Model Output Discussion - 23rd Jan - 12z onwards

[SMU]

GFS hinting at some snow even into the south west overnight weds with the parameters staying on the right side of marginal....

 

I will update what they show when the Hi- Res updates shortly...

 

Post that- this is a very very good chart for a multitude of reasons-

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015012512/gfsnh-0-144.png?12

 

* Easterly undercut into the Low

* Very low heights - @ 500 MB

* Thickness circa 528 DAM

* Better alignment of ridging towards Greenland!

*A possible snow event for the South & SW-
 

 

S

 

[Mucka]

GFS about as bad as possible to get after the initial cold plunge with mosts low lying areas likely the wrong side of marginal and just to rub it in it looks like going on to produce some FI deep cold. (Pass the sledge hammer)

 

 

UKMO much. much better and I would rather have that and worry about FI later than GFS jam tomorrow.

Edited January 25, 2015 by Mucka

[SMU]

Edit : UKMO 144

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2015012512/UW144-21.GIF?25-17

 

A Marked trough over the UK bringing very wintry conditions- very similar to the thundersnow event in terms of synoptics

 

S

[Day 10]

I'll take this thanks!

[Ice Day]

That's a cracking 144 from UKMO.  Would surely provide snow for many?

 

[Continental Climate]

A reasonable chart but not sure that it screams longevity 

[Harsh Climate]

Funny though how something can just pop up out of the blue in a cold set-up and deliver heavy snow.

 

168H on gfs and a little feauture develops over northern england delivering heavy snowfall

 

[EML Network]

I don't know what has changed, but all of a sudden today I can understand why the mod's and so many seasoned model watchers get frustrated by knee jerk reactions. 

 

I am clueless as to why some people are already dismissing this run as being a downgrade or saying words to that extent. 

 

we have a northerly feed and as others have stated previous to this disturbances within the pattern are now showing. 

 

it's simply a variation on a theme and theme is for a cold spell to develop something which I didn't think was going to happen a few days ago, so I need to maybe take a backseat for a bit and take some of my own advice. 

[Bristawl Si]

A reasonable chart but not sure that it screams longevity 

After this Winter so far i'll take one day of snow, down here, ta v much.

[Mucka]

Steve says good

Mucka says bad

 

Some IMBYism in my post but UKMO is so much better in comparison for cold in the reliable.

GFS is bad unless you are in the South and expect post 144 charts verify as is.

A lot of the ppn would be rain and sleet after Thursday if it verified until post 144. 

If i were in the South I wouldn't mind because I would be unlikely to benefit from the initial blast anyway but for those in low lying areas in the North who are on the verge of snowfest, a slushfest instead with the possibility of cold later isn't great.

 

Give me this

 

 

Over this every time.

 

 

And that little feature to the SW won't be there next run on GFS anyway.

 

It's all relative though, I just have a bee in my bonnet with GFS wanting to push the pattern West at the moment.

Edited January 25, 2015 by Mucka

[shaky]

The ukmo is freezing cold with snow from start to finish!!! Gfs is a beauty as well but slightly more marginal! ! Over to the ecm to make us happy:)

[Long haul to mild]

Despite some quite noticeable differences in the placement of the troughs next weekend between GFS and UKMO, both agree on very cold conditions.

While I am not going to pretend that I wouldn't prefer an Easterly, I think most of us would give our back teeth for this kind of setup when compared to some of the utter dross we have had to contend with over the last winter and a half, so I hope people don't get too hung up on the messy GFS. This is an evolving situation and there are snow chances for many coming up.

[Eugene]

Oh My, can't link this chart atm but go and check GFS 12Z T+162 hrs chart, just wonderfully slack in a light northerly flow, would give harsh night frost, fantastic chart for frost fans.

Edited January 25, 2015 by Eugene

[Jason M]

GFS would keep Fergie and his METO friends very busy. 850s marginal, but lots of other supporting factors for snow. Cold at the surface due to the winds dropping out and its notable that even within the warm sectors the thickness stays below 528 at all times despite 850s of -3c in some places. Total nightmare for forecasters!!!!

Certainly happening at the right time though. Couple of weeks later and extra solar input would have put us the wrong side of marginal and without a cold feed the 850s would have just warmed out.

[Mucka]

Despite some quite noticeable differences in the placement of the troughs next weekend between GFS and UKMO, both agree on very cold conditions.

While I am not going to pretend that I wouldn't prefer an Easterly, I think most of us would give our back teeth for this kind of setup when compared to some of the utter dross we have had to contend with over the last winter and a half, so I hope people don't get too hung up on the messy GFS. This is an evolving situation and there are snow chances for many coming up.

 

Yes this is correct but GFS has been winding me up for a couple of days and bringing out my anthropomorphic tendencies. 

Apologies for rant but GFS is still pants IMO given the possibilities.  

Edited January 25, 2015 by Mucka

[Skullzrulerz]

To be honest i think i am getting confused with what people are saying

 

We have comments like 'Freezing Cold' 'Snow' '10 Day + Cold spell'

 

Or...

