Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere Autumn/Winter 2014

[LincolnSnowstorm]

Some eye candy to wet the appetite  ,nothing serious

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/scotland

 

next month

Edited October 18, 2014 by LincolnSnowstorm

[Sandri13]

[bobbydog]

Hi, do you have a link to that graph?

[radiohead]

We are doing exceptionally well here!

[snowking]

Just some figures and a couple of charts from one of the Italian forums. Let's start with the pretty picture:

 

 

The red zone is the SAI measuring zone, and so shows the considerable amount of lying snow already present South of 60N.

 

The next are some figures related to the SAI from this year and previous years (calculated using the gradient from an update to the chart posted by radiohead above):

 

 

 

Slope 2014, at the time : 284,600 km ^ 2 per day 
Gradient 2009 later this month : 259,908 km ^ 2 per day 
Slope, 2013, at the end of the month : 258,331 km ^ 2 per day 
average at the end of the month (1999-2013): 175,000 km ^ 2 per day.

 

What is apparent is that the current rate of increase (based upon data up to today) is higher than it was through October 2009 as a whole, but of course much as with the OPI we need to wait until the end of the month to find out the actual value. 

 

SK

[bluearmy]

We must not forget that the 31st oct is a fairly arbitrary date. Could be the 27/28th, could be the 3rd nov. What matters is how much more is laid down over the next 10 to 20 days and how much melt occurs.

Going to have a good look at Asia on the extended ECM ens later.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I'll be amazed if it isn't in a good state by months end. All still increase as they go along, surely this must continue?

I've already committed prior to build up ;-)

BFTP

Edited October 18, 2014 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[throwoff]

I'll be amazed if it isn't in a good state by months end. All still increase as they go along, surely this must continue?I've already committed prior to build up ;-)BFTP

We said all this last year!

I won't believe it till I see the map well into November!

[bluearmy]

We said all this last year!

I won't believe it till I see the map well into November!

Last year we started October with too much cover and as we went through the month, we actually lost some of it. Given the starting point, it was never going to be a month where the advance was going to be notable.

[sebastiaan1973]

Just some figures and a couple of charts from one of the Italian forums. Let's start with the pretty picture:

 

 

These graphics are made by Rutger, a Dutchman posting at weerwoord, a Belgium forum.

http://www.weerwoord.be/includes/forum_read.php?id=2023391&tid=2023329

Edited October 19, 2014 by sebastiaan1973

[chionomaniac]

 

 

These graphics are made by Rutger, a Dutchman posting at weerwoord, a Belgium forum.

Thank you Sebastiaan - that is a great graph. Sandri 13 please can you provide a link and/or credit the source that you use in future. Thank you.

[snowking]

These graphics are made by Rutger, a Dutchman posting at weerwoord, a Belgium forum.

Good to know - I grabbed them from the Italian forums so they're definitely doing the rounds!

Do you happen to have a link to the thread on the Belgian forums to follow?

Cheers

SK

[chionomaniac]

We said all this last year!

I won't believe it till I see the map well into November!

Look at the forecast for the 1st of November. No loss here!

 

By T+ 192 we have a significant gain:

 

 

And even better by 1st November there is another 4% gain forecast for the whole of the NH from today's 10.52% coverage.

 

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-nh.php?run=2014101900&var=SNOWC_sfc&hour=000

[sebastiaan1973]

Good to know - I grabbed them from the Italian forums so they're definitely doing the rounds!

Do you happen to have a link to the thread on the Belgian forums to follow?

Cheers

SK

 

HI SK

http://www.weerwoord.be/

 

This forum is different organised than netweather, there are no threads, just topics. So everything is mixed over there. You can search his name at the forum. I 'spoke' to him and he told he will update every 3-4 days.

 

@ Chio, incredible snowcover forecast. Amazing year so far in terms of Siberian snow.

Edited October 19, 2014 by sebastiaan1973

[chionomaniac]

HI SK

http://www.weerwoord.be/

 

This forum is different organised than netweather, there are no threads, just topics. So everything is mixed over there. You can search his name at the forum. I 'spoke' to him and he told he will update every 3-4 days.

 

@ Chio, incredible snowcover forecast. Amazing year so far in terms of Siberian snow.

Yes, It looks possible that Judah will be getting the best test illustration of the SAI yet!

Edited October 19, 2014 by chionomaniac

[karyo]

Amazing snowcover and forecast! I was a bit concerned with yesterday's gfs bringing westerlies in a good part of Russia but today's forecast puts my mind at ease!

[BornFromTheVoid]

Last year we started October with too much cover and as we went through the month, we actually lost some of it. Given the starting point, it was never going to be a month where the advance was going to be notable.

 

We started this month after the 8th largest Eurasian September snow cover extent on record, last year started after the 7th largest.

 

1st October 2013 anomaly .......... ......... 1st October 2014 anomaly

 

 

Not much of a difference for the starting points, but we've maintained an incredible growth rate since then

 

October 18th 2013 anomaly .......... .......... October 18th 2014 anomaly

 

[phil nw.]

Yes, It looks possible that Judah will be getting the best test illustration of the SAI yet!

What's reassuring for our side are the removal of  forecasted +e 850's over parts of Eurasia that are currently squeezing the Russian cold pool.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014101900/EDH100-48.GIF?19-12

much better by day 10

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014101900/EDH100-240.GIF?19-12

 

The modelled UK high for next week should keep the mild Atlantic away from there- let's hope that outlook holds.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Last year, Eurasian snow cover finished as the 4th largest on record. Below is a image of the snow cover from October 31st.

 

October 31st 2013

 

The Eurasian cover up to the 18th of this month is very similar, which indicates a top 2 or 3 October snow cover is quite likely by the end of the month,

 

October 18th 2014

 

 

[summer blizzard]

Indeed looks good. I doubt we will match 2009 and 2012 overall for the 60N and below snowcover. 2012 especially was much more N-S.

[BornFromTheVoid]

The latest weekly sea ice extent update is here https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/74411-arctic-ice-data-and-stats/?p=3056617

[keithlucky]

Weather in Russia pretty cold 20f below normal ATM,,Forcast a fair bit of snow accumalating there Pretty hard weather forecasted for the winter according to russian met ,http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/muscovites-in-for-a-harsh-winter-as-temperatures-set-to-plunge/509575.html

[SMU]

SAI RECORDS SMASHED... Will be the headline if the ECM verifies.

 

Almost PERFECT conditions for deep snowcover west of Russia by the end of the run, completing a bonanza month on the snow advancement index.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0

S

[feb1991blizzard]

SAI RECORDS SMASHED... Will be the headline if the ECM verifies.

 

Almost PERFECT conditions for deep snowcover west of Russia by the end of the run, completing a bonanza month on the snow advancement index.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0

S

 

Cover gets even further West if the CFS verified, although given its probably the worst model, that's a much lower question mark threshold I must admit!!!.

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

Cover gets even further West if the CFS verified, although given its probably the worst model, that's a much lower question mark threshold I must admit!!!.

 

 

 

That cannot happen in October can it!!!

It looks like another WTF moment to me.

 

MIA