Yorkshire and Lincolnshire - Weather Chat

[NorthYorksWeather]

Looking at the latest GFS I think the cold spell with regards to snow is just beginning for those east of the A1. This weekend the Northerly gradually gets colder although the winds are just slightly N of West most of the time, this will keep showers relatively close to the coast and the MetO warnings reflect that well. As we head into Monday/Tuesday winds start to tilt towards the NE with uppers of around -7/8c, so I expect there to be some good amount of convection and heading inland, more especially Tuesday and Wednesday. This is when I hope towns and cities that have missed out on any notable snowfall so far could see some action for eg. Hull, York, Beverley, Pickering, Malton, Helmsley, Easingwold, Pocklington, Driffield and Thirsk to name a few. Those not on the immediate coastline as well should be fine aswell. (PMPhotography). I can imagine those in Lincolnshire will have their best chance of snow during this period. Will probs try some forecasting as we head into this period as I was quite happy with my predicted snowfall totals when we had the Northerly 2 weeks back.

 

[Adam lufc]

We'll I'm completely confused!

Updated meto warnings!! Cover us all whole of Saturday and Tuesday!! On paper looks exciting but on forecasts n texts looks naff.

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[NorthYorksWeather]

We'll I'm completely confused!

Updated meto warnings!! Cover us all whole of Saturday and Tuesday!! On paper looks exciting but on forecasts n texts looks naff.

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I think tomorrow looks a messy feature, looking at latest NMM theres showers cropping up anywhere so they are just playing it safe. On Tuesday you say all of us are in the warning but it looks like Western areas of our region will miss out. Looks like the MetO saw my thoughts for Tuesday and blatantly copied me again.

Edited January 30, 2015 by vizzy2004

[caistor top]

By the looks of the bbc forecast we could waking up to a covering tom morning round here

[NorthYorksWeather]

By the looks of the bbc forecast we could waking up to a covering tom morning round here

 

Yes their latest graphics shows a band of rain/snow along eastern areas overnight. GFS has it just clipping the coast, NMM shows nothing at all, bit puzzled by it really but you never know.

Latest GEFS ensemble mean for Tuesday evening, a chart of beauty my IMBY and showers could push well inland.

 

 

Also worth noting that 9 out of 21 members keep a decent easterly up until Friday, the rest just have a high nudging towards up. All charts cold up until weekend, just some slight variations in snow distribution.

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

I'm with Vizzy on this one.

 

There has always been an expected slight relaxing of the cold for today but as we move into the weekend we will start to become influenced by truly arctic air, which incidentally, will probably be the first time any sustained winds from such a direction have influenced our region for quite some time! 

 

As for it being dry, at the moment, the forecast looks that way but features can pop up quickly (look at last night!) when the upper air is so cold and so don't be surprised to see further troughs and disturbances appear in the charts at relatively short notice.  Also, if the wind does have any kind of Easterly element over the coming days, showers are likely to drift quite a long way inland on the stiff breeze - no chance of marginality being an issue away from the immediate coast either.

 

High pressure does look like pushing in later next week but that will then bring us harsh frosts (hoar frosts?!) and maybe some freezing fog under snowcover, so that will bring more wintry delights!

 

Also, don't forget when the pattern tries to breakdown from the West, we could see some BIG falls of snow, especially if the breakdown ultimately fails, so nothing to be despondent about as far as I'm concerned.  I for one am going to enjoy this weekend regardless of what it brings weatherwise.

 

At least it WON'T be mild!

Edited January 30, 2015 by Kentish Snowman

[Mark Griffin]

Now casting situation for the next few days, don't think any model or forecaster is going to know for sure what will happen in the next week so keep your eyes on the radar.

[Bradowl]

We'll I can't believe how poor the bbc are being! And I cannot believe that temps are forecast to be 4/5c. Expect all snow gone by later!

The bbc say snow showers or sleet tonight and snow showers sat night giving a covering! I bet there wrong on both counts!! Very poor.

