Scotland - Weather Chat

[edo]

https://twitter.com/WeermanAshoka/status/542364484426162176

Storm of the century lol....duped by the express

Edited December 9, 2014 by edodfc

[edo]

Nice pic from Liam Dutton on twitter

[SMU]

Afternoon

 

9pm is the time where the showers will be turning over to sleet & snow, especially over the hills, the 850-1000 HPA thickness is hitting 1290 DAM by then-

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2014/12/09/basis06/ukuk/th85/14120921_0906.gif

 

Also the wet bulb freezing level drops to 100M @ midnight.

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2014/12/09/basis12/ukuk/thfr/14121000_0912.gif

 

So, snow for higher elevations of over 100m between 9-12Am

S

[greendreams]

Hi all, first proper post and hope to see some snow over the next few days for us all. That squall line was impressive and got some radar grabs. Hopefully get some more with lots of pinks and reds as well. Enjoying the thread, great stuff.

[snawbaw]

The squall hit the Fort between 2 and 3 today, it was wild.  Flood alerts for coastal Lochaber so time will tell, let's hope the surge doesn't cause too much damage up Loch Linnhe.  We are in a bit of a lull at the moment, there was even bits of clear sky dotted about.  I don't think the lofty temps of 11^oC were happening in Glengarry today, it was 4^oC at 4.30 tonight and heading south.  

[Norrie]

Crazy rain about an hour ago here. Must have been courtesy of the squall. Hope to see some white stuff before the weekend

[NorthernRab]

Temperature continuing to fall at approx a degree per hour - now down to 4'C

[Benvironment]

Temperature has fallen 3.5C in one hour here, from a high of 9.4C to 5.9C.  On the slide again

[Jo Farrow]

Was 11c here this afternoon, felt weird with the mild air but cold wind

fallen to 8C now as noisy squall line has passed. Glad I wasn't out in that

[LomondSnowstorm]

Cold air starting to move in now, -5C uppers over most of the country at the moment:

-6/-7C by midnight, with, as Steve says, precipitation increasingly turning to snow, particularly above 200m:

Temporarily less cold uppers move in tomorrow morning, increasing the snow line, but gradually as the day goes on the colder air will come back at us:

 

That's when the threat of proper low ground snowfall comes in - temperatures drop away to around or just above 0C from 9pm tomorrow night to 6am Thursday with 'streamers' moving across the country, giving the potential for some decent accumulations:

   

 

And then the real potential comes into play on Thursday night. It's difficult to pin down the track of the low at this stage, but it looks as though the ECM has it tracking roughly on the same path as the pub run last night, meaning snowfall likely for central and southern Scotland:

Difficult one to call, and the latest Met Office forecast seems to suggest that at least some snowfall is likely on Thursday night into Friday, but it could easily end up either ending up too far south or developing a bit more strongly and ending up further north.

 

Also interesting for tomorrow night that the Netweather model has temperatures around 1-2C for fairly modest elevations on Thursday morning, given it sometimes seems to err a little on the high side for temperatures (or at least for DPs):

Lots of precipitation about as well:

 

Edited December 9, 2014 by LomondSnowstorm

[Northernlights]

Back down to 3c here now.

[Hawesy]

Evening all, great to see this thread so busy.

Mild breezy and wet this afternoon, as elsewhere the squall line packed quite a punch at 5pm. Max today was 10.5c, currently 6.8c.

As it was Sunday, should be mostly dry here over the next couple of days though St Andrews might catch a shower or two, Crail less likely to. All eyes then on the feature LS discussed above for early Friday, that kind of set up can deliver even here but I have a hunch it may miss to the south. I never mention it ;-) but it's been 4 years since I had a measurable snowfall so a cm or two on the ground would be nice.

In any case looking forward to some interesting reports over the next few days. Stay safe everyone.

Edited December 9, 2014 by Hawesy

[November13]

5.5c blustery showers. Air felt very chilly when out for my 12k run to Linlithgow bridge and back. Worried about my Aldi icicle lights tonight in the wind.Drumochter web cam looks like the day after tomorrow on traffic Scotland.

[A Winter's Tale]

A pretty horrific winter's day but thankfully things are going to turn seasonal again and I'm feeling a little more optimistic about seeing some snow over the next few days and I think there is the potential for a pleasant surprise. Looking ahead, in the distant future we could end up with something more favourable for blocking to occur by the very end of the month. In over a weeks time however there is a signal for a milder period with Atlantic air and south westerlies rolling on top of high pressure to the South, a similar scenario to my winter forecast.

