Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere Autumn/Winter 2014

[Yarmy]

How much does snow cover over Siberia and Eastern Europe affect our winter weather?

 

Scott, Cohen's theory and his Snow Advance Index (SAI) metric are described in layman's terms here:

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/siberian-snowfall-may-help-improve-us-weather-forecasts-meteorologist-says/2011/11/11/gIQAR2Qx4N_story.html

 

The article is US-centric but a  negative AO also increases our chances of polar outbreaks. 

 

(I should point out that I neither endorse nor refute his ideas.)

[MR EXTREMES]

Scott, Cohen's theory and his Snow Advance Index (SAI) metric are described in layman's terms here:

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/siberian-snowfall-may-help-improve-us-weather-forecasts-meteorologist-says/2011/11/11/gIQAR2Qx4N_story.html

 

The article is US-centric but a  negative AO also increases our chances of polar outbreaks. 

 

(I should point out that I neither endorse nor refute his ideas.)

although it has to be noted that this theory is far from convincing as we had some pretty good SAI in recent years but it never favoured us.

my in general i think with el nino and east QBO this winter could be alittle more exciting than last.

 

although an 09/10 or 62/63 winter id thought is very unlikely i do believe there was a direct effect in 09/10 winter was due to a very extended 0 sunspot count.

 

and this year has been very active on the sun in comparison to years leading up until 09/10 although still low considering the solar cycle 23 was very active time on the sun.

 

but i expect europe to do better than last year but nothing on winter 09/10

[Interitus]

With regards to snow advance index (SAI) the key finding correlating with AO is illustrated by this graph in the supporting material from Cohen & Jones 2011 paper - http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/store/10.1029/2011GL049626/asset/supinfo/grl28662-sup-0002-fs01.pdf?v=1&s=25752f79fe57b690307343baed987015d8cd24c4

 

The Eurasian October snow to look out for between 0-180°E is particularly in the range of latitudes approximately 51-57°N peak influence about 53°N

[LincolnSnowstorm]

There is a belief that the extent of snow in October has a bearing on the type of winter western Europe experiences.

I should of course add, it is but one variable that has to be used when trying to predict a winter pattern. There is something I think somewhere on the Met O website about these factors.

 

googling showed the link below

http://www.aer.com/news-events/blog/snow-advance-index-new-tool-predicting-winter%E2%80%99s-severity

 

I found nothing quickly on the UK Met site but I have never found it easy trying to get into the enormous amount of data they store!

Nice link john showing the 50/50 nature of our warm and cold winters, I  notice the WSI is surprisingly close to the SAI especially for very cold were it over takes it.

[LincolnSnowstorm]

With regards to snow advance index (SAI) the key finding correlating with AO is illustrated by this graph in the supporting material from Cohen & Jones 2011 paper - http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/store/10.1029/2011GL049626/asset/supinfo/grl28662-sup-0002-fs01.pdf?v=1&s=25752f79fe57b690307343baed987015d8cd24c4

 

The Eurasian October snow to look out for between 0-180°E is particularly in the range of latitudes approximately 51-57°N peak influence about 53°N

I live around the area of peak influence then, will be looking hoping for a super fast SAI next month.

[LincolnSnowstorm]

Is this years line expected to join the others in late October... just curious

Edited September 19, 2014 by LincolnSnowstorm

[LincolnSnowstorm]

Big contrast between now and 2010 ,hoping the action picks up away from the US side and gives the SAI a chance

 

Gif slow to start

 

Early days and first proper blob...

Edited September 21, 2014 by LincolnSnowstorm

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

although it has to be noted that this theory is far from convincing as we had some pretty good SAI in recent years but it never favoured us.

my in general i think with el nino and east QBO this winter could be alittle more exciting than last.

 

although an 09/10 or 62/63 winter id thought is very unlikely i do believe there was a direct effect in 09/10 winter was due to a very extended 0 sunspot count.

 

and this year has been very active on the sun in comparison to years leading up until 09/10 although still low considering the solar cycle 23 was very active time on the sun.

 

but i expect europe to do better than last year but nothing on winter 09/10

Solar activity is still low. its at its cycle peak so should not and cannot be compared to 09.  However, considering its at peak comared to peak times of 20th century cycles it is very low and slumbering. 

 

BFTP

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Predictions of a collapse were in reference to the ice shelves and sheets. The Larson B ice shelf did collapse recently and several others are sufferring strong melt, especially from below. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Larsen_Ice_Shelf

The melt predictions were for the ice sheet, and have been entirely accurate. Recent studies have suggested a collapse of the west Antarctic ice sheet, which is suffering from accelerating melt.

http://www.awi.de/en/news/press_releases/detail/item/record_decline_of_ice_sheets_for_the_first_time_scientists_map_elevation_changes_of_greenlandic_and/?cHash=40fbf2d15cbc909996cc02458d8cd973

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/05/140515090934.htm

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL060111/abstract

Melting from geothermal activity from below, and no there has been so much falsified scaremongering and despite this 'melting'....further increase of ice yet again smashing records,,,again...,the ice keeps increasing and that pretty important fact keeps on being ignored very very conveniently....

Back to NH. re October snowcover I believe Cohen's theory is rate of increase during October and at lower latitude.  It is of course no guarantor.

 

BFTP

Edited September 21, 2014 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[cheese]

surprised this snowfall in Kiruna, Sweden went unnoticed on here.

 

[karyo]

surprised this snowfall in Kiruna, Sweden went unnoticed on here.

 

Lovely early snowfall thanks to the Arctic blast that is affecting Scandinavia. We'd be lucky here to see so much snow in January, never mind September!

