Model Output Discussion - 14th Jan 12z Onwards

[Thunder Snow]

With the talk of warm sectors in the low for Monday onwards will this be a hill event as it stands

[nick sussex]

I think the issue this morning is how the troughing will set up over mainland Europe which will effect any cold advection into the UK from the east.

 

Part of the problem is the deeper low track, if its going to be a deeper low then its pointless hoping for a westwards correction because effectively this will just drive a lot of less cold air nw into the Continent, you then will have a poorly orientated trough.

 

The ECM is okay but the lobe of high pressure near Scandi is orientated unfavourably this needs to be aligned more ne/sw.

 

As for the GFS I wouldn't be obsessing over what it does in FI I would be more concerned with the earlier timeframe and how the Euro troughing develops and how much cold air is available to the east to tap into.

 

Overall still question marks about snow and depth of cold into next week, I'm afraid its a waiting game for the timebeing.

[i luv snow]

The METO update is from Monday...that makes 5 days

 

As per the current models, the cold actually starts to dig in during Friday, there will be some snow around over the weekend, and then the METO outlook starts from Monday. That's a good 5 to 7 days of cold, and possibly snowy, conditions. There is no point fretting about details now, things can/will change, but it will definitely be getting colder for all of us.

[Paul]

This isn't the topic to be discussing Met Office updates - please head over to the relevant place to do that.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/64157-meto-uk-further-outlook/page-93

[frosty ground]

The METO update is from Monday...that makes 5 days

The end of the period is a week a Wednesday...... The cold starts Friday........ Towards the end of the period Tuesday/Wednesday the weather will change again..... That's more than 5 days........

Plenty of toys being thrown around today especially those from IMBY. 

To many people took at face value yesterdays charts.......... as per usual.  

[BARRY]

With the talk of warm sectors in the low for Monday onwards will this be a hill event as it stands

Mondays a long way off lets sort out the weekend first

[winterof79]

The METO update is from Monday...that makes 5 days

The forecast says :

 Towards the end of the period there looks to be a possible return to more generally unsettled conditions with rain, strong winds and temperatures perhaps nearer to normal for the time of year.

 

The start of the forecast is the 19th  end of the period being the 28th so if  my maths is correct......

 

Sorry mods for off topic lets move on

Edited January 15, 2015 by winterof79

[fergieweather]

I think Fergie's post about snow Midlands north next week has dampened southerners spirits aswell

Hang on! Talking *solely* about the initial Mon-Tues evolution (albeit EC has some snow further S too): NOT the whole sequence through rest of week!!!

[SnowLover2010]

Charts certainly looking good for the North next week not so much for the South but it will be a cold period for all for sure.

[Team Jo]

Morning everyone! Just a reminder that we have a selection of Regional threads that have some great discussion going on specific to your area, so please consider if your post would be more valuable there

https://forum.netweather.tv/forum/142-regional-discussions/

[Nick F]

Please can some stop obsessing over what the Met Office says, this is a continually evolving outlook, one which will be cold for all from the weekend and throughout next week, with an increasing risk of snow for all. Where and when it snows it still up in the air for now!

 

Even the MetO can't pin down how cold and where/when it'll snow ... yet. So let's not get ahead of ourselves and just take a deep breath and see how the models evolve this cold spell in a sensible way over the next few days.

Edited January 15, 2015 by Nick F

[swfc]

Good post from nick there.For any new members id not get to hung up on one run as last nights good 18z run and this mornings comments show it was as good as it got given the nhp and the lack of a real push of heights nne.Imo if your looking for a good push from the east then the block needs to be in good situ over scan ete .Arise be it small towards iceland-svalbald will force low pressure sse so all options still on the table but a classic easterly with the great 850s as shown is a big ask atm for me.Still theres a good chance of some pockets of snow next week esp in the north and west"shower activity"and some suprises for others.The change from the 18z to this mornings oz shows the volatility currently so hanging on one run is pointless given fi is probably sun-mon imo.

[snowbob]

Posters getting hung up on tiny details

Cold is coming

Snow is coming

I'm South of Midlands and from experience knew posts like " no snow South of m4"

Would pop up.

No one knows where or when it will snow ,

Which is why we are all on here.

We would have no hobby if the weather models said snow on Monday for two hours then sleet for 15 mins.

And was accurate.

Once the cold weather sets in,snow will pop up at very short notice and it always does . Maybe here maybe not but certainly not set in stone.

[Smiler1709]

What time does the gfs 6z start rolling out please anyone?

[Dr. Astro]

What time does the gfs 6z start rolling out please anyone?

