Model Output Discussion 1200 hrs 15/11/14

[blizzard81]

The GEM has just had a big upgrade so past verification is no indicator for future performance.

A big test coming up for this model then. It certainly needed an upgrade.

[Barry12]

The ECM Is following the UKMO!

 

 

[Winter Cold]

Is this the ECM following the UKMO tonight? Low going due south and better profile our east?

 

[Tom Jarvis]

Well the ecm 144h chart looks very similar to the ukmo unable to post charts as on my phone

[weirpig]

The ECM Is following the UKMO!

 

 

It  certainly is   spot the difference.  lets see if it evolves the same way as the Gem 

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0

 

UKMO ECM + GEM identical at 144- look for the ridge link up at 168 from Northern Scandi to the Arctic high- that would be a wave 2 link.

S

[blizzard81]

The ECM Is following the UKMO!

 

 

Yeah, the ECM operational mood swings are more extreme than my son's.

[snowice]

Is this the ECM following the UKMO tonight? Low going due south and better profile our east?

 

Ecm ukmo

Ecm ukmo look like Roger rabbit

[TSNWK]

ECM 168 let down me thinks..

[Midlands Ice Age]

 

It certainly has.

 

Moses himself couldn't part the vortex any wider.

 

gemnh-0-240.png

 

LOL,

That is just about a perfect split for the UK, based upon a blog by Lorenzo in the strat thread.....

Damm it I cannot get the link to work!!

It has come back by about 3-500 miles since this morning and with another 200 miles will be purrfect.

MIA

[TSNWK]

ECM 168 let down me thinks..

Yep sorry folks, ECM not playing ball tonight after a little teeze around 144, at 192 Azores high encroaching, December 1st will be mild and calm if this verifies.

[bryan629]

Tonights UKMO is significant because its the first time so far this season that a projected pattern change has got into the UKMO firing range at 144-

 

The strong jet streak heading due south towards SW spain allows heights to build NW towards Svalbard...

 

As long as the ECM sees this similar trend ( & the 12z GFS ENS are trending this way) then things are starting to look very interesting in 8-9 days....

S

Hi Steve , 

Not being disrespectful but you said to watch for mid month... unfortunately things did not pan out as you expected, 

This time round i`m with you ... not long now!! 

i don`t think we have to wait long for a cold shot.. reasons for this are as follows.... UKMO had what looked like an outlier run with almost cross polar height the other day and tonight brought back almost  the same image .....

 

  

 

This is significant as the Gem is doing its best to join the party but at a much later timeframe. 

 

the Gfs operational runs are carp ( misspelled on purpose) 

 

Here are some samples from the ensembles from the Gfs captured this morning from the 00z, no need to wait for the 12z.

 

 A snapshot of  pressure up and down the UK 

 

Aberdeen                                                    West Yorkshire                                                          kent                                                     

 

A lot of scattering but the trend is upwards for pressure to rise.

 

I dont think for a minute the atlantic will come close to tanking in, heres an image i captured a couple of days ago of the polar vortex eyeing up the UK and finding its facing an iron fist !!

 

..GFS Style 

 

 

How long until the GFS backtracks ?

Edited November 22, 2014 by bryan629

[Summer Sun]

hmm the change from t144 to t168 is huge on ECM, seems a bit quick for such a change in 24 hours

 

 

Lets wait and see what the ensemble shows later on post t144

[Barry12]

If we could get the Azores high moving south instead of east, it probably would of been like the GEM. The ECM is only the best until day 6, so it wouldn't be that unusual for the GEM To be right and the ECM wrong.

Edited November 22, 2014 by Barry95

[SMU]

Well an annoyingly cr*p ECM past 144 with the model forcing the atlantic through East & no high link up...

 

More negative tilt needed at 144.!

 

will see what the overnights bring

S

[LomondSnowstorm]

I think the problem comes from Nick S' shortwave phasing upstream - the ECM, while having a far better looking profile this side of the Atlantic at +120, still phases the lows in the US, which means we don't get as much amplification in the Atlantic and more of the jet energy goes north instead of south.

The JMA tonight also follows the GEM and UKMO upstream and has a more negatively tilted trough as well at +144, leading to a very interesting +192 chart:

At least the ECM has decent heights over the Arctic, a trend which most of the models seem to be picking up on in one way or another this afternoon.

[TSNWK]

Where's your Money Folks?

At day 9/10 we have the best charts of the season so far from GEM against any absolute horror show for cold by the ECM at the same range..