[LincolnSnowstorm]

surprised this snowfall in Kiruna, Sweden went unnoticed on here.

 

he

Sorry I'm slacking! Eastern Finland and Norway for the next webcam targets me thinks  http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/scand?over=none&symbols=snow&type=snow.next3days http://www.yr.no/place/Finland/Eastern_Finland/Ilomantsi/ may improve.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/scand?over=none&symbols=snow&type=snow.next3to6days

[Ice Day]

Nice new 'chunks' appearing in Russia and Alaska.  

 

 

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Melting from geothermal activity from below, and no there has been so much falsified scaremongering and despite this 'melting'....further increase of ice yet again smashing records,,,again...,the ice keeps increasing and that pretty important fact keeps on being ignored very very conveniently....

Back to NH. re October snowcover I believe Cohen's theory is rate of increase during October and at lower latitude.  It is of course no guarantor.

 

BFTP

 

Emm... how much melting from below? You have to be careful in making assumptions about the contribution of geothermal, especially when you don't take time to look at the actual figures.

 

"Rignot, also the lead author of a study out last month that documented widespread retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, said geothermal heating contributes to a few millimeters of melting annually, compared to rising sea temperatures which can trigger rates of up to 100 meters each year."

https://news.vice.com/article/no-volcanoes-are-not-the-primary-cause-for-the-melting-ice-caps

 

Yes the sea ice is increasing, nobody is ignoring that, but the ice sheets, both in Antarctica and Greenland, are melting at an accelerating rate. No falsified scaremongering required.

 

[Yarmy]

Spitzbergen looking resplendent during sunset. 

 

http://sveaspitzbergen.livecam360.com/flash/main.php

[LincolnSnowstorm]

Spitzbergen looking resplendent during sunset. 

 

http://sveaspitzbergen.livecam360.com/flash/main.php

nice and as its below freezing all the time now that's not going anywhere soon.

[Iceni]

Emm... how much melting from below? You have to be careful in making assumptions about the contribution of geothermal, especially when you don't take time to look at the actual figures.

 

"Rignot, also the lead author of a study out last month that documented widespread retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, said geothermal heating contributes to a few millimeters of melting annually, compared to rising sea temperatures which can trigger rates of up to 100 meters each year."

https://news.vice.com/article/no-volcanoes-are-not-the-primary-cause-for-the-melting-ice-caps

 

Yes the sea ice is increasing, nobody is ignoring that, but the ice sheets, both in Antarctica and Greenland, are melting at an accelerating rate. No falsified scaremongering required.

 

 

 

Oh give it a rest. THERE HAS BEEN NO GLOBAL WARMING FOR 17 YEARS, 11 MONTHS.

 

http://www.climatedepot.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/1711years-300x168.png

 

Just stop insulting our intelligence.

Edited September 23, 2014 by Iceni

[Interitus]

Oh give it a rest. THERE HAS BEEN NO GLOBAL WARMING FOR 17 YEARS, 11 MONTHS.

 

http://www.climatedepot.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/1711years-300x168.png

 

Just stop insulting our intelligence.

 

Just plain wrong, and in the wrong thread.

 

Recent data can be seen in this thread - https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77068-global-surface-air-temperature-current-conditions-and-future-prospects/page-8

Edited September 23, 2014 by Interitus

[BornFromTheVoid]

Oh give it a rest. THERE HAS BEEN NO GLOBAL WARMING FOR 17 YEARS, 11 MONTHS.

 

http://www.climatedepot.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/1711years-300x168.png

 

Just stop insulting our intelligence.

 

I haven't mentioned global warming, but I can see you are willing to dismiss anything I posts because I believe the science over the political blogs. That's up to you. However, you should be aware that the RSS satellite is old, has run out of fuel and it's orbit is decaying. This means that it no longer measures the same areas of the globe at the same time, so it cannot get accurate temperature readings. It is simply no longer is an accurate measure of global temperature, which even prominent climate sceptics acknowledge, such as Roy Spencer and John Christy, who run the main satellite temperature record at UAH. Sorry if that information is insulting to your intelligence, but I think it's an important point to be aware of.

 

For a look at what the other temperature series show, I'd like to direct you to this post here, or for info on recent global temperatures, this thread may be of use.

 

This thread isn't for discussing global warming, so if you wish to continue "debating", then the climate and environment area is just a few clicks away!

[jonboy]

Beyond the 'normal' climatic cycles at this time of year as we head towards winter it will be interesting to see what effect all the additional SO2 being pumped out by the volcanic activity in iceland will have on level of ozone in the NH and consequent temperature and conditions for snow production. When these impacts take effect will be the key but as others have said greater ozone should lead to easier and potential stronger warming events over the coming months. Massive learning ahead.

[bryan629]

Nice new 'chunks' appearing in Russia and Alaska.  

Hi, Can you share the link for the N/Hemisphere maps plz. i cant find them on Noaa anywhere....thanks in advance. 

[SteveB]

Hi Bryan

 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/

[bryan629]

so minimum ice extent reached now.

 

looking forward to the posts on this thread over the comming month or so . 

 

Just plucked this of twitter by the met...the link is a good read, specially the last paragraph... ties in nicely with what CreweCold just posted on the early winter thread. 

 

 

 

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2014/09/23/arctic-sea-ice-reaches-minimum-extent-for-2014/

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

The National Snow and Ice Data Centre (NSIDC) have a short report on the Arctic sea ice minimum this year, with a short piece on Antarctica too.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2014/09/arctic-minimum-reached/

[Ice Day]

Yesterday vs today.  Plenty of new snow around, really getting going now!

 

 

 

Sea ice appears to have start expanding again as well

Edited September 23, 2014 by Ice Day