[sn0wman]

Thread is nicely busy tonight so thought I'd make my first post of the winter

Been watching Thursday night closely on the charts - definitely looks like the best potential so far for accumulating snow in the Central Lowlands. It's one of those set-ups where there could be huge differences in snow totals within a small area. The evolution of the low appears to be quite complex, with high uncertainty on how far north/south it will go. UKMO does look the best for central areas at the moment; kind of reminds me of January 8th 2011, where a similar system gave almost 10cm to parts of Central-Eastern Scotland. Nice to see the MO have an early warning out too!

P.S. huge thank you to LS for keeping everyone updated with snow prospects! Always a very interesting read

Edited December 9, 2014 by sn0wman

[Ravelin]

After a very windy day I took the dog out about 7pm and it was virtually dead calm. Temperature had got down to 3.5C a while ago but seems to have climbed back up to 4.7C just now. Strange.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Cooling down at a modest rate here, about 1 °C/hr. Now 5.3  Â°C.

 

Some showers rattling through but remain cold rain.

[Cheggers]

Wet and wild day, but not long back in from walking the dug, and the temp has plummeted 

[Hairy Celt]

Calm before the storm this evening I guess, although as I write this, a squall passes through. Bitterly cold again already.

[Northern Strath]

Currently sitting just below 1c and after the sad sight of a snow melt and puddles on the lawn today, it's just started snowing again maybe these winds will be strong enough to blow me a lamp post to watch? You live in hope..

Edited December 9, 2014 by Northern Strath

[Northernlights]

Back down to 3c here now.

Just had a heavy wet snow shower currently 0.5c with only a fresh breeze.Moonlit and starry as I type.

[blitzen]

Was just thinking the same Ravelin.....Was out back just making sure nothing was lying around that could turn into a missile.   Also remembered to tape the ship's bell clapper up this time.  It's screwed to the side of the garage.   I think it was during the 'Baw Bag' storm that it sounded as if the Titanic was going down outside!   Anyhoo, gentle breeze, with a full moon and cloudless here at the moment.   Temp 4.4c and dew point 2.3c.   Hard to believe that it's out there waiting to pounce!  Just called my son to warn him that he probably will have some trouble with the bridge tomorrow as he works in Edinburgh.   He never thinks ahead in that respect and couldn't care less about the weather until he opens his door in the morning!   All I got was a yessss mother!

Stay safe everyone. (especially those in the north and west)  I'll probably be on night duty if it gets really bad.   I suspect I wont be alone!

[NorthernRab]

Sleet here at a touch under 1'C.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Thread is nicely busy tonight so thought I'd make my first post of the winter

Been watching Thursday night closely on the charts - definitely looks like the best potential so far for accumulating snow in the Central Lowlands. It's one of those set-ups where there could be huge differences in snow totals within a small area. The evolution of the low appears to be quite complex, with high uncertainty on how far north/south it will go. UKMO does look the best for central areas at the moment; kind of reminds me of January 8th 2011, where a similar system gave almost 10cm to parts of Central-Eastern Scotland. Nice to see the MO have an early warning out too!

P.S. huge thank you to LS for keeping everyone updated with snow prospects! Always a very interesting read

Cheers, that was a superb snowfall here, we lucked out on both the 7th and 8th, with huge snowflakes from the first shower than made it through on the Saturday evening, and ended up with 9 inches by Sunday morning. Uppers were pretty touch and go for that:

 

 

Freezing level around 400m but it was very much touch and go and I recall it turning back and forth between rain and snow further south and west:

Not many stations above 3C for the northern half of Scotland away from the immediate Atlantic coast, even Lewis sitting around 1-2C, with DPs pretty widely close to 0C, further south and east temperatures still holding around 5-6C but steadily dropping.

You can see pretty clearly on the satellite chart the transition between the mild Tm dominated frontal setup we saw today and the squally polar airmass heading in behind, with a smorgasbord of wintry showers following in behind

 

Another point which hasn't really been mentioned is the potential for thunder, particularly the further west you go - fairly impressive CAPE values off the west coast tomorrow and into Thursday:

 

[Ross B]

Torrential sleet here at the moment! I expect a huge dumping of snow here over the next few days as I'll not be around much.