Scotland - Weather Chat

[LomondSnowstorm]

Rain here. Don't think the milder.............blip? (I think it's a brief blip) is too far away

 

It's been cut down to a very short blip - less cold air in place by tomorrow morning:

 

Cold air back in place by tomorrow evening:

 

 

If NS can avoid a proper melt then he'll be back to Jim Murphy level cold and snow (or maybe even Tony Blair) by Monday morning   snow possible into central areas too:

 

Marginal snowfall possible on Monday night too:

 

Another cold northwesterly potentially incoming by Friday:

 

 

 

Seems like in the short term milder periods are being shortened and colder periods lengthened, in spite of the overall NH pattern still not being that favourable for prolonged cold - yet. That may change by Christmas though, with signs from the ensembles that the Alaskan ridge will strengthen once again, leading our Azores high to become a mid Atlantic high and, eventually, a Greenland high:

[damianslaw]

Yes Scotland should stay mostly in cold or near average temp air for the next few days, only southern parts briefly on Wednesday creeping into milder uppers. A renewed polar maritime blast looks likely by Friday. The hills should maintain a generous cover with plenty more top ups. After a sluggish start to the ski season, the ski resorts will be very happy with the outlook and hoping the snow base holds firm for Christmas with a change to quieter settled cold conditions as some of the models are hinting at.

[Ravelin]

Well according to my weather station the temp topped out at 3.1C but that might have been a short blip because every time I looked at it in the afternoon it was sitting around 2C. This morning everything was frozen solid and icy, even yesterday's rain had frozen in droplets on my car bonnet and roof. By mid afternoon the grass in the back garden was still frozen solid. Bright day with little wind though so although it felt chilly it wasn't excessively cold.

[grifter]

Just mild gunk here nothing inspiring whatsoever. With my pessimistic hat on I think the central West area will not really see anything much this December from NWerly apart from sleet at the very best, and most snow over higher ground. But still anything better than last year.

[Norrance]

Temp rising quite quickly this evening, now 3.3C from 1.3C about 2 hours ago.

Plenty snow around with altitude. Took the dog out for a walk to Loch Kennard in Perthshire but had to turn back as the snow was a bit deep for it (spaniel). Roads not too good in places with lots of ice particularly from Dunkeld to Kinloch on the way to Crieff. My daughter took some nice photo's on her iPod but hasn't, downloaded them and I haven't a clue how to.

Edited December 13, 2014 by Norrance

[Frozen Britain]

I have to say that, thus far, this winter is turning out to be rather disappointing despite the potential in the stratosphere with key ingredients favourable for HLB. It is disappointing in terms of snow fall and deep cold - snow fall is dependent on where you live and the stratosphere not living up to our expectations in terms of some decent warming moving down the stratosphere or from the bottom up in terms of Wave 2 activity.

 

Agree with the comments already made about the mild junk - mild in terms of temperatures not cold enough to produce a decent fall of snow and dump of the white stuff.

[Cheggers]

Just been oot and temp certainly has risen, and it seems to be that misty rain muck that just sticks to you, but ice on the drive holding for now.

[edo]

Did LS say greeny high....I think he did..... RAMP!!!!!! Norrance plug the ipod into the pc using the Usb cable and simply open your file explorer and select the ipod from the file tree then click through the folders and you will eventually see the pictures and you can do a copy and paste....alternatively you may just receive a prompt asking what you want to do with this device when you plug the ipod in and select download pictures... Or just ask the kid to do it I find they know best

Edited December 13, 2014 by edodfc

[Norrance]

Did LS say greeny high....I think he did..... RAMP!!!!!! Norrance plug the ipod into the pc using the Usb cable and simply open your file explorer and select the ipod from the file tree then click through the folders and you will eventually see the pictures and you can do a copy and paste....alternatively you may just receive a prompt asking what you want to do with this device when you plug the ipod in and select download pictures... Or just ask the kid to do it I find they know best

Thanks Ed. Will probably go for the last option but she's off oot partying this evening.

Temps still rising 3.9C now with a hint of dampness in the air.

I see next weeks mild interludes are shorter in duration and not as high as earlier predictions had indicated. Also next weekend is now looking cold again.

Edited December 13, 2014 by Norrance

[moffatross]

Wee 10 mile ski tour in the Southern Uplands today. Very nice powder stashes, but poor visibility most of the time. Big full depth avalanche discovered en route, recently self-triggered. Cool descent to the M74 by headtorch light.  

 

https://www.flickr.com/photos/88898381@N02/sets/72157649336482618/

 

A 2 metre probe fully submerged at about 250 metres along the run-out

 

Powdery fun.

 

 

On the headtorch descent to the motorway

[snawbaw]

Twelve days of winter doth not a season make. So far we've had mist, fog, freezing fog, air frosts, ground frosts, sheet ice, rain, hail, sleet, snow (lying snow), thunder snow, cool breezes, absolute hoolies, arctic blasts  - all in less than two weeks. We don't want to get all samey, that just wouldn't be kilted weather would it?

[101_North]

Mild and miserable!

Edited December 14, 2014 by 101_North

[edo]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^same as bungle.....yukkkkkkk

[Guest]

Did LS say greeny high....I think he did..... RAMP!!!!!! Norrance plug the ipod into the pc using the Usb cable and simply open your file explorer and select the ipod from the file tree then click through the folders and you will eventually see the pictures and you can do a copy and paste....alternatively you may just receive a prompt asking what you want to do with this device when you plug the ipod in and select download pictures... Or just ask the kid to do it I find they know best

 

LS says Greenland High, GFS 00z from this morning says "Yes Sir LS, you want some of this?".

