Model Output Discussion; into 2015

[Frosty.]

Ecm 12z ensemble mean is showing what would turn into very cold zonality, something Similar to January 1984 which was a snow showers fest. Chart posted further up the page. I think the models are beginning to sniff a colder pattern for the UK in the not too distant future.

Edited January 3, 2015 by Frosty.

[bobbydog]

Hi Ba Sorry what is WAA

its what you say when every model shows the perfect greenland high at +48hrs

WAA!!!

[Mucka]

Hard to take the 18z output seriously when blows the Azores high up to joke levels by the mid term. 

Okay, that is OTT, it just annoys me.

 

Fergie, do you know what is tweaked within GFS from run to run in the starting conditions?

Edited January 3, 2015 by Mucka

[Captain Shortwave]

Hard to take the 18z output seriously when blows the Azores high up to joke levels by the mid term. 

Okay, that is OTT, it just annoys me.

 

Fergie, do you know what is tweaked within GFS from run to run in the starting conditions?

Nothing wrong with it to be honest.

GFS

Parallel

UKMO

GEM

ECM

Strangely enough it's the ECM with the weaker high, the GEm is the same as the GFS and the UKMO is further south due to the stronger westerly jet and more southerly tracking low.The ECM develops a cold pool at day 3, which none of the models has picked up on and this weakens heights east of Iberia.

 

GFS looks potentially stormy as the jet starts to shift south on a west to east axis during week 2, the GFS (P) is slower but looks like heading the same way. Potentially a case of batten down the hatches by mid-month. Lets see what fun can be found later on.

GFS op just ends up settled under a mid-latitude high.

Edited January 3, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[Mucka]

Nothing wrong with it to be honest.

GFS

Parallel

UKMO

GEM

ECM

Strangely enough it's the ECM with the weaker high, the GEm is the same as the GFS and the UKMO is further south due to the stronger westerly jet and more southerly tracking low.The ECM develops a cold pool at day 3, which none of the models has picked up on and this weakens heights east of Iberia.

 

I was a bit OTT but the AH ridges in more strongly than on any other output if you check comparisons 138h. Same with the GFSp and I know it will be back to normal come the 00z.

Run to run variability and all that but they are run with different parameters I reckon or the starting conditions are tweaked as with the ensembles as they have their own characteristics. Maybe I am imagining it though so I will post again when it is more obvious.

Edited January 3, 2015 by Mucka

[Frosty.]

18z op shows reloads galore of cold air from the north during low res, just when you think it's all over, it isn't. Once again wintry solutions from mid month, a theme which is gaining momentum.

Edited January 3, 2015 by Frosty.

[Captain Shortwave]

I was a bit OTT but the AH ridges in more strongly than on any other output if you check comparisons 138h. Same with the GFSp and I know it will be back to normal come the 00z.

Run to run variability and all that but they are run with different parameters I reckon or the starting conditions are tweaked as with the ensembles as they have their own characteristics. Maybe I am imagining it though so I will post again when it is more obvious.

That ridge has been modelled like that for day, so to me there is little point worrying about it, despite the initial fears, it doesn't last long before it deflates somewhat and the jet aligns west to east. I suspect a stormier spell for a time during week 2 before the jet eases somewhat, how things transpire remains up in the air, but as the GFS op shows, it doesn't mean a snowy picture.

More settled and cold at the surface rather than something truly wintry.

 

Edit - Parallel going the same way

Edited January 3, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[Mucka]

That ridge has been modelled like that for day, so to me there is little point worrying about it, despite the initial fears, it doesn't last long before it deflates somewhat and the jet aligns west to east. I suspect a stormier spell for a time during week 2 before the jet eases somewhat, how things transpire remains up in the air, but as the GFS op shows, it doesn't mean a snowy picture.

More settled and cold at the surface rather than something truly wintry.

 

For sure CS but I'm not worried about that being a trend, quite the opposite. Check the 00z tomorrow and compare (that will be 132/138) and if it isn't further South at that stage I will eat the hat I don't have. 

 

Also expect the pattern to be further West again in FI.

Edited January 3, 2015 by Mucka

[Downpour]

Uncle Barty or Jack Frost?

Only time will tell.

[nick sussex]

Is everyone still awake? It's hard going watching this output as any changes will take what seems like forever to arrive. Maybe NW should give out free ProPlus to keep us awake as we suffer the tedious early timeframes!

 

Any change to colder conditions looks like being at least ten days away, and I suspect alots riding on the MJO forecast. Given the trends then theres likely to be some cool down after the exploding PV and Azores high love in finally recedes but as to proper cold and snow the juries still out.

[TEITS]

Precisely...!!

From a forecasting perspective I find charts at +312 more rewarding because of the greater challenge. Where is the fun in forecasting general trends at say +144 when generally speaking the models have a good handle at this time frame. I do think the art of forecasting is being lost by the over reliance on computers.

 

Whilst some are wary of recent GFS runs I am not and remain confident of the change I highlighted earlier.

