Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere Autumn/Winter 2014

[Ice Day]

Impressive gains over the last 24 hours, Sweden and Finland getting in on the act as well!

 

Yesterday v today

 

[snowking]

In terms of stratospheric feedback, the early gains are certainly playing in to the realms of Fred's (and potentially, from the sounds of things, Roger's) suggested early winter bite...

SK

[throwoff]

Some nice gains but I can't help but think a touch too soon!

Next week will be very interesting.

[LincolnSnowstorm]

Whoops, sorry LS you are quite right.

I was looking at the big red blob at the end of Siberia, and assumed it was Alaska after all the press reports and bloggs on here about it being very warm at the moment.

I hadn't seen any reports that it had cooled back to normal with average amounts of snow around.

My only excuse was I didn't have my reading glasses on at the time and I was sitting in the lovely sunshine we are experiencing today.

Sorry for the blooper

MIA

 

Chill     no worries MIA the big red Siberian blob will get smaller in the next few days, Yes Alaska could do better but its early days and Canada does seem to be more than compensation.

 

 

Talking of compo perhaps some in these 2010 charts

Alaska - 

Canada +

Russia - 

...this could lead to something!

[summer blizzard]

How much of these gains are below 60N? That;s whats important in Eurasia.

[LincolnSnowstorm]

How much of these gains are below 60N? That;s whats important in Eurasia.

A useful amount, I think for the date.

[throwoff]

I need to stop making these comparisons but

 

2010

 

 

2014 -

 

 

Well ahead on snow.

 

Worried about that as that's what we saw this point last year, need it to have more sticking power!

[Ice Day]

Another day of big gains. Russia's rapidly 'filling in'!

 

Yesterday vs today

 

 

[LincolnSnowstorm]

The Ice chart is  looking promising No sign of the red line joining the its blue,green and orange friends any time soon.

[LincolnSnowstorm]

I need to stop making these comparisons but

 

2010

 

 

2014 -

 

 

Well ahead on snow.

 

Worried about that as that's what we saw this point last year, need it to have more sticking power!

 

 

Here is last year to compare all ready for the crazy Atlantic!  

[bluearmy]

Looking at the current week 2 modelling indicates a big push west of snow cover in Russia and Scandinavia as a wedge of very cold air drops and travels west to east. This due to an arctic high displacing chunks of the vortex further south than usual for the time of year. remembering that it's the increase of cover that Cohen talks about through October and I'd say we look to be in a better place than last year in this regard. we began October with too much cover in 2013.

[summer blizzard]

Looking at the current week 2 modelling indicates a big push west of snow cover in Russia and Scandinavia as a wedge of very cold air drops and travels west to east. This due to an arctic high displacing chunks of the vortex further south than usual for the time of year. remembering that it's the increase of cover that Cohen talks about through October and I'd say we look to be in a better place than last year in this regard. we began October with too much cover in 2013.

 

Specifically it's the increase south of 60N. One can see in the post above that we are doing much better than 2013 with a lot of snow south. 

[damianslaw]

I think the pivotal period is the latter part of October roughly from around the 20th to the end of the month, this is when you want to see rapid snow movement extension westwards and southwards. I recall 2010 and 2012 especially saw rapid such movements around the 20th. Last year everything seemed to stop as we entered the latter part of the month.

 

Encouraging signs we will see such movement as we enter the pivotal period, but will the momentum hold through the whole of the latter part of the month..

[feb1991blizzard]

I think the pivotal period is the latter part of October roughly from around the 20th to the end of the month, this is when you want to see rapid snow movement extension westwards and southwards. I recall 2010 and 2012 especially saw rapid such movements around the 20th. Last year everything seemed to stop as we entered the latter part of the month.

 

Encouraging signs we will see such movement as we enter the pivotal period, but will the momentum hold through the whole of the latter part of the month..

 

Some people say the second week of October onwards is the important phase.

[karyo]

I think the pivotal period is the latter part of October roughly from around the 20th to the end of the month, this is when you want to see rapid snow movement extension westwards and southwards. I recall 2010 and 2012 especially saw rapid such movements around the 20th. Last year everything seemed to stop as we entered the latter part of the month.