I would have thought clear blue skies with snow cover would have kept the air temp v.low. But obviously not.

I think the air isn't so cold because it's not a true Arctic air. More of coming around the low pressure system from the north.

This should change over coming days bringing lower temps.

[Winter Cold]

I'm with Vizzy on this one.

 

There has always been an expected slight relaxing of the cold for today but as we move into the weekend we will start to become influenced by truly arctic air, which incidentally, will probably be the first time any sustained winds from such a direction have influenced our region for quite some time! 

 

As for it being dry, at the moment, the forecast looks that way but features can pop up quickly (look at last night!) when the upper air is so cold and so don't be surprised to see further troughs and disturbances appear in the charts at relatively short notice.  Also, if the wind does have any kind of Easterly element over the coming days, showers are likely to drift quite a long way inland on the stiff breeze - no chance of marginality being an issue away from the immediate coast either.

 

High pressure does look like pushing in later next week but that will then bring us harsh frosts (hoar frosts?!) and maybe some freezing fog under snowcover, so that will bring more wintry delights!

 

Also, don't forget when the pattern tries to breakdown from the West, we could see some BIG falls of snow, especially if the breakdown ultimately fails, so nothing to be despondent about as far as I'm concerned.  I for one am going to enjoy this weekend regardless of what it brings weatherwise.

 

At least it WON'T be mild!

 

Absolutely spot on   Couldnt agree more! Thats a great description of the next few days/week. Plenty to smile about coming up me thinks

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

I have only just noticed that further Weather Warnings have now been issued for the next few days.

 

This one for tomorrow caught my eye.  Could be some tasty conditions over the North York Moors in particular later on tomorrow!

 

 

Following a temporary less cold period on Friday and into Saturday morning, a very cold airmass will spread southwards across Scotland and Northern Ireland accompanied by strong winds, spreading Southwards into Northern England and North Wales later in the day.  Frequent showers are likely to form in this airmass, and with the cold air snow is likely to accumulate, even to low levels in places.  Periods of enhanced snowfall are possible within this general flow, perhaps more especially across the high ground of Scotland and Northeast England, but these details are more uncertain.

 

There is the potential for disruption throughout this period due to the accumulating snow and ice but also with temporary blizzard conditions leading to very difficult driving conditions.

 

 

Also another warning for Tuesday which looks equally as good;

 

The arctic airmass, by this time already firmly established across the UK, will continue to bring frequent and heavy snow showers to Eastern parts of the UK.  During Tuesday, a subtle change in wind direction will allow showers to spread further inland, with snow showers possibly falling quite widely across Northern England (east of the Pennines), along with the Midlands and parts of southeast England. The airmass is sufficiently cold for snow showers to accumulate at low-levels and some locally heavy falls are possible.

 

 

Streamer territory a la 2010?  Just saying.....  

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

Absolutely spot on   Couldnt agree more! Thats a great description of the next few days/week. Plenty to smile about coming up me thinks

 

Can't wait to be honest.  The cold spell 'proper' starts tomorrow.  Bring it on!

[alibabba]

well I am taking no notice of met office from now on when they say we due to have snow we get non and when they say clear and dry we get some belting snow showers lol Think we have our own microclimate here in costa del skeggy. Hope we get some snow over next few days but met office has us  down for just cloud. radar and curtain twitching for me

[NorthYorksWeather]

I have only just noticed that further Weather Warnings have now been issued for the next few days.

 

This one for tomorrow caught my eye.  Could be some tasty conditions over the North York Moors in particular later on tomorrow!

 

 

Following a temporary less cold period on Friday and into Saturday morning, a very cold airmass will spread southwards across Scotland and Northern Ireland accompanied by strong winds, spreading Southwards into Northern England and North Wales later in the day.  Frequent showers are likely to form in this airmass, and with the cold air snow is likely to accumulate, even to low levels in places.  Periods of enhanced snowfall are possible within this general flow, perhaps more especially across the high ground of Scotland and Northeast England, but these details are more uncertain.

