Scotland - Weather Chat

[gsteruk]

when do we reckon some proper cold will come back to central? really dreary and wet at the mo - cold yes, but not....cold u know?

[LomondSnowstorm]

Some very cold rain in Edinburgh when I left there this afternoon and some snow on the tops of the Lomonds.

I'm actually off to Switzerland tomorrow until just before Christmas (although fortunately not for skiing as I'd probably be better going to Aviemore given the state of the Alpine snow pack this winter ) so I'll not be able to post charts in the next few days. Fortunately there's been no model drama so far, other than everything largely panning out as planned.

Decent GFS and GFS (P), with both potentially bringing quite a nasty snowstorm, but the main thing is that the GH is still there, and in a helpful place for us:

 

UKMO doesn't go out that far, but crucially the lows look like phasing far enough east to allow a northerly flow behind:

[Guest]

12z ECM is close but no cigar, looks like a west based NAO which isn't much use to us...at first

Edited December 19, 2014 by CatchMyDrift

[Ravelin]

12z ECM is close but no cigar, looks like a west based NAO which isn't much use to us...at first

Common consensus on MO thread regarding the 12Z ECM is WTF! Even to my untrained eye it looks quite bizarre in its evolution.

Other models are looking good, back to the flip side of the flip flop cycle of the last day or so.

[lorenzo]

Yeah - agree with that, very bizarre looking ECM, as others have noted not an evolution I have ever seen either.. ? 

 

ECM doing a #madfriday

[Ravelin]

Yeah - agree with that, very bizarre looking ECM, as others have noted not an evolution I have ever seen either.. ? 

 

ECM doing a #madfriday

Last Friday before Xmas so obviously the ECM is this year's out of control drunkard at the models Xmas party. It gonna wake up with one hell of a hangover tomorrow, if it even makes it home.

[lorenzo]

Last Friday before Xmas so obviously the ECM is this year's out of control drunkard at the models Xmas party. It gonna wake up with one hell of a hangover tomorrow, if it even makes it home.

 

Interesting goings on at the Weather model Xmas night out..

 

ECM Deterministic ignoring the advice of its 51 colleagues who are all clustered at a 'cool' wine bar - decides to head onto another boozer on it's own where it subsequently makes a successful pass at NOGAPS , as a result churns out nonsense all weekend.

 

GFS Parallel spends the evening at the dartboard knocking back the pints in true lad style, bragging how it managed to get all of ECMs useful coding at a recent upgrade and is awaiting a promotion sometime in January.

 

Meanwhile MOGREPS stands at the bar quaffing bond style cocktails with the NASA and FIM models flipping out quips about £100m supercomputers and cunning plans for world domination.

 

GEM has gone home early having come out dressed for a nice summer evening in accordance with it's 850 temp profile.

 

The Chinese model hasn't arrived at the party yet and is expected some time in March.

[NorthernRab]

Exceptionally heavy sleet and rain here with very gusty winds.

What's happening up on the strath NorthernStrath?

Edited December 19, 2014 by NorthernRab

[Ravelin]

Exceptionally heavy sleet and rain here with very gusty winds.

Same here, but without the sleet.

[Hairy Celt]

One of the wettest cold & wet spells I can remember... thoroughly unpleasant with flooded fields, roads, streets, etc. Temporary lull just now so our moat can retreat enough to let Ms HC back in from one of her festive jollifications.

[snowy owl]

Still blowin a hoolie here! Feeling cold

[Guest]

Does anyone have a dream set-up in their heads? The one they know would deliver every snowy dream they ever wished for to their current back door? This morning I give you my dream set-up for where I live now, thanks to the GFSP for spitting this out and highlighting it in perfect detail. Shame it's never going to happen:

 

 

BOOM!!

 

 

BANG!!

 

 

SNOWED IN!!

 

The snow as progged by this morning's GFSP 00z would last perhaps a day or so here, with winds gusting to 50mph+!!

 

The bog standard GFS 00z has a different take, progresses the low much more vigorously and everyone down the east coast either gets blown away or washed away in the storm surge:

 

 

Edit: In the interests of everyone's safety and security we'll take the first option from the Parallel, not that I'm being totally IMBY and wanting snow of course

 

Edit2: ECM 00z, UKMO 00z, GFS 00z all fairly similar up to 144hrs. Plus my earlier excitement about the GFSP was on yesterday's 12z

Edited December 20, 2014 by CatchMyDrift

[Hawesy]

Morning all,

We've been fortunate enough to be sheltered from all the showers here and as a result it's been dry both yesterday and overnight. Currently 3.1c.

Just been looking at the temperature anomalies for December so far. They range from +1.1c at Prestwick and Macrihanish to -0.4c at Inverbervie. So for many of us December has been close to average thus far. Let's see what the finals 10 days bring!

Edited December 20, 2014 by Hawesy

[edo]

Why do we always believe

Why do we get sucked in

I'm never looking past T96 again

Why is it so hard to get cold to this country

I'm taking a break from the models

That's the summary of the charts this morning courtesy of the MO thread just to save you going in....all centred around how a shortwave is handled in 7 days which yes is also beyond T96....given the met office updates and the difficulties of handling a transition to cold I think I will remain optimistic and see what this afternoons ECM brings

[lorenzo]

Well we will only have half the model output to worry over this weekend, GEFS and NCEP having some dodgy problems with getting the data out. First last night the parallel got hauled offline, now the ensembles are trickling out if at all.