 

Encouraging signs we will see such movement as we enter the pivotal period, but will the momentum hold through the whole of the latter part of the month..

I thought it was the 2nd half of October not specifically the last 3rd? Either way, we are coming close to that period.

[phil nw.]

Short term it looks OK for further snow over there with the modelling of the Russian trough digging south.

I have to say though i am less optimistic beyond next week going by the anomaly charts.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/naefs/run/naefsnh-0-0-240.png?0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014101200/EDH101-240.GIF

Signs of a badly orientated euro block and +ve 850,s could halt advancement south and west.

Let,s hope for some changes to that outlook before the end of the month.

[gottolovethisweather]

How is the comparison against 2012's snow and ice buildup at this stage?

 

The reason I ask is the Autumn of that year at least in terms of signs from the natural environment such as fruit & nut loadings on trees for instance are similar in 2014. Most probably not a strong scientific connection but fascinating nonetheless. Pattern matching to me is becoming much more difficult under our annual extreme climatic variations but its still fun to undertake it.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Latest weekly sea ice extent update can be seen here https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/74411-arctic-ice-data-and-stats/?p=3053365

[snowking]

It's worth keeping an eye on this site in the coming weeks:

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-nh.php?run=2014101212&var=SNOWCPER_sfc&hour=192

 

The latest projection shows some decent forecast gains South of 60N across particularly Western Russia/North-Eastern Europe:

 

 

SK

[LincolnSnowstorm]

How is the comparison against 2012's snow and ice buildup at this stage?

 

The reason I ask is the Autumn of that year at least in terms of signs from the natural environment such as fruit & nut loadings on trees for instance are similar in 2014. Most probably not a strong scientific connection but fascinating nonetheless. Pattern matching to me is becoming much more difficult under our annual extreme climatic variations but its still fun to undertake it.

Here that, as always interesting comparison gtltweather enjoy

 

Ice now then

 

Snow now

 

Snow then

It's worth keeping an eye on this site in the coming weeks:

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-nh.php?run=2014101212&var=SNOWCPER_sfc&hour=192

 

The latest projection shows some decent forecast gains South of 60N across particularly Western Russia/North-Eastern Europe:

 

NH_SNOWCPER_sfc_192.gif

 

SK

Hopefully, still wriggle room for an upgrade   

Edited October 13, 2014 by LincolnSnowstorm

[sebastiaan1973]

Most amount of snow in the SAI area since 1999. http://www.weerwoord.be/uploads/121020141327300.png

[summer blizzard]

Most amount of snow in the SAI area since 1999. http://www.weerwoord.be/uploads/121020141327300.png

 

As the important thing is supposed to be the gain rather than extent is there anyway to replot starting all years and 0 and plotting the amount gained to the end of the month with 2014 included to today.

[gottolovethisweather]

Here that, as always interesting comparison gtltweather enjoy

 

Ice now cursnow_alaska.gif then ims2012286_alaska.gif

 

Snow now cursnow_asiaeurope.gif cursnow_usa.gif

 

Snow then ims2012286_asiaeurope.gifims2012286_usa.gif

Hopefully, still wriggle room for an upgrade   

 

A rather crude assessment of those suggests us Europeans could well be favoured over the US states this time around, here's hoping. Far too early to call and despite other's thoughts elsewhere, I would hint at late October being a timescale to watch for those first Northerly excursions to take hold. Slowly slowly catchy monkey. 

Edited October 13, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[throwoff]

If it carries on at this rate for the rest of the month we could see some very decent totals, it is still building up nicely.

 

2010 to 2014 is shocking at how far ahead we are and that was a stunning winter for the coldies, getting the ice and snow in over the east is a vital bit of the puzzle if an easterly kicks in.

 

 

 

compared to now...

 

[radiohead]

Most amount of snow in the SAI area since 1999. http://www.weerwoord.be/uploads/121020141327300.png

This is certainly a good sign! Thanks for that.