Model Output Discussion 1200 hrs 15/11/14

[KTtom]

We do seem to have been before IMHO, the east versus west battle with neither giving an inch, and come January nothing has changed...yes plenty of potential but for the UK we need a winner...fairly quickly!

[nick sussex]

We do seem to have been before IMHO, the east versus west battle with neither giving an inch, and come January nothing has changed...yes plenty of potential but for the UK we need a winner...fairly quickly!

I agree, a win for cold here would set a positive signal for the winter.If the PV throws everything it currently has at Europe but still ends up losing the battle then that can only be a good thing.

[fergieweather]

And they are in line with what i posted that the block is expected to slowly decline, which senior forecasters have predicted.

Have they? I've not seen anything worded so bullishly... it's the status-quo that's causing headaches for medium range forecasters.

[Banbury]

We do seem to have been before IMHO, the east versus west battle with neither giving an inch, and come January nothing has changed...yes plenty of potential but for the UK we need a winner...fairly quickly!

Well we don't really...................do we??? We are still in Autumn and plenty of time to go and allow the cold to get going over Europe, not much on show there at the moment but get the block in place I am sure it will build

[IDO]

I like the run from ECM. It gives every chance for the CET to be the highest of the year. Anomalous positive 850s throughout most of the run and December starts nicely:

 

[knocker]

The P is much the same

Courtesy weatherbell.com

 

[nick sussex]

I like the run from ECM. It gives every chance for the CET to be the highest of the year. Anomalous positive 850s throughout most of the run and December starts nicely:

 

ECM100-240-4.GIF

I think you might be disappointed there, 850 anomalies in winter time aren't a great guide off a continental flow.

[ANYWEATHER]

A big Jet stream powering up from North America for next week , looks as though it will increasingly bring some potential for stormy conditions later on. The ecm and gfs 12z suite is certainly not that mild either.  The blocking high way to the northeast of the Uk will do no good for cold but enhance some potential storms later next week. We need the Scandi high to be centered right over that region to do any good for deep cold, and as I mentioned last night ,high pressure over Svalbard would certainly trigger cold for us. I really don't see a lot of change from last nights run, the Atlantic at the moment is the runner so cold and stormy is the likely outlook tonight away from the first half of next week....

Edited November 21, 2014 by ANYWEATHER

[Banbury]

I think you might be disappointed there, 850 anomalies in winter time aren't a great guide off a continental flow.

Single digits for more Eastern parts I should imagine Nick

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Watch the GFS tone down on the low near Iceland at T96 in the 18z

[mushymanrob]

Have they? I've not seen anything worded so bullishly... it's the status-quo that's causing headaches for medium range forecasters.

True it is causing headaches and ive said that its not a given that the block will decline as have everyone else. However there has been comments from senior forcasters that the block is probable to decline. Michael fish in his broadcast for one. Of course this is based on current outputs and could change.

But my point is based on pinning too much hopes on the everchanging op outputs, saying something like 'the block is more westward on this run' might be a valid observation but in the bigger picture doesnt mean much without support.

Personally i dont pretend to know better then the experienced pros, if they, and the models suggest the block is more likely to decline, even if it is slow, then id have thought thats the most likely option. No, its not certain, dont get me wrong here and as long as theres an eastern block a cold evolution is possible.

Personally id prefer something drier regardless of temps, so an easterly would suit me fine!

[blizzard81]

I am intrigued by the control run on the ECM ensembles. It follows the OP with regards to temps but

it is much wetter. Does anyone know what the control run shows? I am thinking BA maybe the man for this question?

 

 

 

Edited November 21, 2014 by blizzard81

[mushymanrob]

Ps... Surely the expected vigorous jet would eventually break the block? Isnt that what experienced forecasters suggesting?

[chionomaniac]

Ps... Surely the expected vigorous jet would eventually break the block? 

In a word no!

 

It is far more complex than that. Do you remember the split vortex across the Atlantic the other year? The jet stream fired across the Atlantic but as soon as it reached the split it practically disintergrated. The strong Scandi block is there for a reason - it fits very well with previous similar analog years and high SAI years. The fact that the UK is at the battleground between the block and trough is very comforting for those who expected to see this, this November.

[bluearmy]

I am intrigued by the control run on the ECM ensembles. It follows the OP with regards to temps but

it is much wetter. Does anyone know what the control run shows? I am thinking BA maybe the man for this question?

