Scotland - Weather Chat

[NUT]

That was definite thunder. Rather unsurprising considering how black it is

[sandstorm2]

Hi folks, just had a clap of thunder, gusty wind and a temp of 6.5.

 

Merry Christmas to everyone, high hopes of some of the white stuff next week.

[NUT]

Hail stiorm now

[Hairy Celt]

Flightradar24 

https://santatracker.google.com/#tracker

 

Cripes he'll have to feed his reindeer summat special if he's going to be here in time!

 

Meanwhile.... heavy blustery showers this morning. Ms HC out running (officially, I think there may be some 'refreshments' later) and younger HCs haven't emerged from respective scratchers yet so Santa's able to get stuff done. At last :smiliz19: ...!

 

GFS seems still to be having trouble even in the short to medium term.  Could do with knowing whether the sledge needs fettling for the weekend.

[Northernlights]

Very wet and windy here with squally showers and currently 3.5c.  Hills very white over 900 feet.

 

A very seasonal feel to Christmas this year .May I wish you all here on the Scottish thread a Very Merry Christmas.

[Ross B]

Just got some pretty big hailstones here!

[NUT]

Just got some pretty big hailstones here! IMAG0425.jpg

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/20520-sam-0758/

 

There's just some of the hail from that nasty little shower that went through. Thunder was loud!

Edited December 24, 2014 by NUT

[Hawesy]

Of course coastal Fife isn't within the Met Office warning area - even if things align perfectly for the Central Lowlands we'd likely pull in some modified air off the North Sea which would prevent any snowfall near the immediate coast. There's a good reason snowfall is a rare and special event hereabouts!

Anyway a seasonal and interesting few days of festive weather coming up! A very merry Christmas to all on this thread!

[Cheggers]

Hail stiorm now

Not long drove through this in Polmont, was almost a white out out was that heavy, 

 

this was it passing through...

 

Saw a Sea King fly overhead heading towards Ochils about 25min ago.

Edited December 24, 2014 by Cheggers

[lorenzo]

A sporty drive home through a strong convective shower, heavy rain and lots of hail. Cracking cell overhead just now and just caught a rumble of Thunder.

 

Satellite beautifully backlighting the stream at sunset time.

 

Nice lively day !

[spindrift1980]

From the Chief Forecaster's assessment on the MetO website:A deepening depression is expected to affect the UK on Friday Saturday. There remains greater than average uncertainty regarding the track of this depression, but the most likely scenario is for this depression to track eastwards across the UK rather than just north of Britain. The exact track of this depression is critical to snow risk, especially for the Central Belt of Scotland with snow here more likely should the centre of this depression track across the southern Uplandsor northern England.

From an IMBY point of view, would be nice if the last bit happened, but not holding my breath!  At the very least, some hills somewhere should get a pasting though - an interesting period ahead.

 

Merry Christmas to all on the thread!

Edited December 24, 2014 by spindrift1980

[LomondSnowstorm]

Hey folks, been back since yesterday night (much as getting the train was generally more relaxing than the plane the 10 minute changeover in London and almost missing the Eurostar after lunch in Paris were pretty good exercise to say the least!). Spent most of today, at least the part I was awake, getting last minute presents and wrapping for tomorrow.

A chance of a white Christmas for some of us tomorrow, and if you've got a bet on Aberdeen I'd say you've got at least a 50/50 chance of meeting the criteria for success.

Best looking charts are tomorrow morning, with a chance of some snow for Glasgow too:

 

950s patchy further south but you'd expect at least some sleety at Aberdeen from that:

Air temperatures look good away from the southwest, a chilly day overall with maxima only about 3-4C for most:

 

NMM looks similar, with very light showers at other points in Aberdeen increasing the probability of a flake, and this chart points to a tantalising scenario for Glasgow backers as they're glued to the radar at 11.30pm hoping for a shower to inch a bit further east:

n 

As for the bigger snow risk which the warning is out for, it looks like the threat will come in a few different parts. Firstly the initial shortwave, which the modelling has moved further south, which brings a distinct risk of frontal snow on its northern edge (we have to hope the orientation doesn't bring too much maritime air in off the North Sea):

 

Some real snow potential from it, surface conditions touch and go but with a favourable time of day, little wind and heavy precipitation I think it could be interesting for many, moreso to higher ground and inland but accumulations possible anywhere away from the immediate coast:

  

 

Slight changes will make a big difference though, a bit further south and we could end up with nothing (although still cold the potential for snow showers from the east or further shortwave development) and a bit further north and the back end easterly becomes potentially more potent, but the frontal stuff a bit more dicey.

The stuff from the east could be interesting given how slack the flow looks, and how there's likely to be a northerly component to it, with even modest uppers around -6/-7C giving the potential to deliver the goods:

    

 

After that, an HP dominated outlook of some kind, with low heights over southern Europe preventing the high sinking and giving the potential for deeper cold to arrive from the east at some stage (if the high hangs around long enough then, combined with the strat warming, we're likely to see it trying to make another attempt at retrogression to Greenland). However, at the surface temperatures are likely to be very cold, with the potential for ice days right through from Sunday to New Year:]

 

 

So, in summary, cold with a chance of some snowfall, more marginal the closer to the east coast and to sea level you are but with the chance of some accumulations everywhere else, followed by a likely dry cold setup before either the Atlantic attempts to move back in or a holding pattern which could lead to more of a 2009/10 or November/December 2010 style cold spell deeper into January if the vortex gives up the ghost completely.

