Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere Autumn/Winter 2014

[bryan629]

From the comments i have been reading regarding the SAI on here ....I`m understanding the we do not want to see snow advancing westerly just yet , until the last couple of weeks of October. 

Well folks so far as the update shows... lots of snow cover still in eastern Russia and not much progress westerly... a good thing i suppose... however there is a low/trough about to drop into mid Russia that will probably increase snow cover in a more westerly direction

Saturday                                                                 Sunday

 

If you squint really, really hard you might just spot the pixel on the Cairngorms too , failing that, go get your binoculars 

 

 

[LincolnSnowstorm]

From the comments i have been reading regarding the SAI on here ....I`m understanding the we do not want to see snow advancing westerly just yet , until the last couple of weeks of October. 

Well folks so far as the update shows... lots of snow cover still in eastern Russia and not much progress westerly... a good thing i suppose... however there is a low/trough about to drop into mid Russia that will probably increase snow cover in a more westerly direction

Saturday                                                                 Sunday

cursnow_asiaeuropesat.gifcursnow_asiaeuropesun.gif

 

If you squint really, really hard you might just spot the pixel on the Cairngorms too , failing that, go get your binoculars 

Ok put your spec hunting binoculars down for a minute and enjoy what happens when the 'shnow..its'  the fan! Would love too know what going to pull the Ukrainian bendy bus out. at 11.40 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yK2Deik2oQA

Edited October 6, 2014 by LincolnSnowstorm

[Turnedoutniceagain]

From the comments i have been reading regarding the SAI on here ....I`m understanding the we do not want to see snow advancing westerly just yet , until the last couple of weeks of October. 

Well folks so far as the update shows... lots of snow cover still in eastern Russia and not much progress westerly... a good thing i suppose... however there is a low/trough about to drop into mid Russia that will probably increase snow cover in a more westerly direction

Saturday                                                                 Sunday

cursnow_asiaeuropesat.gifcursnow_asiaeuropesun.gif

 

If you squint really, really hard you might just spot the pixel on the Cairngorms too , failing that, go get your binoculars 

 

Nice surprise. I've deliberately not looked for about 3 weeks !!

[jules216]

Appreciable snow forecast for central and western siberia in the next 6 days or so, it looks like a little high preasure between iceland and east greenland can stay and along with euro high can help cold air slip down western russia and northern scandinavia,although I would like to see North Eastern Europe and Western Russia getting colder and help advancment of snowcover westwards, keeping an eye on polar vortex hopefully it can closer to Euroasia and not Greenland/East Canada and -AO

 

 

[jules216]

Longer -AO and hopefully more artic air slipping south and help the snow cover

[jules216]

Perm - 600kg east of Moscow forecast for next 2 weeks: http://www.gismeteo.ru/city/weekly/4476/

Archangelsk - 500kg east of Central Finland: http://www.ilmeteo.it/meteo-europa/Archangelsk

[LincolnSnowstorm]

Perm - 600kg east of Moscow forecast for next 2 weeks: http://www.gismeteo.ru/city/weekly/4476/

Archangelsk - 500kg east of Central Finland: http://www.ilmeteo.it/meteo-europa/Archangelsk

heavy snow

[throwoff]

Don't forget the ice, we want to see that grow as well.

 

If you compare 2013

 

 

To now it looks much worse, of course as we have said it is the back end of this month that makes the bigger difference (if you subscribe to the theory) 

 

 

Then compare to 2010 where we all know what happened We are much closer to that right now than what we saw as amazing last year and turned out to be terrible. Of course this is all completely open to change but we need to remember we are looking long term, not day to day.

 

 

I do worry about that ice though, we need to see that picking up.

Edited October 6, 2014 by throwoff

[LincolnSnowstorm]

Don't forget the ice, we want to see that grow as well.

 

I do worry about that ice though, we need to see that picking up.

Chill throwoff its still early days, just watch the chart get steeper over the next few weeks it always does http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/Sea_Ice_Extent_v2_L.png

[EML Network]

someone laid a big snow egg in Russia 

 

Regarding the ICE, I have noticed that there is a small but significant enough to worth mentioning correlation between the Westward extent of Ice and cooler Winters.

 

Example is last winter, look how far East the Ice extent is compared to 2010.
 

In 2013 it was as if the concentration of new Ice formation was on the Eastern Edge of the Ice mass, closer to Canada, where as in 2010 and indeed this Autumn, it would appear that the new ice build up is concentrated on the Western edge moving toward Scandinavia. 

There could be nothing in it, but if someone has the time maybe it's worth checking the archives to see if there is any sort of correlation between new Ice growth in October being concentrated in the Western Edge and cooler winters in the UK, or New Ice growth being concentrated on the Eastern Edge and colder Winters in Canada and the States ?

 

I'm probably using the wrong terminology and struggling to explain what I mean, but I hope someone there can see what I'm trying to say 

Edited October 7, 2014 by EML Network

[BornFromTheVoid]

Just in case any of ye are interested, I post an Arctic sea ice update each week in the Arctic Sea Ice Data and Stats thread, here's the latest one https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/74411-arctic-ice-data-and-stats/?p=3050200.

