather since back in july is just around the corner. The track of the latest ex hurricane will draw progressively warmer air northeastwards in it's wake, combined with high pressure, this spell will feel like high summer..ENJOY

[Polar Maritime]

ECMWF very similar in the later out-put,  With the Jet way North.

 

[Polar Maritime]

...so when fi shows pressure building, its spotting a trend...when fi shows an unsettled breakdown you ignore it because its fi.....

 

No. It's the Model Output Discussion. I don't ignore the out-put's or have any bias or hopes. As many will know following my posts all year round. I post what the Models are showing.

 

Can we please put an end to this personal ongoing tit for tat crap about FI. It's tiring/repetitive and spoiling the thread constantly.

 

Many Thanks, PM

Edited August 29, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[knocker]

The ECM this morning shows an interesting transition of the HP centres from one to the east bringing the high temps at the beginning of the week to one centred to the SW with an accompanying drop in temps for the weekend. It is but a brief interlude.