Scotland - Weather Chat

[blitzen]

Aye Innes.   When the likes of Steve Murr starts to put in an appearance again then for me that is a heads up.  Encouraging though that the snowiest winter ever (you know the one I mean} didn't show face until the 21st Jan down south and I think the 23rd up here.   Signs weren't encouraging then either.  Not that we will get anything like that but it shows you just cannot predict so far out.   The thing is, folks, me included, want winter to be snowy from December to March and of course in this country it just won't happen.   However, I can think of a few where a couple of weeks of cold and snow made them memorable.  We live in  hope!

[Guest]

Complete nonsense to write off the whole of January.   Just the usual doom and gloomers on the MOD making these comments.   Fact is, it doesn't take long for something unexpected to appear.   The models certainly do appear to have struggled more this season than I can ever remember.

Some areas down south (midlands) experienced an 8" snowfall on Boxing day and that certainly wasn't expected very much in advance.   We will just have to hang on and bite the bullet meantime.

Anyhoo, after a beautiful sparkling frost last night, it is now a bit dampish and dreich here sitting at 5.6c/4.9c.   Next frost shot I think is around Friday?

 

Aye, and as I said before, if that Boxing Day low had trailed through Scotland and left a dump of snow from Dumfries to Dunbar then we'd all be looking at things a little differently. We only missed out by a few hundred miles. I feel as if a few days away from model watching would be a good idea

[November13]

I think it's the warm uppers Innes! Definately in the last 10 years or so. I have noticed we can be sitting at 2c at ground level and it's still rain that comes out of the sky. Something is happening higher up, and it makes snow a very rare occurrence these days. I have a snow shovel I have used twice in the last 2 years! That to me tells it's own story.

 

That's why I think we have our best chance from a northerly blast, get rid of the mild uppers!

 

[Norrance]

A bit of a change today with temps rising from -3C to +5C overnight where they have stuck all day. It has been dry but with some light cloud about and a Westerly breeze.

As far as the models go it appears to be jam tomorrow again. We were due to be in the freezer by the end of November, then early and mid December then the end of December and now late January. Though this one Is not as bad as last Winter I seem to remember the same happening then.

I think too many people including a few of the respected MT posters pick an appealing permutation from the models then construct persuasive and very believable arguments as to how those will come about. Too many of us believe then that these are the likely outcomes, forgetting that they are just one outcome out of many and that all sorts of obstacles such as short waves appearing from nowhere etc can get in the way. I am trying to be more realistic this year but even so have fallen into the trap on a couple of occasions. Having said that last weeks frosts and rime with snow nearby have been very pleasant indeed.

Here' to the New Year. Hope it's a guid yin.

Edited December 30, 2014 by Norrance

[Northernlights]

Much milder dry bright day at almost 8c currently 5c but the mud has returned

On a different topic just been out to fill car up with fuel and met the strangest convoy on the A96 3 police cars escorting 2 ambulances with all blue lights flashing but no sirens going east towards Elgin. Jokingly said to Mrs Northernlights that it must another ebola case and it turns out it may be as I have just read it on the BBC website.http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-30630768

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Is this the mild period?

 

I've got an air temperature of 2.5 C and falling, with a slight ground frost re-developing.

 

We are in something of a frost hollow and I guess the ground is still frozen. Was below -5 last night. Certainly, frozen puddles struggled to melt today, even though the air temp was up to around 5 C in the middle of the day.

Edited December 30, 2014 by scottish skier

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Much milder dry bright day at almost 8c currently 5c but the mud has returned

On a different topic just been out to fill car up with fuel and met the strangest convoy on the A96 3 police cars escorting 2 ambulances with all blue lights flashing but no sirens going east towards Elgin. Jokingly said to Mrs Northernlights that it must another ebola case and it turns out it may be as I have just read it on the BBC website.http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-30630768

 

Interesting.

 

It's just I intercepted this earlier:

 

 

Also, was walking the dog near the border this afternoon and came across this being put up in a hurry:

 

 

Something's up...

 

[Norrance]

Is this the mild period?

 

I've got an air temperature of 2.5 C and falling, with a slight ground frost re-developing.

 

We are in something of a frost hollow and I guess the ground is still frozen. Was below -5 last night. Certainly, frozen puddles struggled to melt today, even though the air temp was up to around 5 C in the middle of the day.

Got down to 2.3C after tea here but since then has risen. Now 3.7 C and on the up. Max today was 6 C and min last midnight was -2.7C.

[grifter]

Are these winters really worse than what we used to get? I mean I always remember snow not make an appearance until late Jan/Early Feb here only to be uncerimoneously washed away in 2 weeks worth of torrential downpour. In saying that when it did appear it was always a good day or two dumping but now when we do get snow it seems like very hit and miss. Maybe things seemed bigger and more pronounced when I was younger The last proper 80s style dump we had here was in Jan 2011 and I missed it (bleeping bleep). I seemed to have an uncanny knack of being in the wrong place at the wrong time that year.

