Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere Autumn/Winter 2014

[jules216]

this is very interesting read about snow cover this yearhttp://m.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/10/13/fall-snow-bonanza-in-north-america-and-siberia-may-portend-brutal-winter/

[summer blizzard]

Most amount of snow in the SAI area since 1999. http://www.weerwoord.be/uploads/121020141327300.png

 

Looks like we need a gain of 6000 or more to be in with a shot.

 

We are at 3000 now, worst case for the full month would be 2,000.

 

..

 

Looking good actually.

[Gael_Force]

this is very interesting read about snow cover this yearhttp://m.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/10/13/fall-snow-bonanza-in-north-america-and-siberia-may-portend-brutal-winter/

 

Thanks for that. The quote from Cohen puts it into perspective.

 

 

“[siberian] snow cover has really picked up, it has rapidly advanced over the last week,†Cohen said.  â€œIt’s ahead of anything since at least [the year] 2000.â€

He added: “Normally on this date there is about 1 million squared kilometers of snow cover south of 60°N across Eurasia and instead this year there is 5 million.â€

[throwoff]

Got myself all excited reading that!

 

The fact he mentions Western Europe as well as the USA means he is anticipating quite the snowfall level this year. 

 

I realise we are technically a little outside western Europe, being surrounded as be are by the sea but if France etc is whited out we usually suffer just as much!

 

Bring on the Beast...!

[gottolovethisweather]

As everything is inter-connected, I echo Phil's thoughts from a couple of days ago, not a great outlook but let's not look too deeply into the forecast and take each day as it comes, a damn good snow and ice situation right now but with one eye on the future.

 

My eyes are in fact drawn to the Atlantic synoptic pattern and just how much the Jet might want to ramp up in these early days of mid to late October. My thoughts from the Atlantic Hurricane thread are copied below.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81570-hurricane-gonzalo/?p=3054224

 

Carinithian's and Nick L's updates elsewhere in particular, provide us with some good insight into the longer-term pattern right now and its surrounding those updates, on which my concerns for the second half of October are based.

 

Still all to play for and I'm sure we won't know the true Winter prospects until much later on. Should the NH Snow and Ice picture carry on in the state it is now, then it will be one fair sized part of the NH climatic puzzle completed in favour of something far-removed from the dreadful 2013/14 Winter for us coldies.

 

The clock is ticking and the tension is building.

Edited October 14, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[snowking]

GTLTW - sorry I'm on my phone so unable to post charts right now, but looking at the 850 profiles across the suites alone for the next 10 days, I do not have too many concerns, especially when combined with a signal for largely cyclonic conditions across Russia in particular. But I certainly Echo your caution at this early stage as far as any October index goes.

One useful link I've come across and thought I would share:

http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/HTML/snow_extent_plots.html

Looking at the Eurasian plot in particular the gradient of the line for 2014 certainly shows the current rapid rate of expansion.

SK

[summer blizzard]

Not an ideal pattern, especially for eastern Asia south of 60N but should deliver steady gains in southern Russia.

 

As i said yesterday, our gain aim should be around 6000.

 

[gottolovethisweather]

GTLTW - sorry I'm on my phone so unable to post charts right now, but looking at the 850 profiles across the suites alone for the next 10 days, I do not have too many concerns, especially when combined with a signal for largely cyclonic conditions across Russia in particular. But I certainly Echo your caution at this early stage as far as any October index goes.

One useful link I've come across and thought I would share:

http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/HTML/snow_extent_plots.html

Looking at the Eurasian plot in particular the gradient of the line for 2014 certainly shows the current rapid rate of expansion.

SK

 

Cheers SK. I always like to hear your views and I agree that things might not be as bleak a picture as originally painted having studied yesterday afternoons suite of outputs. Plenty of caution to adhere to yet though given that the Atlantic is awakening. Hopefully the Russian synoptic situation sticks to the plan and eventually a colder plunge may well take over from the East. 

[gottolovethisweather]

Not an ideal pattern, especially for eastern Asia south of 60N but should deliver steady gains in southern Russia.

 

As i said yesterday, our gain aim should be around 6000.

 

 

Yep, I notice that pesky Azores High is drifting nearer towards us. I alluded to it yesterday but given the time of year, it would be of more concern much later on. Lots of different factors to take account of and at least the indexes and PV state are two things firmly on our side right now.

[throwoff]

Filled in a bit but some melt today

 

 

Edited October 15, 2014 by throwoff

[summer blizzard]

Yep, I notice that pesky Azores High is drifting nearer towards us. I alluded to it yesterday but given the time of year, it would be of more concern much later on. Lots of different factors to take account of and at least the indexes and PV state are two things firmly on our side right now.

 

The westward extent is not something i'm too worried about so the Azores High is not a concern. It's the mean high south of Bearing which will limit us in Mongolia ect..