 

We have comments like 'Major Downgrade' ' Atlantic Train' 'Mild Westerly returning'

 

Please everyone don't misleading people esp newbies who do not know how to read/look at models that well.

 

It goes to a extreme to just look at the models yourself to be honest.

 

Rant over and lets look at the models...

 

GFS i will say is not as good as the UKMO,ECM because

 

1. It less cold then the UKMO or the ECM

2.It does't look it going to snowfest 'south of the m4' that well. (Yes it be snowing but not 2010 style)

 

And just to say whatever if the models are to downgrade or upgrade that will be a 'cold' 'spell' or 'topper' (Depending on opinions)

 

Just enjoy the roller-coaster ride of it all.

[Ice Day]

At 210 and we're still in a cold northerly.  I would happily take either UKMO or GFS given what we've had to endure so far this and last winter.  They're both showing a significant cold spell with chances for all for some of the white stuff!  Maybe not the best for my location, but some places could do very well.

 

[cyclonic happiness]

I love the way half the folk are saying it's the wrong side of marginal and the other half saying it's the right side?

 

Can we stop worrying about where the snow is going to (or not) until we have a few more model runs please?

 

The newbies must be having a mental breakdown??? :-D.

 

I think personally that it's looking on the right side for the majority, for snow, however, that will change and maybe for the better, or maybe for the worse.

 

One thing is for sure, I trust these types of cold spells that pop up in the reliable out of nowhere, much more than chasing easterlies out in FI.

 

Good luck to us all! :-)

[Frosty.]

Midweek period brings much colder and windier weather with squally snow showers piling into the NW and some making it further south and east, yellow warnings already in force for that and will be updated tomorrow. Then it becomes briefly less cold on Friday apart from Scotland where it stays cold, however, next weekend brings much colder weather south to all other areas, it looks like a very wintry spell on the way, especially for the N & E.

[snowice]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015012512/gfsnh-0-144.png?12 Well a steps song comes to mind!"A Deeper shade of blue"lol. Edited January 25, 2015 by snowice

[-uksnow-]

Im in awe at some of the reactions in here during the 12z's;

 

- We now have the potential for wednesdays snow into the 72hrs mark, something we've struggled to do the past two winters

- Both the GFS and UKMO agree on deep roughing setting up just to our east, bringing with it low thickness and sub -0 uppers

 

 

Often in these set ups particular snow events won't be picked up until 48-72hrs in advance, so those throwing toys out the pram because the snow is missing them by 50 miles at T156 hours is silly, sit back, relax and remember the trend is our friend, and thats a trend that today is still growing stronger for snow potential across vast swathes of the UK.

 

I for one am looking forward to this spell of weather whatever it brings in rainy old Cardiff, onwards to the GEFS and the ECM...

[Hotspur62]

Been busy last 36 hours and not looked on thread since Friday afternoon and pleasantly surprised with positive trends.Have browsed through last 10-12 pages to get a jist of things and encouraging signs from Met Office for a cold spell coming,something which has been pretty much lacking this winter up until now.Also read Joe Bs Saturday update today and whilst concentrating pretty much on North America (which is really going into Freezer from now for quite a lengthy period) he talks about NH as a whole and certainly after next 7-10 days there are signs of Heights rising over Pole. This may bring further good news to NW Europe including UK and will be interesting to see if Models pick this up this week.

 

Fascinating Model watching ahead of us this week and interesting to see Model users approaching 700.If trends in next couple of days continue that 1000+ I feel will be reached  

[MR EXTREMES]

Edit : UKMO 144

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2015012512/UW144-21.GIF?25-17

 

A Marked trough over the UK bringing very wintry conditions- very similar to the thundersnow event in terms of synoptics

 

S

Indeed Steve as for the the gfs well it's good as well.

528 well south great thickness and low enough 850s upper air.

[West is Best]

This is, in my opinion, a perilous setup and I urge caution at the moment. The main reason is that the likelihood of it all getting shunted east remains high with the jet barrelling out of the US:

 

 

In the absence of upstream blocking or any significant amplification that jet is very likely to encourage further cyclogenesis. I know nothing much is showing yet, but it's only a matter of time before a jet like that generates further low pressures with our name on them.

 

I hope that's wrong but without upstream signals I'm not going to get excited by this until T24 to T36.

 

(I'll leave aside the other issue about poor uppers as it has been covered above but, yes, they do matter imho.)

[Long haul to mild]

Yes this is correct but GFS has been winding me up for a couple of days and bringing out my anthropomorphic tendencies.

Apologies for rant but GFS is still pants IMO given the possibilities.

Oh I agree, the GFS looks like an absolute dog's dinner on Fri/Sat and I certainly would prefer the UKMO solution. There always has to be one model who won't play ball in these setups and tries to muddy the waters!

Relatively speaking though it all makes a pleasant change from seeing that flaming Azores High just to the SW and a raging PV over Greenland.

Edited January 25, 2015 by Long haul to mild