Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere Autumn/Winter 2014

[neige57]

A winter like last year is probably as likely as a 1962/63 repeat surely! I think that will finish me off if we do have another snowless winter here !!

 

Please, post your message of this kind elsewhere in this part of the topic. Tastes, the desires of each is not on this topic, it pollutes more than anything else, thank you

[Gael_Force]

Thanks, Got. I've read your suggested links already but I'm still none the wiser about which is the actual driver. Not to worry, it doesn't take much to confuse me when reading the scientific papers.

 

Anyways, the WSI blog have a piece about the excellent snow cover this year.

 

http://www.wsi.com/blog/energy/europe-eurasian-snow-cover/

[throwoff]

It is building well still which is putting a smile on my face. 

 

Surprising how much notice a lot of the weather forecasters are paying to the 'unprecedented' build up.

[Gael_Force]

Can anyone help me with the theory behind the snow cover extent. Is it the snow which will create the right pressure pattern or is it the favourable pressure pattern which produces the snow? The important aspect seems to be that it happens in October - this then raises the question of whether it matters if, come November, there are subsequent reductions due to a change in synoptics?

 

I found this last night in another thread - an answer in the conclusions perhaps?

 

 

ABSTRACT

Investigation into atmospheric processes preceding winters of different Arctic Oscillation index (AOI) polarity, based on empirical data analysis, has revealed highly statistically significant relationships between the wintertime AOI and preceding October circulation. The wintertime AOI strongly covaries with an October circulation anomaly barotropically spanning the depth of the troposphere over the Taymyr Peninsula (Taymyr circulation anomaly, TCA), with the anticyclonic (cyclonic) TCA preceding winters of the negative (positive) AOI polarity. The October TCA affects the wintertime AOI polarity mainly via its impact on air temperature over the Arctic and North-East Asia. Anticyclonic (cyclonic) TCA leads to the positive (negative) temperature anomaly over the Arctic and a corresponding increase (decrease) of geopotential heights, and to the negative (positive) temperature anomaly over North-East Asia and so to enhancement (weakening) of the climatological trough associated with long planetary waves and corresponding enhancement (weakening) of the upward wave activity flux. To characterize temporal variability of the TCA, a Taymyr circulation index (TCI) is suggested. Correlation coefficient between the (inverted) wintertime AOI and the October TCI is 0.58 for the 1958–2012 period, with correlations being stable in time. The anticyclonic (cyclonic) TCA is associated with smaller (larger) number of cyclones coming to the region of the eastern Barents Sea–Taymyr Peninsula–Laptev Sea. Statistical relationships between the October TCA, wintertime AOI and September/October sea surface temperature in the northern Barents Sea are shown.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81637-eddy-heat-flux-over-eurasian-snow-cover/?p=3058070

 

Can anyone help the poster with his/her query, please.

[jules216]

snowing in central europe above 1000mts, jasna-slovakia

[Interitus]

First snows appearing now for many Alpine locations on the tail end of our stormy weather - http://www.panomax.at/index_en.html

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Just some musings re why the Jetstream is behaving as it has done since 07/08 when perturbation cycle changed and signs of possible deep solar minima approaching. Low ice in arctic has been bandied around as to why the Jetstream has generally shifted south, why potentially increased snowfall has occurred etc etc and more northern blocking. Well the Jetstream in the southern hemisphere has been behaving in similar fashion...and Antarctica is experiencing years of amassing ice extent breaking records......so is it low ice?

BFTP

[cyclonic happiness]

What's happened to the NOAA site? it's gone offline or something? I've not been able to get it for the past 2 days>??

 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/

[Nanna-Ree]

What's happened to the NOAA site? it's gone offline or something? I've not been able to get it for the past 2 days>??

 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/

iv had the same problem...... glad its not just me

[blizzard81]

What's happened to the NOAA site? it's gone offline or something? I've not been able to get it for the past 2 days>??

 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/

They don't like what they see with regards to snow extent - not good for the global warming mongerers

[chionomaniac]

There is a problem with the hardware at Natice that has caused the problem with all the snow and ice recording sites.

[Ice Day]

..... Well the Jetstream in the southern hemisphere has been behaving in similar fashion...and Antarctica is experiencing years of amassing ice extent breaking records......so is it low ice?