[LincolnSnowstorm]

Filled in a bit but some melt today

Its still looking good ,hoping that we can say in a couple of weeks that the SAI part of the winter puzzle has given  its best shot at getting us a winter different to last year.

[LincolnSnowstorm]

Here is some webcam pics to wet the appetite   

 Artic North low sun at lunch time.

 

  Norway North

 

  Norway middle 62°05'38.9"N 8°07'46.7"E

 

Norway South Rain or snow!

 

 

[LincolnSnowstorm]

Most amount of snow in the SAI area since 1999. http://www.weerwoord.be/uploads/121020141327300.png

Would be great to have a few more updates...

[gottolovethisweather]

The westward extent is not something i'm too worried about so the Azores High is not a concern. It's the mean high south of Bearing which will limit us in Mongolia ect..

 

Ah I see, SB. There are a great many different things to watch that's for sure. I often struggle to locate where the regions of the world are on those charts, but I take it you're referring to where there are forecasted Greens and Yellows and a +91 showing. Are you suggesting we would be better off with a Low Pressure/Trough feature in that part of the world?

 

Still learning here.

Edited October 15, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[summer blizzard]

Ah I see, SB. There are a great many different things to watch that's for sure. I often struggle to locate where the regions of the world are on those charts, but I take it you're referring to where there are forecasted Greens and Yellows and a +91 showing. Are you suggesting we would be better off with a Low Pressure/Trough feature in that part of the world?

 

Still learning here.

 

Yes, the Alaskan Trough needs to be further west ideally. 

 

In simple terms you want the jet to be leaving Asia as far south as possible whereas that mean high would indicate it will leaving relatively north.

Edited October 15, 2014 by summer blizzard

[karyo]

Would be great to have a few more updates...

That looks great! My concern is if snow cover increases until about the last week of October and then we get loses due to southerly winds.

I've noticed that the models are keen to introduce a southerly in western Asia with warmer uppers towards the end of the run.

[Reefseeker]

Here is some webcam pics to wet the appetite   

02-gruvedalen.jpg Artic North low sun at lunch time.

 

kamera.jpgkamera (3).jpg  Norway North

kamera (2).jpgcapture1.jpg

 

bilde1s.jpgbilde7s.jpg  Norway middle 62°05'38.9"N 8°07'46.7"E

 

image.jpg Norway South Rain or snow!

It's amazing how quickly Lonyearbyen is losing sunlight this week; by 2pm it's clearly getting dusky, not sure how much longer this will be giving me my daily snowfix. I'll have to move onto some of your other spots which should be getting snowed-up by thenL(

[radiohead]

Would be great to have a few more updates...

 

+1

Would like to know where we can see the latest graph.

[J10]

http://www.webcamsinnorway.com/webcams.php

 

http://honningsvag.livecam360.com/

 

First snow of the winter in the North Cape.

Edited October 15, 2014 by J10

[Snow Dragon]

It's amazing how quickly Lonyearbyen is losing sunlight this week; by 2pm it's clearly getting dusky, not sure how much longer this will be giving me my daily snowfix. I'll have to move onto some of your other spots which should be getting snowed-up by thenL(

 

Haha my sentiments exactly!

[LincolnSnowstorm]

It's amazing how quickly Lonyearbyen is losing sunlight this week; by 2pm it's clearly getting dusky, not sure how much longer this will be giving me my daily snowfix. I'll have to move onto some of your other spots which should be getting snowed-up by thenL(

L( no need to be down http://longyearbyen.kystnor.no?t=2014-10-14+07-30-00 Only ten days left for the sunhttp://www.timeanddate.com/sun/norway/longyearbyen but they have  there are  good flood lights for snowy lamp post watching http://www.yr.no/sted/Norge/Svalbard/Longyearbyen/time_for_time.html

 

Just waiting now (hopefully not to long)   for the great webcam pics that are bound  to happen in Iceland, Sweden, Finland , The Alps etc etc

[LincolnSnowstorm]

http://www.webcamsinnorway.com/webcams.php

 

http://honningsvag.livecam360.com/

 

First snow of the winter in the North Cape.

Lovely 360 Cam and Road cam link J10  , looks like a real special placehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Honningsv%C3%A5g  would be good for the snow fix  if the forecast improves http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Finnmark/Nordkapp/HonningsvÃ¥g/long.html

[LincolnSnowstorm]

That looks great! My concern is if snow cover increases until about the last week of October and then we get loses due to southerly winds.

I've noticed that the models are keen to introduce a southerly in western Asia with warmer uppers towards the end of the run.

Yes that would be bad, it happened in 2010 and nearly blew our chances... October 31 and Nov 9th

 

Must be more factors involved though, than a huge negative amount of  southerly snow cover.

[LincolnSnowstorm]

 

South of our usual concerns but the  biggest change on the noaa asiaeurope chart  is China getting a large  dump of snow, also causing problems in Nepal  http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-29625605