Edited January 3, 2015 by TEITS

[knocker]

It's difficult to credit some of the stuff the GFS (P) has come up with today.

http://weather.graphics/gsm/ygfs_t1534_global.php

[damianslaw]

Is everyone still awake? It's hard going watching this output as any changes will take what seems like forever to arrive. Maybe NW should give out free ProPlus to keep us awake as we suffer the tedious early timeframes!

 

Any change to colder conditions looks like being at least ten days away, and I suspect alots riding on the MJO forecast. Given the trends then theres likely to be some cool down after the exploding PV and Azores high love in finally recedes but as to proper cold and snow the juries still out.

 

 

Yes we've been here many a time - all par for the course when it comes to model watching in a mobile atlantic set up - changes tend to occur when least expected in these kind of set ups and the tendency on average in any year is for the atlantic to weaken through January as oppose to strengthen.

 

I agree though quite a tedious period coming up most probably for anyone hoping for reliable signals of a pattern change away from the mobile atlantic set up, particularly at a time of year when 'cold snow lovers' are desperately searching for such signs. Such types might be best refraining from looking at every updated run, and take a peek from time to time over the coming days and concentrate on overall trends which suggest less in the way of milder conditions dominating as we enter the second part of January with a more southerly jet and stronger influence for colder conditions to invade from the NW - February could be a whole different kettle of fish as well.

[nick sussex]

Yes we've been here many a time - all par for the course when it comes to model watching in a mobile atlantic set up - changes tend to occur when least expected in these kind of set ups and the tendency on average in any year is for the atlantic to weaken through January as oppose to strengthen.

 

I agree though quite a tedious period coming up most probably for anyone hoping for reliable signals of a pattern change away from the mobile atlantic set up, particularly at a time of year when 'cold snow lovers' are desperately searching for such signs. Such types might be best refraining from looking at every updated run, and take a peek from time to time over the coming days and concentrate on overall trends which suggest less in the way of milder conditions dominating as we enter the second part of January with a more southerly jet and stronger influence for colder conditions to invade from the NW - February could be a whole different kettle of fish as well.

I might just re-locate to the moan thread until further notice! lol Agreed a cool down is probably likely mid month onwards but  if it just delivers some PM slush then it will be a let down. We live in hope that we can find some amplification and at least a decent northerly or ne flow. Please MJO stop faffing about, you know you want to go to phase 7 and 8?

[Daniel*]

Sorry guys for my absence the last few days but am in RUH hospital in Bath after developing a kidney stone over Christmas. All's well though and after a couple of days of excruciating pain I'm on the mend and should be back doing my reports within a few days. TBH though doesn't look like I have missed much. At least your all giving me something to read in my convalescence.

Gibby - Posted on TWO he'll be back soon

[Mucka]

For sure CS but I'm not worried about that being a trend, quite the opposite. Check the 00z tomorrow and compare (that will be 132/138) and if it isn't further South at that stage I will eat the hat I don't have. 

 

Also expect the pattern to be further West again in FI.

 

Pass the salt. 

 

Good morning.

 

UKMO and GFS op in good agreement about the potential storm around day 6 but GFSp has it much further North.

 

 

Into FI.

 

 

Well it's a pattern change, just not a snowy one.

This potential pattern change being in deep FI is a double edged sword.

If the charts are full of eye candy then there is plenty of time for it to go wrong but conversely if they are not to our liking there is plenty of time for them to improve.

Also the ensembles and anomaly charts are a better guide than single  Operational runs at this range.

Edited January 4, 2015 by Mucka

[snowangel32]

Pass the salt. 

 

Good morning.

 

UKMO and GFS op in good agreement about the potential storm around day 6 but GFSp has it much further North.

 

 

Into FI.

 

 

Well it's a pattern change, just not a snowy one.

This potential pattern change being in deep FI is a double edged sword.

If the charts are full of eye candy then there is plenty of time for it to go wrong but conversely if they are not to our liking there is plenty of time for them to improve.

Also the ensembles and anomaly charts are a better guide than single  Operational runs at this range.

Wow what a high big differences last few runs sense a change coming and the models haven't got a handle on it yet. I do hope that chart dosen't verify though that would take some shifting. As ever more runs needed.

[Mucka]

Wow what a high big differences last few runs sense a change coming and the models haven't got a handle on it yet. I do hope that chart dosen't verify though that would take some shifting. As ever more runs needed.

 

Yes a lot more runs needed.

At this stage there isn't much of a signal for a Greenland high but a strong signal for a MLB to set up somewhere over or West of the UK.

Very early days but from what we have seen so far I think any deep cold (should it happen) will come later toward last week of Jan  with a rather messy transition with a MLB before we finally get the right conditions for WAA into Greenland. 

 

I guess we will just have to wait and see what develops next week. 

At least it does look as though we will going into a colder zonal pattern later next week.

[knocker]

I remember 40 years ago everything the Met Office provided was free of charge. Public funded, yes and part of the MOD Budget in those days. The boss, Dr Mason was a free spirit and innovator to make the weather service open to the public. Indeed by 1970, two weather shops opened to the public, one in Manchester and the other in London. Both staffed by members of the weather centres in the cities. In my time at Manchester, the public could walk in off the city streets, chat with the forecasters, view all the charts available at the time , including the rainfall radar charts and 5 day forecast charts. The DWR North Atlantic Charts were available by subscription and the only cost was the postage. So yes , the British Met Office offered a great public service , free of charge, a long time ago now.Of course, cost cutting in the late 70s due to severe economic problems put paid to this open and free service. What I conclude to is : I feel the open face of the Met Office in those days provided a better public service, Knowledgeable, free and a telephone chat away to the expert likes of Ian Mccaskill and dare I say it a younger John HoLmes in those days.