 

 

Any time now good Sir.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72242-model-output-update-times/

Edited January 15, 2015 by Dr. Astro

[SMU]

Again, the ECM mean a lot more supportive to snow in the south

With the extended eps probably split.

At this standpoint theres probably more support ( just ) for extended cold than atlantic return.

The ECM control looks bitter & unlikely to be inversion driven -

Remember we dont need 552 heights to the NE just a core of heigher heights to steer the jet....

s

[Summer Sun]

The ECM ens has the 850's down to -8 early next week and in a range of -4 to -7c after

 

 

The coldest spell of weather for possibly 2 years next week, some snow around at times next week

 

Can't ask for much more really

 

Edited January 15, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Great Plum]

For what its worth, the ECM mean keeps -5 or lower air throughout virtually all the british isles until 216 hours...

Importantly for the southerners, with the exception of parts of Cornwall, the -5 is in the English channel when the slider comes (as per the 0z mean...)

[carinthian]

Please can some stop obsessing over what the Met Office says, this is a continually evolving outlook, one which will be cold for all from the weekend and throughout next week, with an increasing risk of snow for all. Where and when it snows it still up in the air for now!

 

Even the MetO can't pin down how cold and where/when it'll snow ... yet. So let's not get ahead of ourselves and just take a deep breath and see how the models evolve this cold spell in a sensible way over the next few days.

Thanks for that Nick. As you report no place can be identified as to get or not get snow. There seems to be a number of posts saying the south is unlikely to see any. However, the snow portal service we have this morning continues to show risk of some snowfall in the SE of England and parts of Northern France on Sunday, rather than the favoured NE.  Beyond that, its just impossible to pin point the snowfall extent with the forecast occlusion next week. One thing for sure, real wintry weather is due to arrive. 

 C

[knocker]

Again, the ECM mean a lot more supportive to snow in the south

With the extended eps probably split.

At this standpoint theres probably more support ( just ) for extended cold than atlantic return.

The ECM control looks bitter & unlikely to be inversion driven -

Remember we dont need 552 heights to the NE just a core of heigher heights to steer the jet....

s

 

The extended EPS is tending towards a more dominant Azores HP leading to westerly flow albeit with temps below average  The jet ( not that strong) running NE and turning SE over the UK.

Edited January 15, 2015 by knocker

[Dr. Astro]

Without looking too far ahead, as it's very volatile, the near term is looking quite decent for parts of NW England and Northern England tomorrow and into Saturday with a cold NW Feed in terms of snow acc.

 

I can see the hills doing quite well from this:

 

 

 

[bluearmy]

Again, the ECM mean a lot more supportive to snow in the south

With the extended eps probably split.

At this standpoint theres probably more support ( just ) for extended cold than atlantic return.

The ECM control looks bitter & unlikely to be inversion driven -

Remember we dont need 552 heights to the NE just a core of heigher heights to steer the jet....

s

The sausage shaped block (quite a fat sausage and stretching from to our west way to Russia) sinks slowly and as the wind speed drops in Holland (euro trough loses its influence there) so do the temps. Low uppers so no inversion)

[Alexis]

The ECM ens has the 850's down to -8 early next week and in a range of -4 to -7c after

 

 

The coldest spell of weather for possibly 2 years next week, some snow around at times next week

 

Can't ask for much more really

 

 

That's encouraging. I think the slight worry around this morning is the raising of the 850s in the output this morning compared with last night. In my experience you need -7 at a bare minimum for lowland snow and -8 preferably. People says don't obsess over the 850s, but I've seen rain at -6C too many times to believe it.

[bluearmy]

The extended EPS is tending towards a more dominant Azores HP leading to westerly flow albeit with temps below average The jet ( not that strong) running NE and turning SE over the UK.

With the predicted week 2 low anomoly covering almost the whole of Europe and Scandi, I woudnt want to call where week 2 is likely to go except it doesn't look like a trend to mild. The odds stay with below av temps but whether that's just below av (chilly) or much below (cold) - too early to call. Suspect the spread wide and clustering poor.

The 850's quite irrelevant next week imo. Far more important will be source of airmass, flow, slackness of the set up, thickness - these will be far more contributory to DP's than uppers.

Edited January 15, 2015 by bluearmy

[chionomaniac]

With the predicted week 2 low anomoly covering almost the whole of Europe and Scandi, I woudnt want to call where week 2 is likely to go except it doesn't look like a trend to mild. The odds stay with below av temps but whether that's just below av (chilly) or much below (cold) - too early to call. Suspect the spread wide and clustering poor.

Yes -  and 6-10 day cumulative GFS anomalies good

 

 

 

11-15 days do show an increase in the Azores high - but always with that NW/SE angulation to keep us below average - so not bad because pattern could repeat.