Scotland - Weather Chat

[Frozen Britain]

guys remember your cameras for videos & pics-

 

best of luck with the snow prospects!

Is that a subtle hint Steve that you expect some decent snowfall here?

[moffatross]

Hey, it's winter and time to start posting ski photos.    The 2-3 inches of snow that were still lying in Moffat this morning have mostly been washed away now but there'll be a base left in the hills for the new snow from tonight. Made a few turns on the slopes above Wanlockhead that we're going to be using for the Lowther Hills Ski Club tow yesterday. 

 

https://www.flickr.com/photos/88898381@N02/sets/72157649659082211/

 

Front of hill near Lowther Hills Ski Club's new lift line

 

Skiing over the back towards the Dalveen Pass

[Frozen Britain]

Rain has stopped here but still windy

[blitzen]

 

 

Dipped my toe quickly into the model thread earlier and there is talk of possible Stratospheric warming towards the end of the month.    Would it be possible for some of the more learned posters please explain what this is? and what, if any,  effect it would have on the potential for a cold / snowy winter for us Scots ?

 

Many thanks in advance

I am no expert Gogoslo, however the gist I think is that a warming can cause northern blocking (although this is not guaranteed)  Blocking can then lead to arctic air being drawn south to cause colder conditions at our lattitudes.  It can disrupt and displace the polar vortex  as well.  Usually a time lag though that can be anything from 6 - 3 weeks I think, after any warming.  Could be talking mid January?

Someone with more knowledge will probably explain it better.   You could however pop over to the Strat thread where you will pick up all the information you need.

Edited December 9, 2014 by Blitzen

[SMU]

Is that a subtle hint Steve that you expect some decent snowfall here?

 

GFS has been Very consistent for around 6-7 days ( I posted in the model thread )

 

around 30cm @ 200M across 3 days!!  probably 10-15 @ 100M & 0-5 at sea level -

 

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_06_UTC/72_35.gif

 

Obviously the area covered isn't huge but you get the gist..............

[Ravelin]

Well it's certainly windy outside here but nothing compared to what we've had on many other occasions. The rain band that was moving through earlier skirted to our south so we've not had much more than some light drizzle so far. By the looks of the next band moving in I doubt we'll be as lucky a second time around. Interesting feature showing on that though, a very distinctive line of more intense precipitation that stretches all the way from Northern Scotland down to Northern Ireland.

[LomondSnowstorm]

I am no expert Gogoslo, however the gyst I think is that a warming can cause northern blocking (although this is not guaranteed)  Blocking can then lead to arctic air being drawn south to cause colder conditions at our lattitudes.  It can disrupt and displace the polar vortex  as well.  Usually a time lag though that can be anything from 6 - 3 weeks I think, after any warming.  Could be talking mid January?

Someone with more knowledge will probably explain it better.   You could however pop over to the Strat thread where you will pick up all the information you need.

Pretty much, basically the 'default' winter pattern is a strong polar vortex, which extends all the way up from the lower atmosphere to the stratosphere, which means westerly winds and cold air bottled up over the pole. If you get a warming at the top, which is encouraged by high snow cover and resultant high pressure over Siberia, then it can work its way back down to ground level and force the cold air southwards out of the pole towards us.

The warming itself doesn't always lead to cold here, especially if it fails to propagate downwards, but most of the coldest winters here had at least minor warmings and disruption to the vortex in December and January. It usually takes at least 2 week to see it properly take effect but sometimes you get instantaneous responses, like February 2009, February 1991 and January 2013, which lead to blocking and cold air heading southwards immediately after the warming (usually this is when the vortex 'splits' rather than is displaced off the pole). Page 1 of the strat thread is the best place to get a full explanation, and also an explanation of why it's likely we'll see a Strat warming this winter.

[edo]

Very very windy and chilly here and to be honest more windy than I expected by now....word on the street at the Met is similar to what our own guys on here have said that predicting Friday is a nightmare and there will be a lot of nowcasting....I think Friday and weekend looking potentially better for prospects than tonight into tomorrow and for some especially at altitude those prospects are excellent...just hope we don't see the repeating winter pattern of requiring 200m or I will need to start thinking of moving

[Frozen Britain]

Can someone post links to the charts to look at - fax, temperature, radar, etc?