Wise money has to be ECM, but that is some switch after 144

[blizzard81]

hmm the change from t144 to t168 is huge on ECM, seems a bit quick for such a change in 24 hours

 

 

Lets wait and see what the ensemble shows later on post t144

I must admit, I was thinking exactly the same. Any of the seasoned experts on here think that rapid change in 24 hours is possible ?

[Summer Sun]

Full info on GEM's upgrade here for anyone interested

Edited November 22, 2014 by Summer Sun

[snowice]

Full info on GEM's upgrade here for anyone interested

interesting read I wonder how it will verify in the weeks to come might be an interesting model to keep a eye on as well as Gfs ecm ukmo?

[knocker]

I must admit, I was thinking exactly the same. Any of the seasoned experts on here think that rapid change in 24 hours is possible ?

 

Well I'm not a seasoned expert but it's not that big a change. The Portuguese low filling and slipping south allowing the Azores ridge to move east and orientate further NE.

Edited November 22, 2014 by knocker

[ANYWEATHER]

Ecm has been drinking all day and gone totally bonkers with its output. It really needs to sober up, so I will bin that run, on the other hand Gfs has been consistent with its runs for a while now with the Atlantic in full control ,aided by a very strong jet stream from the later days of next week.... Looking for deep cold at the moment ,is like looking for the proverbial gold at the end of the rainbow, its early days and we are yet to get to Winter,;;; it will come,,,,!  The gfs plays some colder weather in the equation so perhaps some pyrotechnics as we inherit some cold rPM air and snow for upland areas of the Uk. . All in all, a benign period of weather ,although certainly not settled , Then  the Jet stream really fires up!

Edited November 22, 2014 by ANYWEATHER

[Barry12]

It's been a huge switch to much more interesting charts on this evenings runs. We have the GEM, JMA, UKMO and ECM all looking similar at day 6, its day 7 onwards where the differences start to appear. Tomorrow will be very interesting to see where things develop, if we get the GEM solution we would could even be looking at possible cold as soon as day 8, it would not take too many changes at all from the ECM to have the same evolution as the GEM. I think the most important thing tomorrow will be to see what the UKMO does. The GEM is not the most reliable, especially after day 6, and the ECM as we know seems to over amplify everything.

 

 

 

 

The GFS and GFS P on the other hand are completely different with the low heading SE, instead of directly south like on the other models. This ends eventually with the Atlantic winning the battle with the block, this morning we all wanted the ECM to follow the GFS, now its the other way round.

 

 

 

While the ECM is pretty bad for cold past day 6, it is still far better than the GFS as we still have the block in place at day 8 (others might disagree) but in my opinion as long as we have the block we will have a chance of something more interesting developing as the models this evening have shown. I am confident that the ECM will be far better tomorrow, assuming it still has a similar pattern at day 6. Not as good as the GEM this evening, but I still think it will be much better, with us ending in a cool/cold continental flow. If it does, it will be perfect timing - just in time for winter.

 

 

 

Hopefully we end up seeing charts like these tomorrow from the ECM:

 

 

Then it will be game on!

Edited November 22, 2014 by Barry95

[Barry12]

Ecm has been drinking all day and gone totally bonkers with its output. It really needs to sober up, so I will bin that run, on the other hand Gfs has been consistent with its runs for a while now with the Atlantic in full control

 

Why has it gone totally bonkers? at day 6 it has support from the UKMO, GEM and JMA. If anything the GFS is the odd one out...

[Catacol]

Getting interesting. Trop output beginning to wobble as the models try and get a grip as to what is happening far aloft. ECM have a vortex split at day 10 at 100hpa with a very meridional look over Europe and a signal for low heights over the Med:

 

 

and that split is also present as high up as 30hpa

 

 

30hpa temps over the arctic just starting to rise - hitting average now and judging by warming forecasts over the pole set to rise to above average soon:

 

 

Significant wave 1 assault continues - as it has for a while:

 

 

and we have an ongoing signal for some wave 2 activity too, though not all that strong admittedly:

 

 

MJO generally forecast to be weak, but slowly heading through phase 4 into phase 5, with a December anomaly weighting here showing continued support for heights to our NE:

 

 

Conclusion? Stalemate and more stalemate. I'm not seeing a renewed strong westerly pattern as Gibby suggested earlier - instead we are marooned between a trough and a block for a while yet. However for me the long term signs do not point to a significant renewal of atlantic energy. But we need to watch and wait for a little longer and see out this lull. What will follow is still up for grabs.

Edited November 22, 2014 by Catacol_Highlander