Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere Autumn/Winter 2014

[feno13]

Yesterday vs today.  Plenty of new snow around, really getting going now!

 

 

 

Sea ice appears to have start expanding again as well

Is this a game of spot the difference ???

Didn't mean to be rude .

[Ice Day]

Is this a game of spot the difference ???

Didn't mean to be rude .

 

To be more accurate, you could call it 'spot the pixel'!

[Yarmy]

Is this a game of spot the difference ???Didn't mean to be rude .

Absolutely: we do it every year. :-) Every pixel counts.

It's probably pointless (in terms of what eventually arrives here), but there is at least some science to suggest it's worth watching, especially during Oct/Nov.

[Ice Day]

'Every pixel counts.'

 

Sounds like an idea for a new game show!!!

[bryan629]

Looking like ther may be a few more pixels appearing in the comming days for our perusal over scandinavia and countries a little further east as shown on the GFS.

 

 

T+ 30 

 

T+ 96 

 

T+ 120  

 

 couple of lows over these areas dropping pixels 

 

HIgh pressure over central siberia being a party pooper, but slowly drifting east, may allow for some trough disruption in that region later on. 

 

 

[Interitus]

nice and as its below freezing all the time now that's not going anywhere soon.

 

Mostly gone from lower elevations now 

[Reefseeker]

Couldn't resist a peek at Rovaniemi; while it's looking rather drizzly and damp there, Lordi Square at least treated me to 1 degree showing on its digital temperature thingy: http://international.rovaniemi.fi/en/webcam

[LincolnSnowstorm]

Mostly gone from lower elevations now 

Damm it!   they are having a mini heat wave

I'll be giving up on old faithful if Fridays upper level reinforcements don't turn up   http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Longyearbyen/long.html

http://longyearbyen.livecam360.net/

[Gavin Hannah]

Yesterday vs today.  Plenty of new snow around, really getting going now!

 

 

 

Sea ice appears to have start expanding again as well

 

 

We are still in the 'In between period' where snow gains are very susceptable to snow loss the next day. But it does look good seeing some of that white stuff in Scandi.

[cyclonic happiness]

The ice is definitely expanding again now ....good stuff! :-) 

[LincolnSnowstorm]

Couldn't resist a peek at Rovaniemi; while it's looking rather drizzly and damp there, Lordi Square at least treated me to 1 degree showing on its digital temperature thingy: http://international.rovaniemi.fi/en/webcam

 

Ah yes Reefseeker very festive looking!

 

 

 

 

Also maybe worth a peek in the morning at this slide show.

http://www.webcam-4insiders.com/de/Wetter-Kleine%20Scheidegg/1026-Kleine%20Scheidegg-Wetter.php

Edited September 24, 2014 by LincolnSnowstorm

[LincolnSnowstorm]

We are still in the 'In between period' where snow gains are very susceptable to snow loss the next day. But it does look good seeing some of that white stuff in Scandi.

I'm thinking maybe it gone beyond that now for Eastern Siberia ..I maybe wrong  http://www.yr.no/place/Russia/Sakha/Mirnyy/long.html

[cheese]

Pajala

 

[summer blizzard]

Just FYI but looking at the most extreme and least extreme setups for October in terms of gaining snow, what we want to see is a Pacific Trough anomaly (with higher pressure closer to Bering above it) as opposed to a Pacific High.

 

Current anomolies although they have high pressure over Western Russia do look good in the Pacific which i imagine due to the trough would indicate the jet stream leaving Asia further south adding to our sub-60N totals which is what the index is based on.

[SMU]

looking at the patterns developing across the far reaches of the GFS ( with some coherent condistency ) there appears to be a developing signal for a strong + PNA pattern which will be sending warmer air up the western side of the US at the same time displacing the early season cold town towards the Southern/ Eastern part of canada possibly sliding into the NE US.

Expect to see snow moving into these areas but this positive being offset by the decrease in snow across alaska.

In terms of the rest, while northern norway & finland look pretty on the cams the continuing Scandi positive anomaly doesnt allow for the snowcover to be sustainsble ( unless your up past svalbard ) & certainly zero autumn chill in western & northern Europe.

In terms of russia it looks all east at the moment on the eastern flank of the scandi high.

No great concerns at the moment - a while to wait for any real movement west -

A revisit on Oct 10 to see where we are.....

S

[feb1991blizzard]

looking at the patterns developing across the far reaches of the GFS ( with some coherent condistency ) there appears to be a developing signal for a strong + PNA pattern which will be sending warmer air up the western side of the US at the same time displacing the early season cold town towards the Southern/ Eastern part of canada possibly sliding into the NE US.

Expect to see snow moving into these areas but this positive being offset by the decrease in snow across alaska.

In terms of the rest, while northern norway & finland look pretty on the cams the continuing Scandi positive anomaly doesnt allow for the snowcover to be sustainsble ( unless your up past svalbard ) & certainly zero autumn chill in western & northern Europe.

In terms of russia it looks all east at the moment on the eastern flank of the scandi high.

No great concerns at the moment - a while to wait for any real movement west -

A revisit on Oct 10 to see where we are.....

S

 

 

 

You say NO great concerns, are there any concerns at all though Steve, from what others have told me we shouldn't be hoping for westward advancement of snow cover until October and its the sudden increase in October that's important.

Edited September 25, 2014 by feb1991blizzard

[SMU]

Thats right no concerns as the main start point develops from week 2 of october when we see enough of a cold pool to support snow all the way back to Western europe.

No worries at all, enjoy the UK weather for the next week or so.

[bryan629]

Some pretty big gains today 

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Some pretty big gains today 

 

prvsnow_asiaeuropewed.gifcursnow_asiaeuropethur.gif

 

Yep, impressive positive anomalies now.

 

Sep 25th 2014

 

 

Last year saw a similar build up of snow over Siberia, that eventually led to September having the 6th largest snow cover extent on record.

 

Sep 25th 2013

Edited September 26, 2014 by BornFromTheVoid

[bryan629]

Just a little look into projected snowfall to our east in the very near future....Quite a lot of the white stuff western russia and eastern russia. 

 

T+150  

 

 

Then deep into FI 

 

 

T+250 

 

[Yarmy]

Yep, impressive positive anomalies now.

 

Sep 25th 2014

 

 

Last year saw a similar build up of snow over Siberia, that eventually led to September having the 6th largest snow cover extent on record.

 

Sep 25th 2013

 

It's no coincidence that the positive anomalies are right next to where the ice has retreated most.

[feb1991blizzard]

No good though is it?, we need the gains in October, I don't pretend to understand the science behind it but that's the general conscienctious     

[summer blizzard]

No good though is it?, we need the gains in October, I don't pretend to understand the science behind it but that's the general conscienctious

The correlation is actually just as high for the 4 weeks beginning Sep 23rd. Its 60N and south we need to look at anyway.

[LincolnSnowstorm]

Just a little look into projected snowfall to our east in the very near future....Quite a lot of the white stuff western russia and eastern russia. 

 

T+150  gfsnh-2-150.png

 

 

Then deep into FI 

 

 

T+250 gfsnh-2-252.png

Interesting stuff, with the cold pools starting to show up on weather charts and now your projected snowfall chart.

I'm thinking (searching for   )  maybe  the weather gods will give us a picture similar to or better than  2010 over the next few weeks with Siberia , Russia  and Scandinavia getting a quality amounts of snow to help the snow advance index along. 

 

Here's the benchmark

[stewfox]

No good though is it?, we need the gains in October, I don't pretend to understand the science behind it but that's the general conscienctious     

 

Where ??