C

 

You forgot two things in that assessment. The tiiming and cost of opening weather centres was a mistake, I think there were twelve in total but am open to correction on that, as it coincided with the rise of independent weather companies with Noble Denton leading the way.I remember well the discussions regarding closures. It was no longer a level playing field and hasn't been ever since and the METO couldn't compete using the old structure with the advent of more advanced technology. The independents could do the job at a fraction of the cost. Thus a commercial arm had to be created. Put simply the staffing costs were astronomical and in the modern age could not be justified.

 

Just out of interest the cost of running eight radiosonde stations alone was £2 million a year but now satellites have arrived they aren't needed so only two remain. Camborne and Lerwick. The cost of running four Weather Ships ran into millions but fortunately the cost was divided and the CAA mainly picked up the tab. Not forgetting of course the development and maintenance of the radar network.

 

In my opinion the METO still offers a great service, it's pointless comparing it to the past, and it receives IMO, too much ignorant criticism some of which emanates on here.

Edited January 4, 2015 by knocker

[MR EXTREMES]

I might just re-locate to the moan thread until further notice! lol Agreed a cool down is probably likely mid month onwards but  if it just delivers some PM slush then it will be a let down. We live in hope that we can find some amplification and at least a decent northerly or ne flow. Please MJO stop faffing about, you know you want to go to phase 7 and 8?

interesting you say this nick its all getting rather frustrating just popped into the strat thread there is a chart posted up in there that has the vortex split for 24hrs then fully reformed,

so it does make me wonder weather the solar activity has or is increasing the vortex at the same time the strat warming trying to destroy the vortex rather a strange winter.

 

there seems to be a major battle taking place and if solar activity was lower i really think we would be seeing perhaps a major winter event id go as far as to say the cold heart of winter headline should really be correct not saying it wont be.

 

something is really making this hardwork.

i do feel there is something in the pipeline but how long and how much effect it will have is still way up in the air.

[knocker]

The GFS (P) run this morning can be summed up quite easily. Depressions running around the HP mainly north of the UK until HP settles in at the end. Temps around average but a fair bit above at times in Tm airstream. No sign of acute cold incursions. Just run the sequence here.

 

http://weather.graphics/gsm/ygfs_t1534_global.php

[IDO]

Those heights leaving the US were either going for a MLB or a HLB, transient or not, and this morning it's the former. It could be that the MJO (phase 7) was misdirecting the signal and this morning the CFS MJO continues trending towards the circle of death as it reaches phase 7:

 

 

No surprise as other members had pointed out that the other models were going that way as well. More GEFS on board with the build of heights in the east Atlantic sector in FI, so some sort of change continues to look likely.

 

With the mean showing a Siberian and NE Canadian vortices then there is wriggle room for maybe something to develop from a MLH:

 

 

So the next 10 days looks pretty average fare for the UK, temps slightly above as a whole, colder and milder shots: 

 

With no help from the MJO and an Major SSW on hold till at least Feb then it looks like we will have to make the best of what ever the trop throws up, be it a transient or not UK high. Things can change as the D10 charts on the GEM and ECM show, lots of differences with respect to the PV's organisation:

 

 

Though around eight days of zonality from D4 looks nailed now.

 

 

 

[mountain shadow]

Yes IDO, the potential mid month cold snowy spell has gone to be replaced by a mid latitude high.

We can but hope the Strat can deliver something for February.

[bluearmy]

Something for everyone on this mornings GEFS. From rob wanting an early start on the gardens to most of you wanting to revel in snow filled fields and parks.

What does that mean ? Well it means forget the idea that whatever is coming mid month was going to be some kind of easy 'count down to cold'. It isn't. Too many varying options to even list the possibilities.

The mean and anomolys may look ok (haven't checked) and the initial northerly type may survive a that persistent mobility to remain the favourite at mid month but for how long and what to follow it - pine cones and seaweed may be more help judging by the gefs.

This post is predicated on the GEFS. The ECM may give a different feel. Let you know shortly.

[bluearmy]

interesting you say this nick its all getting rather frustrating just popped into the strat thread there is a chart posted up in there that has the vortex split for 24hrs then fully reformed,

so it does make me wonder weather the solar activity has or is increasing the vortex at the same time the strat warming trying to destroy the vortex rather a strange winter.

 

there seems to be a major battle taking place and if solar activity was lower i really think we would be seeing perhaps a major winter event id go as far as to say the cold heart of winter headline should really be correct not saying it wont be.

 

something is really making this hardwork.

i do feel there is something in the pipeline but how long and how much effect it will have is still way up in the air.

The Berlin data is corrupt today so the chart you refer to is likely from jan 2014! There are no strat surprises at the moment.