 

Up until now Greenland has only been covered by its "fake" high pressure, something to do with the altitude of the land but LS or Lorenzo can fill in the technical details. All I know is if the high is blue/purple on the GFS it's not a proper high as shown here:

 

 

However, later on in the GFS run we have some warm air getting pumped up the west of Greenland, this leads to a proper Greenland High as shown by the light-up to yellows and greens around the high in the two frames below. This is deep in F.I. so the chances of it coming off as forecast are slim. It does indicate that the GFS is sensing that conditions are becoming more favourable by 300+ hours for the formation of a Greenland high, so it's a very important step in model watching as we haven't seen much, if any, of this type of output even deep in F.I. for quite a while.

 

[edo]

Cheers CMD was literally just looking at the charts and about to post this cherrypicked one saying looks like LS got the mystic meg outfit on... A very nice little greeny....I sense the shift has started this morning although still looking like will be banking on a NW PM feature to deliver on thebig day....considering a punt on Glasgow to have a snowflake of the trends in FI continue

[Hawesy]

Morning all,

Interesting runs - thanks Catch, Edo. Plenty to keep an eye on around the Christmas period. Before then the current pattern continues with cool/cold Polar Maritime incursions interspersed with short milder spells. We're in the latter this morning, 7.5c mild and breezy here in Crail. Colder air will filter west to east later today.

[Weather-history]

Anyone from southern Scotland remember this one from 15 years ago today?

[Benvironment]

I've upped sticks to Kishorn and this is the view of the Applecross peninsula this morning.  Stormy, mild, and the snow line rising quickly.  Sounds like it'll be coming down quickly this afternoon though   Too stormy to get any walking done, sadly.

 

[Hairy Celt]

I've upped sticks to Kishorn and this is the view of the Applecross peninsula this morning.  Stormy, mild, and the snow line rising quickly.  Sounds like it'll be coming down quickly this afternoon though   Too stormy to get any walking done, sadly.

 

P1060591.jpg

 

Aaaah... Beinn Bhan in winter... brings back some memories of the eastern corries from er maybe 1990 or so.

 

It's getting a bit hairy out here today so f nose what it must be like for you!

[Hairy Celt]

Anyone from southern Scotland remember this one from 15 years ago today?

 

Nice jacket - Maggie Thatcher style I reckon.

 

edit - just to put out of any doubt - I'm not offering the late fuhrer any praise or style points here, just making a puerile and pointless comment on how weather people's dress sense has changed...

Edited December 14, 2014 by Hairy Celt

[Northernlights]

Very windy with some sharp rain showers and sunny intervals .Bits of snow still lying in shaded areas courtesy of frozen ground .Currently  4.3c after 6.0c at 6.00am this morning so falling.

[Northern Strath]

Consistently lovely pics Benvironment, if you're gonna up sticks Kishorn takes some beating

Fairly dramatic loss of snow cover but it is thankfully still intact. LS reliable as ever, we had a wee shower 15 mins ago and it was snow. "Tony Blair" cold has returned

Currently 1c

Edited December 14, 2014 by Northern Strath

[gsteruk]

Jeez the bbc outlook for central for the next 5 days has really taken a tumble. Rainy dreariness for the foreseeable - hope they are as wrong as the usually are...

Edited December 14, 2014 by gsteruk

[LomondSnowstorm]

Cheers CMD was literally just looking at the charts and about to post this cherrypicked one saying looks like LS got the mystic meg outfit on... A very nice little greeny....I sense the shift has started this morning although still looking like will be banking on a NW PM feature to deliver on thebig day....considering a punt on Glasgow to have a snowflake of the trends in FI continue

I had an incredibly frustrating experience punting on Belfast last Christmas (the odds for there relative to the amount of falling snow they get are usually pretty good compared to the likes of Aberdeen etc) - with 30 minutes left of Christmas the temperature there was at 3/1C and the radar showed a shower incoming. Unfortunately it didn't quite manage to turn so I never got it but given how wretched last winter was I was pleased I was so closed to getting it right(although sadly Ladbrokes didn't reward my forecasting effort  )

At the moment it's a difficult call for the day itself, with the GFS para having the cold coming in on the night of the 23rd but milder air coming in from the southwest on the big day itself:

 

 

Potential for some leading edge snowfall on the breakdown though, and if we got the angle of attack right we might end up with a proper frontal snowfall. 

Anyway, Steve Murr's published his 'universal snow scale' for this winter so the aim will be to see how high we can end up seeing. I'm sure some of us will have reached 13 already (proper blizzarding) and certainly two winters ago we had multiple 13-warranting events for higher ground but the highest I could reasonably claim on that is 12, on 18th January 2013 in Edinburgh, 8th January 2011, once or twice in November/December 2010, 26th/27th December 2009 and 23rd December 2009. Probably a few others before that too and some that might have made it to 13, maybe the 12th March 2006 and the late December 2000 blizzard when we were in Glasgow but it's difficult to remember that clearly.

So far this winter we briefly got up to a 9 on Wednesday night but looking at those charts with hints of greeny highs I'm hoping for at least an 11 before winter's out

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82021-the-updated-smurr-snow-scale-2014-15-with-vidoes/

[Northern Strath]

Currently snowing. A 10 on the Steve Murr scale