 

It's just data and stats, as the thread title states, so none of the usual global warming bickering!

[richwatson00]

A colleague of mine has been working in the Kara Sea and areas to the east this summer and by all accounts sea temps are approx 3c below average and the local authorities are planning an early ice incursion closing ports this month, instead of early November.

[Interitus]

A colleague of mine has been working in the Kara Sea and areas to the east this summer and by all accounts sea temps are approx 3c below average and the local authorities are planning an early ice incursion closing ports this month, instead of early November.

 

This is not the case at all, temperatures and anomalies can be viewed here - http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/satellite/index.uk.php

Ice levels are still very low and over large areas water temperatures 3c below average wouldn't be measured because it would be ice!

Recent ice conditions and forecasts from the Russian Northern Sea Route Administration can be found here - http://www.nsra.ru/en/icecharts/

The forecast for the Laptev Sea to the east of the Kara is particularly enlightening -

Due to the lack of sea ices in the water area of the Laptev Sea the review of charts of the actual and predictive ice condition is temporarily suspended.

 

No hint of early closure in the longer term outlook here - http://www.nsra.ru/en/dolgosrochnie_prognozi/

Currently there are 75 vessels being monitored near or on the NSR - http://www.nsra.ru/en/grafik_dvijeniya_po_smp/

[Ice Day]

Explosion of new snow over Russia, Canada and Alaska. Lovely stuff!

 

Yesterday vs today

 

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

 

Recent ice conditions and forecasts from the Russian Northern Sea Route Administration can be found here - http://www.nsra.ru/en/icecharts/

Interitus

In fairness to Richwatson if you look at your icemap, you can see that an ice bridge has now formed via the islands, between the Kara and North East Laptev.

This does look to me as though ships will have difficulty in getting past it very shortly.

I think this will be closed off completely before the date quoted of November as the usual date.

Very cold air is currently moving into the area and the ice seems to be rapidly growing in that area

Agree that East Siberian sea areas look to be icefreee for a while yet.

MIA

Edited October 7, 2014 by Midlands Ice Age

[John Badrick]

My parents live in a place called Atarau, Kazakhstan. They send me weather updates for their location everyday. My dad walks across a big river everyday to get to work.in the summer he uses the bridge, in the winter he just walks on the ice. Last year the river froze quite late in the year and they didn't have much snow. I remember he was sending me updates during the end if October and it was still very warm, unusually warm for the time of year.I have just received an update from him saying it's starting to get cold-1 this morning. I know Kazakhstan is a little further south than we want the snow advance, but 2010/11 they had am amazing winter(pic was taken in a town garden 2010) so I will update when their river freezes and the snow hits.

[BornFromTheVoid]

It would appear that September had the 3rd largest snow cover extent on record for the northern hemisphere

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/table_rankings.php?ui_set=1

 

 

Quite a turn around in the last 2 years.

[carinthian]

It would appear that September had the 3rd largest snow cover extent on record for the northern hemisphere

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/table_rankings.php?ui_set=1

 

 

Quite a turn around in the last 2 years.

Interesting contrasts. Lets hope its a prelude to the previous biggest snow cover in September 78 and look what winter followed that. A classic 78/79.

[SMU]

keep an eye on this thread over the next week- we should see a very strong move west & south out of Russia!

[The Bevmeister]

It would appear that September had the 3rd largest snow cover extent on record for the northern hemisphere

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/table_rankings.php?ui_set=1

 

 

Quite a turn around in the last 2 years.

And last September was the 7th largest cover and look what that brought us!!!  LOL!!! 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

And the largest in 45 years of data in North America

 

BFTP

[LincolnSnowstorm]

^{Ok its looking good out there. Some daylight left in Svalbard http://www.lookr.com/lookout/1350084604-Sveagruva#action-play-day}

^{A bit of snow due in Lapland and the Northern Hemisphere  more than keeping up with 2010 benchmark}

 

 ^{http://www.yr.no/place/Finland/Laponia/Rovaniemi/ http://international.rovaniemi.fi/en/webcam}

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

 

 

 

 

^{Lincolnsnowstorm.....}

^{What has happened to Alaska this season, perhaps most Americans are going there rather than Florida (LOL)}

^{Also - it is easy to see that the shipping route around Russia is now close.}

^MIA

Edited October 10, 2014 by Midlands Ice Age

[LincolnSnowstorm]

Lincolnsnowstorm.....

What has happened to Alaska this season, perhaps most Americans are going there rather than Florida (LOL)

Also - it is easy to see that the shipping route around Russia is now close.

 

Looks normal to me others may have more detail.

[Midlands Ice Age]

Whoops, sorry LS you are quite right.

I was looking at the big red blob at the end of Siberia, and assumed it was Alaska after all the press reports and bloggs on here about it being very warm at the moment.

I hadn't seen any reports that it had cooled back to normal with average amounts of snow around.

My only excuse was I didn't have my reading glasses on at the time and I was sitting in the lovely sunshine we are experiencing today.

Sorry for the blooper

MIA