Edited December 30, 2014 by grifter

[Guest]

Are these winters really worse than what we used to get? I mean I always remember snow not make an appearance until late Jan/Early Feb here only to be uncerimoneously washed away in 2 weeks worth of torrential downpour. In saying that when it did appear it was always a good day or two dumping but now when we do get snow it seems like very hit and miss. Maybe things seemed bigger and more pronounced when I was younger The last proper 80s style dump we had here was in Jan 2011 and I missed it (bleeping bleep). I seemed to have an uncanny knack of being in the wrong place at the wrong time that year.

 

It's interesting you say that about snow not making an appearance until late Jan/Feb, I'd also have sworn that pre-Xmas was never very snowy and the best snow always comes later on in winter. I'm sure the proper stats tell a different story, maybe it's an Inverclyde thing I don't remember much snow in Jan 2011, I was still in Kilmacolm back then but had a lot going on so maybe I've forgotten about it?

 

There's definitely something in the "it always snowed more when I was younger" idea, your memory compresses all the snow events from different years into one big happy four month long winter every year when the reality is far removed from this. I'm sure there's a technical name for it, but I'm not that clever

 

Edit: Usually the 00z ECM starts coming out on Meteociel at about 6am, this morning there's no sign of any 00z.

 

Maybe the ECM has given up? "Och, it's the same pish as yesterday, I'm staying in ma pit!", said the ECM supercomputer...although it'd be more likely to be French and say something like "Ooo la non. C'est le fromage de goat, je suis returner a la mon coucher".

 

Same old charts so what's the point in processing new ones? I don't think winter's over by any manner but this waiting game isn't a lot of fun.

Edited December 31, 2014 by CatchMyDrift

[mistyqueen]

Howdy folks! Now, I know it's milder than of late, but one of my weather stations ( El Cheapo Cheap! ) is currently showing an outdoor temp of 30c. Yes, that is correct, 30c. I had to go and check it several times just to make sure that there wasn't a wee decimal point in there somewhere, but no, it seems to be stuck on 30c. Just replaced the batteries a couple of weeks ago, so maybe it's only fit for the bin now. Anyhoo, mild, windy and downright dreich here today. Hope you all have a very happy new year when it comes!

[Hawesy]

Morning all,

Currently cloudy and 6c after an overnight low of 1.6c. Looks like a mild start to 2015 for all of us before colder, showery weather moves in on Friday. Thereafter it seems like things return to a pattern similar to what we saw for much of December.

With just one day to go December is almost bang on average with the Leuchars mean 3.5c, -0.1c of an anomaly. Much the same story across Scotland with a slight positive anomaly towards the south and west and slight negative anomaly in the North East.

All the best for New Year to everyone on this thread.

[Big Innes Madori]

Howdy folks! Now, I know it's milder than of late, but one of my weather stations ( El Cheapo Cheap! ) is currently showing an outdoor temp of 30c. Yes, that is correct, 30c. I had to go and check it several times just to make sure that there wasn't a wee decimal point in there somewhere, but no, it seems to be stuck on 30c. Just replaced the batteries a couple of weeks ago, so maybe it's only fit for the bin now. Anyhoo, mild, windy and downright dreich here today. Hope you all have a very happy new year when it comes!

Hi MQ

Well the light frost that we had here last night is gone,but it's nea 30 Deg!

Was a striking Red Sky earlier but looking outside now barring the leafless trees it could be late August, a far cry from the beautiful crisp days earlier this week!

Again this morning the MT is choked full of negativity and again this is also coming

from the more respected contributors. Another lengthy post yesterday from Tamara and now it looks like she is also struggling to see anything other than Zonality for the UK???

Aye things can and do change,but it may take some time by the looks of things.

Big Innes

Edited December 31, 2014 by Big Innes Madori

[snowy owl]

Think I have the answer to this ... I'm gonna move to buffalo lol snow forecast for the next week!

Getting blowy here and grey but at least it'll be milder for party goers and first footers

As for the charts well who knows. There are still some snow possibilities for the hills etc keeping optimistic that things will turn around in the New Year.

Best wishes for 2015 xx

[Polar Maritime]

Happy Hogmaney to all  

 

 Wish i was up there this time to see in the New Year, It's always a fantastic/friendly atmosphere. 

[Frozen Britain]

Good to see the rain will have cleared through for the bells and all the party-goers. It was looking like it would be wet just a few days ago. Happy New Year to everyone and all the best for 2015. Here is to a decent cold spell before the end of the winter where we all get to join in the fun.

[grifter]

It's interesting you say that about snow not making an appearance until late Jan/Feb, I'd also have sworn that pre-Xmas was never very snowy and the best snow always comes later on in winter. I'm sure the proper stats tell a different story, maybe it's an Inverclyde thing I don't remember much snow in Jan 2011, I was still in Kilmacolm back then but had a lot going on so maybe I've forgotten about it?