[DR(S)NO]

Just wanted to quickly post my Best Wishes for a Happy Christmas to everyone on the thread....been a pretty challenging week with the wee man on a ventilator but given good festive news as he fought back from his infections and is now out of ITU

So Christmas in hospital but not as bad as I feared....I'm pretty sure Santa still visits there.

Best wishes to all

DR(S) NO

[LomondSnowstorm]

Just wanted to quickly post my Best Wishes for a Happy Christmas to everyone on the thread....been a pretty challenging week with the wee man on a ventilator but given good festive news as he fought back from his infections and is now out of ITU

So Christmas in hospital but not as bad as I feared....I'm pretty sure Santa still visits there.

Best wishes to all

DR(S) NO

Glad he's on the mend Dr, all the best to you, him and everyone on here for Christmas  :smiliz19:

[CoastRainbow]

Happy christmas to you all , we have had hail and thunder today just need some snow. Wee poem ,,,

Snowflake

Created from dust

Water formed crystals

Each one unique

A billion ways

To say precision

Falling down slowly

Blown in the wind

Some find each other

Clinging as they touch

Descending taken

In gravity to

The earth where

They began

[SW Saltire]

Good post LS, took the words and charts right out of my mouth (not really haha)

I've been avidly following the met office's 5 day forecast.

At first the usual predicted 6c rain, it always plays it very conservatively (whether this is pure raw UKMO predictions or what I'm unsure).

Anyway, it's since consistently brought the temperatures down and we now sit at 3c and rain and snow predicted and it's just all over the place.

So, with a bit of luck and a slight westward correction 50 miles would do to be safe (IMBY) - which won't be known until t-12 or closer - quite a few of us, including me could see at least falling snow, if not a light dusting.

I feel with warm ground temperatures, very wet ground and with the heaviest precipitation having started to depart before the really cold air digs in, that a dusting is fairly realistic on low ground

High ground could see much more than that, even 100m could make a difference.

Fingers crossed.

More importantly, the longer-term looks promising with it finally turning drier and frosty. Considering winter 2013-14 brought very few frosts, I for one will be pleased for some nice frosty, crisp, sunny weather, perhaps even some hoar frost could occur with low minima - especially given any snow cover.

Let's hope the Scandi high and undercut occurs but that means hoping on board the model rollercoaster all over again...

[cscrim]

Delighted to hear that news Dr (s)no.

A very merry Christmas to each and everyone of you. Enjoy your day and what ever weather is thrown at you in the coming few days.

[chemikal]

Posted Christmas videos for a week last year in the run up to Christmas This was the most popular.

 

'The Futureheads' 'Christmas Was Better In The 1980's'.

 

Enjoy and Merry Christmas.

 

 

 

 

 

[Guest]

Latest UKMO & FAX charts have the low barely brushing the south of Scotland, it looks like it isn't going to happen. What a shocker

[edo]

ACH well as long as pulls in the cold air in behind and we maybe get some convection...to be honest I wouldn't take notice of the track until about T48...

Great news Dr Sno sounds like the wee man is a fighter....merry Xmas to all of you and thanks LS for that thorough summary

[Guest]

ACH well as long as pulls in the cold air in behind and we maybe get some convection...to be honest I wouldn't take notice of the track until about T48...

 

 

I think the southerly track might be a better option as it allows colder uppers in and possibly some showers along the east. The frontal rain/snow looked dodgy below about 200m. We'll see, it  may well end up as the blizzard of all time for lowland Scotland (c'mon Santa....please!!!)

[edo]

Just realised is t48 I have Xmas fever ......traumatised by realising we have 8 binliners worth of presents.,..where the fleck are we gonna put it all

Edited December 24, 2014 by edodfc

[edo]

be ironic after all your comments on Kelso if you got buried....you never know

[101_North]

Happy Christmas folks! Have a great day tomorrow :-)

[SW Saltire]

I think the southerly track might be a better option as it allows colder uppers in and possibly some showers along the east. The frontal rain/snow looked dodgy below about 200m. We'll see, it may well end up as the blizzard of all time for lowland Scotland (c'mon Santa....please!!!)

I know.... My hopes weren't raised too much as the heaviest precipitation was over your side (sorry haha).

The caveat i'd apply is March 2013. I remember worrying about the mild air to the South West of the low reaching here as the snow was central belt t-96 ish

Then by t-72 it looked like Lanarkshire with me ok ish.

By t-48 it was barely making the border, with people in the MOD stating that Cumbria and even Yorkshire would miss out and somewhere near Birmingham would be about right. A fair call at that time as the low was stalling earlier and earlier against the block with each passing run.

However, in the end Arran got buried and Cumbria upto basically me did very well too. I had 8- 10 inches roughly (it drifted so very hard to accurately tell), 15 miles NW (where I went to school) 4 inches - despite being higher up - and 15 miles further on that road at Sanquhar they had no snow at all just a couple flakes in the wind apparently.

Fine margins and you never know but it does look like the Pennines will take the brunt of the snow

Edited December 24, 2014 by SW Saltire