 

 

 

PLUIM_06260_NWT.png

 

its more mobile than the op and rather than disrupting the trough se, it takes it through the country and to our east/ne. (closer to the 00z).  

 

all in all the 12z ecm extended ens maintain the pattern with some sublte diffs - lower heights into the med getting a bit further east. canadian low uppers go through week 2 so the jet should drop in intensity. anomolously high uppers become mainly confined to scandi and nw russia by the end of the run.  

[blizzard81]

its more mobile than the op and rather than disrupting the trough se, it takes it through the country and to our east/ne. (closer to the 00z).  

 

all in all the 12z ecm extended ens maintain the pattern with some sublte diffs - lower heights into the med getting a bit further east. canadian low uppers go through week 2 so the jet should drop in intensity. anomolously high uppers become mainly confined to scandi and nw russia by the end of the run.  

Many thanks BA. In that case, I hope the control is wrong.

[mushymanrob]

In a word no!

 

It is far more complex than that. Do you remember the split vortex across the Atlantic the other year? The jet stream fired across the Atlantic but as soon as it reached the split it practically disintergrated. The strong Scandi block is there for a reason - it fits very well with previous similar analog years and high SAI years. The fact that the UK is at the battleground between the block and trough is very comforting for those who expected to see this, this November.

Fair play, taken on board.

[nick sussex]

The ECM ensembles show good support for some trough disruption into central southern Europe with a clustering of ensembles with easterly components however what we're currently missing is a decent cold pool to be advected westwards.

 

If the block holds it might take a second attempt especially as the high isn't really favourably orientated. Before then though theres an awful lot of runs to get through and quite a few hurdles.

 

After a traumatic morning for cold lovers an upturn this evening, long may it continue and lets hope the upstream pattern will play ball to at least get to the trough splitting which is still well into FI.

 

We have been here before with the ECM, even though it has some support from the JMA and the ECM ensembles we best take a more cautious view!

[lorenzo]

Following on from Ed's comments, here is our November Composite in advance of more charts to follow and the Winter forecast being completed this weekend, particularly relevant to the ebb and flow UK Battleground and the Atlantic vs.Block debate. 

 

 

November to date

 

Quite encouraged to see such a duel as fits well with the projection - even where from run to run it is endlessly frustrating watching the core of the heights tempt one way or the other from day to day. 

 

[Cloud 10]

its more mobile than the op and rather than disrupting the trough se, it takes it through the country and to our east/ne. (closer to the 00z).  

 

all in all the 12z ecm extended ens maintain the pattern with some sublte diffs - lower heights into the med getting a bit further east. canadian low uppers go through week 2 so the jet should drop in intensity. anomolously high uppers become mainly confined to scandi and nw russia by the end of the run.  

 

Very encouraging to see those anomalies over the Mediterranean in the day 10 ensemble means,which as you mention,should diminish those high upper temps and cut off the scandi high,much like the composite from Lorenzo.

 

Edited November 21, 2014 by Cloud 10

[Whether Idle]

Have they? I've not seen anything worded so bullishly... it's the status-quo that's causing headaches for medium range forecasters.

The status quo...what you're proposing is that the battle between the air masses goes on and that means we are always in with a chance of a wriggling front dumping a lot of rain or nothing upon us.

A headache indeed and no fast track to cold.

[shaky]

Blooming hell!! Gfs has nearly a part of that pv heading straight for the uk!!

[Geordiesnow]

18Z looks about one of the worse set ups if you want too see cold weather in the near future, mild southerlies pumping all the way to the pole, a firing up jet, PV fairly organised and yet again the UK is in the yellows with fairly mild temps.

 

UKMO is by far the most interesting but its on its own... ECM throws up its usual interest in the later stages of its run but honestly, it feels like pulling teeth and the most likely scnaro would be the Atlantic influencing the weather and due to the positioning of the jet stream, you be very lucky if we see much in the way of polar air. 

 

Bear in mind just how warm the SST's are, you will need a pretty darn cold easterly for it to deliver, much rather have Northerlies at this time of year but that is a long long way off. 

[throwoff]

18Z GFS showing so many blobs on snow risk from 200+

 

First time I have seen it this year, won't come off of course but it has made me smile to see it!

[Barry12]

18Z looks about one of the worse set ups if you want too see cold weather in the near future, mild southerlies pumping all the way to the pole, a firing up jet, PV fairly organised and yet again the UK is in the yellows with fairly mild temps.

 

At day 8 the block is stronger than on the 12z

 

 

Also it would be far from mild in quite a chilly NW flow