 

There's definitely something in the "it always snowed more when I was younger" idea, your memory compresses all the snow events from different years into one big happy four month long winter every year when the reality is far removed from this. I'm sure there's a technical name for it, but I'm not that clever

 

Edit: Usually the 00z ECM starts coming out on Meteociel at about 6am, this morning there's no sign of any 00z.

 

Maybe the ECM has given up? "Och, it's the same pish as yesterday, I'm staying in ma pit!", said the ECM supercomputer...although it'd be more likely to be French and say something like "Ooo la non. C'est le fromage de goat, je suis returner a la mon coucher".

 

Same old charts so what's the point in processing new ones? I don't think winter's over by any manner but this waiting game isn't a lot of fun.

 

Come to think on it it might have been Jan 2010 but still more sure it was 2011. I arrived back from Edinburgh - where I also missed the big fall they had - only to return and also miss the big dump we got here. It was truly exceptional, and easily surpassed anythin I'd seen before here. I know what you're saying about it always snowed more/was sunnier when I was younger etc. I think it's due to the fact that you forget the crap and remember the good times. I only remember long hot summers when I was a bairn and it seemed like summer went on for about 6 Months but that obviously can't be true. I'm also starting to wonder exactly what I did the times it was cold/rain etc. I honestly can't remember lol there wasn't that much on TV and no PCs or fancy games machines although it might have been the C64 and lego!

[LomondSnowstorm]

Not massively encouraging charts medium term (although certainly you wouldn't bet against something developing given there's a fairly decent warming over Greenland and at least temporary split of the strat vortex in the not too distant future) but certainly not all that mild either - pink starting to reappear on the EURO4 by Saturday morning:

Hints of some low ground snow too Friday afternoon, although typically a warm sector comes through by evening to change snow back to rain:

 

 

After that, the Atlantic looks to move back in but it may not be an entirely straightforward process - the vortex split higher up looks to cause disruption further down and we *could* finally see some blocking developing around Scandinavia to disrupt the lows:

 

Not so favourably orientated yet but it could develop into something a bit better down the line, perhaps something like this:

While it's a bit speculative, the evolution does stem directly from the vortex split in the nearer timeframes and looks like it could be a direct response to the strat warming, not to mention that ridging in Scandinavia would likely lead to extra top-down warming which could finally finish off the vortex.

We've definitely seen the effects of the positive background signals delayed and muted by a combination of a weirdly nina-ish atmospheric pattern over the tropics in spite of the weak El Nino and above average ice coverage over the Kara Sea, which has muted the Siberian high signal predicted by the high Snow Advance Index, but with the stratospheric vortex being weakened by major warmings as we speak there's still more than enough time remaining to turn this winter around.

[Ross B]

Thanks Ls as always. Fergie is teasing in the mod of some surprise interesting weather possible on Saturday oop North...

[Bullseye]

Talk of interesting period coming up on Saturday (snow I am guessing) on MOd Thread Fergie first to tweet about this tonight,.Whats the odds we are in firing line like last week to then come 24hours (Friday) before Midlands area becomes into firing line and we miss out?

[Ross B]

Exactly my thoughts bullseye! It'll go south or be heavy rain

[Guest]

Thanks Ls as always. Fergie is teasing in the mod of some surprise interesting weather possible on Saturday oop North...

 

GFSP 12z does have snow on Saturday up north, up in the north of England, perhaps a few flakes in the far south-west of Scotland.

 

Edit: Perhaps I'm in a better mood tonight but the charts don't look as bad as they did this morning Still nothing awe inspiring but nothing to be downbeat about either I don't think.

Edited December 31, 2014 by CatchMyDrift

[Ross B]

GFSP 12z does have snow on Saturday up north, up in the north of England, perhaps a few flakes in the far south-west of Scotland.

 

Edit: Perhaps I'm in a better mood tonight but the charts don't look as bad as they did this morning Still nothing awe inspiring but nothing to be downbeat about either I don't think.

I've given up looking - just a quick scan of the mod each day at the moment ! There was some further north than that from what I saw in the mod I think..

[Northernlights]

Frost still coming out of the ground in shaded areas today so very wet/muddy on surface in these areas so all in all feel December has been quite average winter weather for this location with many more air frosts than last year and a seven day spell of snow lying in shaded areas.

Very mild and windy today Mrs Northernlights washing drying well and ground in exposed areas starting to dry.

Wishing all here on the Scottish thread A very Happy and Prosperous New Year. Going out to the community Bonfire later and will have to wrap up well as we have gale force winds and 8.5c

[over_the_rainbow]

Happy New Year to you all!

 

Im poorly as is my littlest baby, so a quiet one here......but whether you are out having a two day long Hogmanay or a horlicks with Jools - have a good one!