BFTP

 

I know this is the Northern Hemisphere section, but following on from the above, this is the latest on the Southern Hemisphere ice extent.  Pretty incredible stuff, surprisingly ignored by the general media!!!! 

 

 

[Northernlights]

Just some musings re why the Jetstream is behaving as it has done since 07/08 when perturbation cycle changed and signs of possible deep solar minima approaching. Low ice in arctic has been bandied around as to why the Jetstream has generally shifted south, why potentially increased snowfall has occurred etc etc and more northern blocking. Well the Jetstream in the southern hemisphere has been behaving in similar fashion...and Antarctica is experiencing years of amassing ice extent breaking records......so is it low ice?

BFTP

Went  to listen to this lady in Edinburgh at a a Royal Met Society lecture https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TSsTZJ8Ff4Q   this time last year .I think you will find a lot of common ground with her. I made the connection between the lack of Northern Lights(Aurora) after 2007 and the trend to much colder winters and told Aurora Storm at the time and she accompanied me to this lecture where we learnt that the effects of this lowered activity will be most noticeable in the mid lattitudes where of course we live.

[BornFromTheVoid]

The warming of the Arctic (not just the sea ice loss) is thought to cause the northern hemisphere jet stream rossby waves to become more elongated in the north/south direction and slower moving. This means more warm air going north, more cold air going south, and weather pattern lasting longer and getting "stuck", especially in Autumn and Winter when the Arctic has been warming fastest.

 

A few studies that support this theory

 

Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes

 

Anomalous planetary waves and synchronization of mid-latitudinal temperature extremes

 

Quasiresonant amplification of planetary waves and recent Northern Hemisphere weather extremes

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

BFTV....why is SH polar jet behaving similar?

BFTP

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

BFTV.....why do the JS behave similar....ice and temp are so different?

BFTP

Edited October 22, 2014 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[keithlucky]

The MetO have told councils across the country to prepare for a very cold winter this year. Winter preparedness at its finest LOL

[Allseasons-Si]

The MetO have told councils across the country to prepare for a very cold winter this year. Winter preparedness at its finest LOL

What country,Russia!

 

do you have a link KL,thanks.

Edited October 22, 2014 by Allseasons-si

[LincolnSnowstorm]

Until we get NOAA back again any ideas for seeing  how we are progressing towards winter?

Better than nothing? http://www.yr.no/kart/#lat=67.99402&lon=33.83789&zoom=3&laga=temp&proj=900913

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

BFTV....why is SH polar jet behaving similar?

BFTP

 

It's not. The SH jet is moving closer to the south pole and becoming stronger.

 

For example, the AAO (Antarctic version of the AO) has become more positive in recent years (tighter more poleward jet stream), while the AO has become more negative.

 

Below is the 10 Year Avg AAO since 1988 (starts at 1988 because the AAO data I have only goes back to 1979)

 

10 Year Avg AO since 1988

 

 

See what I mean?

.

[karyo]

The MetO have told councils across the country to prepare for a very cold winter this year. Winter preparedness at its finest LOL[/quot

Is this coming from an official source?

[Nouska]

In the absence of the snow extent charts, we can maybe glean some insight from the GFS forecast for snowcover.

 

A loop from FIM :-    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?dsKeys=fim_jet:&runTime=2014102300&plotName=weasd_sfc&fcstInc=360&numFcsts=57&model=fim&ptitle=Experimental%20FIM%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=336&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=fim

 

Initialisation (which is maybe incorrect due to loss of data)

 

 

 

The run at T+192

 

 

 

We can see there is a bit of loss in Scandinavia due to the forecast pattern but there are some gains westward, south of 60 degrees.

 

Edited October 23, 2014 by Nouska

[johnholmes]

The MetO have told councils across the country to prepare for a very cold winter this year. Winter preparedness at its finest LOL[/quot

Is this coming from an official source?

 

seems a touch improbable unless they totally ignore their own seasonal models

What country,Russia!

 

do you have a link KL,thanks.

U would be amazed if he has

[Nick L]

Chinese whispers I think!

[johnholmes]

The MetO have told councils across the country to prepare for a very cold winter this year. Winter preparedness at its finest LOL

see my other comments about this-I suppose there are libel laws!