Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere Autumn/Winter 2014

[phil nw.]

A very cold Stratosphere was the main driver in last Winter's storminess, coupled with the west QBO.

At years end it was at an almost record low temperature at mid-levels.

It created a stronger than normal thermal gradient/jet which came fast and flat across the Atlantic.

At least this Winter the QBO will be negative which is thought to limit the strength of polar vortex,although this of course is only one factor.

[TonyH]

Disagree, the correlation between a cold eastern Us and western Europe is quite high.

Last year was just bad luck.

Indeed such correlations are complex and tenuous at best.

[summer blizzard]

It very much depends on whether heights build sufficiently over Greenland - you would expect with a deep long wave trough over NE USA an equally strong ridge would develop ahead of it over mid atlantic sending down trough action from the NW, but last year this never happened- lots of other factors need to come into play But yes a meridional flow over USA should in normal circumstances increase chances of colder blasts for us. Last year was preety extreme.

Aye. Its worth noting that the jet did go south for some time, hence the reason why the south had it worse than the north.

[damianslaw]

Aye. Its worth noting that the jet did go south for some time, hence the reason why the south had it worse than the north.

 

 

Yes the Jetstream was quite southerly but it was also very flat, the energy off the eastern USA seaboard was just too strong to allow buckling and ridge development over the mid atlantic, as each low exited our shores the next was waiting on the wings, less energy could have resulted in some sharp trough/ridge action and more of a colder NW influence at times, with plenty of snow for the north at least, alas it never happened.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

 

Just need to show this even though its antarctica...all previous records smashed, many were forecasting catastrophic ice collapse/melt about 5-7 years ago

 

BFTP

Edited September 14, 2014 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Ice Day]

 

Just need to show this even though its antarctica...all previous records smashed, many were forecasting catastrophic ice collapse/melt about 5-7 years ago

 

BFTP

 

Yes, some incredible ice totals being shown in the Southern Hemisphere.  I wonder if this will make the front page of the Independent !?!?

 

 

[Skullzrulerz]

 

Just need to show this even though its antarctica...all previous records smashed, many were forecasting catastrophic ice collapse/melt about 5-7 years ago

 

BFTP

 

Can you please find a image of that please since it no longer works.

 

 

 

Snow is slowly starting to build up in Russia/China. 

[stewfox]

We're ranked in the thirties so well below average and below last year.

 

I was talking about week 35 not August, as I mentioned there not the same of course. 

 

2013 and 2000 higher and a few other years before then  1978 etc but not many.

 

For week 35 one of the highest on record

 

Daily chart departure remains positive

 

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2014&ui_day=257&ui_set=2

Edited September 15, 2014 by stewfox

[BornFromTheVoid]

 

Just need to show this even though its antarctica...all previous records smashed, many were forecasting catastrophic ice collapse/melt about 5-7 years ago

 

BFTP

 

Predictions of a collapse were in reference to the ice shelves and sheets. The Larson B ice shelf did collapse recently and several others are sufferring strong melt, especially from below. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Larsen_Ice_Shelf

The melt predictions were for the ice sheet, and have been entirely accurate. Recent studies have suggested a collapse of the west Antarctic ice sheet, which is suffering from accelerating melt.

http://www.awi.de/en/news/press_releases/detail/item/record_decline_of_ice_sheets_for_the_first_time_scientists_map_elevation_changes_of_greenlandic_and/?cHash=40fbf2d15cbc909996cc02458d8cd973

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/05/140515090934.htm

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL060111/abstract

[jonboy]

Predictions of a collapse were in reference to the ice shelves and sheets. The Larson B ice shelf did collapse recently and several others are sufferring strong melt, especially from below. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Larsen_Ice_Shelf

The melt predictions were for the ice sheet, and have been entirely accurate. Recent studies have suggested a collapse of the west Antarctic ice sheet, which is suffering from accelerating melt.

http://www.awi.de/en/news/press_releases/detail/item/record_decline_of_ice_sheets_for_the_first_time_scientists_map_elevation_changes_of_greenlandic_and/?cHash=40fbf2d15cbc909996cc02458d8cd973

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/05/140515090934.htm

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL060111/abstract

 

Lets be clear the articles talk about a process that will take at best 200years and probably at least 1000years so how predictions over such timescales can be called accurate beats me. I would love to know the make and model of the crystal ball!!!!

[BornFromTheVoid]

Lets be clear the articles talk about a process that will take at best 200years and probably at least 1000years so how predictions over such timescales can be called accurate beats me. I would love to know the make and model of the crystal ball!!!!

 

I'm sure it was a simple mistake that led you to ignore the other links, as only one of them discusses the collapse of the west Antarctic ice sheet.Anyway, an ice shelf hundreds to thousands of meters thick will not collapse overnight, it's a long process. However, observations do show that it's losing ice at an accelerating rate, which you can see in the other links I posted.

 

If you want to know how they can make such predictions or observations, then perhaps learning a little about ice sheet dynamics, modelling, remote sensing, etc, might help. Or you could continue to dismiss the work of expert scientists by comparing what they do to using a crystal ball... it's your call really.

[laserguy]

Anyway, an ice shelf hundreds to thousands of meters thick will not collapse overnight, it's a long process.