[LomondSnowstorm]

Can someone post links to the charts to look at - fax, temperature, radar, etc?

Most of the links are in the 'kilted thread' guide at the bottom of my signature, although I'm not sure the link to the mesoscale models is on it:

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=201412090600&VAR=prty&HH=48&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=&WMO= That's for the EURO4, the MO short range, high res. model

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=netwx-sr;sess= That's the netweather short range model based on the GFS

[grifter]

11oC & dank etc. here in Paisley (where I work)

[scott_anthony_glasgow]

Hey guys long time since I have been online in forum. Been that long I forgot my password oh dear. All sorted now. Hope all is well. Looking forward to some interesing weather.

[November13]

I expected the temps to have topped out by now. Still 11.4c in Polmont. Don't think we can get much higher. The front hasn't moved as quickly as the models predicted. Should be about 6pm before it starts to drop off now. Going to be a long night!

[NUT]

OK Squall coming through now I think

[NorthernRab]

Temperature falling away quite rapidly here, down to 6'C from 10'C just two and a half hours ago.

[BurntFishTrousers]

OK Squall coming through now I think

So that's what woke me up!! Wild

[Ceitidh]

Amount of rain falling just now is absolutely ridiculous!!

[101_North]

That squall line looks really impressive on the radar - stretches from the North Sea off Aberdeen to somewhere in the Republic of Ireland!

[Sraigcaife]

Just in from fixing people's boilers and heating.

We've escaped most of the rain so far but it has been very windy.

[November13]

Confirmed on the Glencoe weather station temperatures rapidly falling in the west. It's went from 5.4 to 2.9c in an hour at 1200ft.

[scott_anthony_glasgow]

Squall was a crazy 5 minutes or so. Cleared now. Reasonably calm atm

[grifter]

Traffic Scotland got warning out for Strathclyde, Central/Tayside and SW Scotland Lothian & Borders concerning potential snow to lower levels early Friday morning - meaning most of us will miss it unless you're going to be a lampost jockey and stay up all night, plus on a personal and regrettable note, Inverclyde is not on the warning   I suppose it'e even lucky to be getting these warnings at all so early in the season, especially after the obscenely bad (Not the good type of "bad"!) winter last year.

 

http://trafficscotland.org/

 

 

A period of rainfall is likely to fall as snow over high ground, before transitioning to snow at all levels, during the early hours of Friday morning. Snow may be moderate or heavy at times, and may well last for several hours. Accumulations of 2-5 cm are possible across lower parts of the warning area, with 10-15 cm possible above about 200 m. The public should be aware of the potential of disruption to travel and also the risk of hazardous driving conditions.

Affected Areas

• East Ayrshire
• East Dunbartonshire
• East Renfrewshire
• Glasgow
• North Ayrshire
• North Lanarkshire
• Renfrewshire
• South Ayrshire
• South Lanarkshire
• West Dunbartonshire

Possible effects of snow

• Increased stopping distance
• Reduced visibility
• Increased journey time
• Lane markings obscured
• Obstructions on the road (abandoned vehicles)
• Risk of ice patches
• Snow gate closures

Valid: 12 Dec 2014 - 00:10 to 12 Dec 2014 - 09:00.
Last updated: 09 Dec 2014 - 11:14

Edited December 9, 2014 by grifter

[LomondSnowstorm]

Impressive temperature gradient at the cold front - 10-12C ahead of the front, 4-5C behind:

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=56.383301&lon=-2.883300&zoom=10&wxsn=1

Still a bit of uncertainty RE the low on Thursday night, slightly toned down and further south generally on some of the models but still probably far enough north to affect the southern half of the country, especially if the models are slightly underplaying the low formation:

[lorenzo]

Squall line just rioted through, impressive indeed.

 

[aggy]

Wow WOW WOW the heaviest rain I've seen in a long time unreal stuff