 

There is the potential for disruption throughout this period due to the accumulating snow and ice but also with temporary blizzard conditions leading to very difficult driving conditions.

 

 

Also another warning for Tuesday which looks equally as good;

 

The arctic airmass, by this time already firmly established across the UK, will continue to bring frequent and heavy snow showers to Eastern parts of the UK.  During Tuesday, a subtle change in wind direction will allow showers to spread further inland, with snow showers possibly falling quite widely across Northern England (east of the Pennines), along with the Midlands and parts of southeast England. The airmass is sufficiently cold for snow showers to accumulate at low-levels and some locally heavy falls are possible.

 

 

Streamer territory a la 2010?  Just saying.....  

 

 

LOL not sure about 2010 as that year had -10c and lower uppers streaming off the North sea, but I think it could be a decent event. Some ensembles have a slacker flow and some have tight isobars coming from a NE, we need them to be a tight as poss to really kick off convection. Best places for snow next week tho for sure North York Moors, Yorkshire Wolds and Howardian Hills.

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

LOL not sure about 2010 as that year had -10c and lower uppers streaming off the North sea, but I think it could be a decent event. Some ensembles have a slacker flow and some have tight isobars coming from a NE, we need them to be a tight as poss to really kick off convection. Best places for snow next week tho for sure North York Moors, Yorkshire Wolds and Howardian Hills.

 

I know it was said in jest really to set the cat amongst the pigeons.  We can but dream though...

[NorthYorksWeather]

These charts are not the best but its interesting to see how far they reckon the showers will get inland during Tuesday.

 

 

[saint]

The much colder air will definitely, as mentioned previously, start to be felt from tomorrow evening onwards. We've already seen settling snow in the past few days (And a few other times previously this winter), and having lived near London during last winter, being up here makes me realise just how much more of a chance for snow you get when further north! 

 

With the colder air coming in, and the the fact it wont entirely be stable, I think we'll see a fair few shots at snow (Maybe not huge, huge amounts) over the coming days... It looks like it will be cold for most of the week, and when you have the cold in place, you need is some PPN to make things interesting... And PPN might not be picked up by models until a couple of hours before!

[sparky1972]

well if we cant have any snow down here i will take a day like this, we have had blue skys, temp of 4.5c, slight breeze, all in all a craking day, nothing to get to excited about regards snow, tomorrow looks wet and sleety but sunday onwards looks cloudy, chilly but dry

[summer blizzard]

We'll I can't believe how poor the bbc are being! And I cannot believe that temps are forecast to be 4/5c. Expect all snow gone by later!

The bbc say snow showers or sleet tonight and snow showers sat night giving a covering! I bet there wrong on both counts!! Very poor.

I would have thought clear blue skies with snow cover would have kept the air temp v.low. But obviously not.

 

That's the sun for you. 

[Harsh Climate]

Latest GFS is belting so far.

 

Snow for all tommorow morning 

 

[BarnetBlizzard]

Latest GFS is belting so far.

 

Snow for all tommorow morning 

 

 

 

 

 

 

However if you look more closely you can see it only suggests snow for the western half of the region.

 

 

 

[DIS1970]

However if you look more closely you can see it only suggests snow for the western half of the region.

 

 

 

Over high ground.

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

However if you look more closely you can see it only suggests snow for the western half of the region.

 

 

 

Fast forward three hours and you get HC's chart?

[Harsh Climate]

Over high ground.

 

Not necessarily

 

[BarnetBlizzard]

Fast forward three hours and you get HC's chart?

 

Unfortunately not. 

 

 

 

Temps look okay in some western and northern areas.

 

 

 

However uppers look pretty poor for any snow lower than 200m 

[Harsh Climate]

However if you look more closely you can see it only suggests snow for the western half of the region.

 

 

 

 

That's the 4am chart not the same one as I posted ; )