 

So who gives a crap - we'll all be dead anyway.

[LincolnSnowstorm]

On a slightly lighter note  On 17th Sep afternoon it may be  worth a looking at  http://www.snsk.no/longyearbyen.145587.en.html http://longyearbyen.livecam360.net/ because http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Longyearbyen/hour_by_hour.html

[bryan629]

A nice snowy start to the day in Svalbard

 

[jonboy]

I posted this in the Antarctic ice thread

http://iceagenow.info/2014/09/researchers-find-major-west-antarctic-glacier-melting-geothermal-sources/

Edited September 17, 2014 by jonboy

[Iceni]

Predictions of a collapse were in reference to the ice shelves and sheets. The Larson B ice shelf did collapse recently and several others are sufferring strong melt, especially from below. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Larsen_Ice_Shelf

The melt predictions were for the ice sheet, and have been entirely accurate. Recent studies have suggested a collapse of the west Antarctic ice sheet, which is suffering from accelerating melt.

http://www.awi.de/en/news/press_releases/detail/item/record_decline_of_ice_sheets_for_the_first_time_scientists_map_elevation_changes_of_greenlandic_and/?cHash=40fbf2d15cbc909996cc02458d8cd973

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/05/140515090934.htm

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL060111/abstract

 

Especially from below…

 

 

I posted this in the Antarctic ice thread

http://iceagenow.info/2014/09/researchers-find-major-west-antarctic-glacier-melting-geothermal-sources/

 

 

 

"This map shows the locations of geothermal flow underneath Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica that were identified with airborne ice-penetrating radar. The dark magenta triangles show where geothermal flow exceeds 150 milliwatts per square meter, and the light magenta triangles show where flow exceeds 200 milliwatts per square meter. Letters C, D and E denote high melt areas: in the western-most tributary, C; adjacent to the Crary mountains, D; and in the upper portion of the central tributaries, E. Credit: University of Texas Institute Geophysics."

Edited September 17, 2014 by Iceni

[BornFromTheVoid]

Especially from below…

 

 

 

 

 

"This map shows the locations of geothermal flow underneath Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica that were identified with airborne ice-penetrating radar. The dark magenta triangles show where geothermal flow exceeds 150 milliwatts per square meter, and the light magenta triangles show where flow exceeds 200 milliwatts per square meter. Letters C, D and E denote high melt areas: in the western-most tributary, C; adjacent to the Crary mountains, D; and in the upper portion of the central tributaries, E. Credit: University of Texas Institute Geophysics."

 

The melt from volcanic source is a tiny fraction of the melt from air and ocean.

 

Rignot, also the lead author of a study out last month that documented widespread retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, said geothermal heating contributes to a few millimeters of melting annually, compared to rising sea temperatures which can trigger rates of up to 100 meters each year.

https://news.vice.com/article/no-volcanoes-are-not-the-primary-cause-for-the-melting-ice-caps

[manx_mick]

Here is a comparison of 2012/13/14 for September 16th

 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/ARCHIVE/EuAsia/2012/ims2012260_asiaeurope.gif

 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/ARCHIVE/EuAsia/2013/ims2013259_asiaeurope.gif

 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/ARCHIVE/EuAsia/2014/ims2014259_asiaeurope.gif

     

[LincolnSnowstorm]

A nice snowy start to the day in Svalbard

 

lyb_big.jpg

Death taxes and .....lovely Svalbard early snow so dependable in this world of fail.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Looks like this years Arctic sea ice coverage will fall between the 6th and 7th lowest on record. So slightly less than last year, and close to 2009, but very little between 2009, 2013 and 2014.

 

August had the 14th lowest snow cover on record for the northern hemisphere http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/table_rankings.php?ui_set=1 

[throwoff]

Great to see my favourite thread back!

Time to start checking this every morning!

[Neilsouth]

Great to see my favourite thread back!

Time to start checking this every morning!

 

Obviously all that lovely snow encroaching from the east did nothing to repel the Atlantic force the previous winter! Not a flake of snow, dire 

[karyo]

Obviously all that lovely snow encroaching from the east did nothing to repel the Atlantic force the previous winter! Not a flake of snow, dire 

October is the crucial month and unfortunately last year the snow cover increase stalled.

[LincolnSnowstorm]

How much does snow cover over Siberia and Eastern Europe affect our winter weather?

Imo a small amount because the Atlantic dominates most winters, and so our weather more than the north or east.

If there is a huge pool of cold and snow to tap into my hopes are it spreads west!    

Edited September 18, 2014 by LincolnSnowstorm

[johnholmes]

Imo a small amount because the Atlantic dominates most winters, and so our weather more than the north or east.

If there is a huge pool of cold and snow to tap into my hopes are it spreads west!    

 

 

There is a belief that the extent of snow in October has a bearing on the type of winter western Europe experiences.

I should of course add, it is but one variable that has to be used when trying to predict a winter pattern. There is something I think somewhere on the Met O website about these factors.

 

googling showed the link below

http://www.aer.com/news-events/blog/snow-advance-index-new-tool-predicting-winter%E2%80%99s-severity

 

I found nothing quickly on the UK Met site but I have never found it easy trying to get into the enormous amount of data they store!

Edited September 18, 2014 by johnholmes