 

JMA is worth keeping an eye on , dark horse of a model that one..

[Hairy Celt]

Strat thread doesn't make for happy reading this morning - something's spooked 'em.

 

I don't usually resort to CAPSLOCK but

 

CAN THE RAIN JUST STOP FOR A WHILE AS I NEED TO GET OUT AND DO STUFF??? THANX SANTA!

 

edit, later... yay, it worked, I got my cycle ride...

Edited December 20, 2014 by Hairy Celt

[mistyqueen]

Afternoon Peeps! Calm and cool up here, 5.8c, pressure 1017. We went out to our local coal merchant this morning, 10 bags now in bunker. Now that we are fully set up with coal, wood and heating oil, I fully expect a heat wave to arrive. I haven't yet looked at any charts today....need I bother?

[Stormeh]

Hi guys, I don't post much, I only really post when it's snowing or when we have thunderstorms or severe gales

 

The models have been all over the place lately, hopefully things will get sorted out soon in the favour of a cold and snowy spell. Keep yer heads up people its only the 20th December, it may not be a white Christmas but I am sure we will be awarded with a memorable cold spell sometime over the next couple of months!

[NorthernRab]

Afternoon Peeps! Calm and cool up here, 5.8c, pressure 1017. We went out to our local coal merchant this morning, 10 bags now in bunker. Now that we are fully set up with coal, wood and heating oil, I fully expect a heat wave to arrive. I haven't yet looked at any charts today....need I bother?

 

Think everyone had a few too many jars last night and are now wallowing in dread over a small area of low pressure occurring over 5 days away.

Edited December 20, 2014 by NorthernRab

[A Winter's Tale]

A cold Christmas is looking quite likely but it probably won't be a white one. After that the outlook is still uncertain with large swings in the model outputs over the last 72hrs. Details will change so it is hard to judge what to expect as we end the year but some sort cold spell with a northerly looks likely, albeit currently it seems more like a toppler rather something more prolonged (perhaps getting more pronounced riding with a west based -NAO would have been better slightly further down the line rather than having high pressure sinking further east).

It does seem like synoptic patterns have been and are struggling for supremacy across the NH with a weak, but stubborn PV, resulting in us getting average temperatures with nothing pronounced interns of mild/cold, and changeable conditions giving us a fair amount of wind and rain and some muted chilly/cold spells which have delivered some snowfalls to speak of but haven't been potent enough to be remembered for.

I suspect January, to begin with, could be the same but at some stage I'm just hoping for something more quiet, settled and crisp and a more potent polar maritime incursion or northerly toppler to deliver something meaningful interms of snow for all if us. The troposphere could still help us out in January interms of blocking, but I suppose we have to be patient as it looks like a SSW won't happen until the end of a January. We can still very much get snow and cold without a SSW and I sometimes think it's best not to be overly reliant on the stratosphere - an SSW in itself doesn't guarantee blocking patterns falling into place on this side of the NH and when they do, sometimes it's more to benefit of those further south and East, ironically sometimes a strong jet stream, and powerful PV over Greenland can deliver a fair amount of wintry weather to Scotland.

If the SSW does take place, then I suppose we are overdue a really memorable February for cold and snow. The issue I have is the stronger sunlight, longer daylight, colder SSTs and perhaps Scandinavian blocking delivering more elsewhere in Britain. But hopefully in the end it will all be worth it.

[frogesque]

We are off to Skye on Monday. Cottage booked for a week over Christmas away from the rellies, inlaws and outlaws. Bit of snow on the Cuillins would be nice but not so much we can't get there - don't mind getting snowed in once we are there though  :smiliz64: 

 

How's the forecast looking looking - too stressful to search through model threads? 

[A Winter's Tale]

We are off to Skye on Monday. Cottage booked for a week over Christmas away from the rellies, inlaws and outlaws. Bit of snow on the Cuillins would be nice but not so much we can't get there - don't mind getting snowed in once we are there though  :smiliz64: 

 

How's the forecast looking looking - too stressful to search through model threads? 

For the big day it should be cold bad settled, maybe the odd snow flurry. After that details will change but the GFS 12z looks pretty interesting in the period between Boxing Day and New Year's. Potentially quite a snowy scenario across Scotland but moreso further east.

[frogesque]

Thanks AWT! Looking good.

[grifter]

This Winter starting to feel more and more like last year's with plenty of rain, cold but stubbornly stuck around the 3-4oC mark and just depressing dank. Think I'll bodyswerve this weather stuff for a week or so and just hope something happens maybe after xmas. I think constantly watching these models so far out and trying to guess is very frustrating and can leave you feeling bitterly disappointed day after day. To be honest you guys that do this day in and out you must have plenty of resolve to keep doing it!

 

Here's hoping for something to make it feel wintry soon.

Edited December 20, 2014 by grifter

[Polar Maritime]

Looking good up the back corries today, Some great photos from the SAIS Blog  

 http://lochaberblog.sais.gov.uk/2014/12/better-weather/