Model Output Discussion - 23rd Jan - 12z onwards

[SMU]

A quick entry from me- more later

 

The ECM today portrays a scenario of getting colder & colder across the UK, I suspect the temps across the days will mean out about 3-6 at day 5, & then drop off around a degree or so each day, so by day 8 on the ECM the UK looks more like -1C to 3C across the PISTE...

Certainly upgrades in the prognosis over the last 36 hours, MAINLY due to the 2 day toppler suddenly becoming something more substanstial with the first toppler low missing the UK & the flow behind it becoming more amplified.

 

Now that things are coming into view- probably the best chance of a more widespread snow event across the UK with trough features coming down from the North-

 

Again though- not for the first time this year - it looks great for the far north- I imagine parts of scotland still have reasonable snowcover from the last event-

 

Can we get to day 10 today on the 12's & see the cold extended further with the high ridging over the top....

 

S

PS lets see of we can get a better alligned flow at 192 -216 today to drag the -10c line across the UK...

Edited January 25, 2015 by Steve Murr

[seabreeze86]

Great post from Gibby, 

 

I did my usual morning check of the charts and came across these charts

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015012500/ECH1-144.GIF?25-12

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2015012500/UN144-21.GIF?25-05

 

Not to mention the north westerly on Wednesday night

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015012500/ECU0-96.GIF?25-12

 

Dew points look good to supports snow at quite low levels and that is 4 days away.

 

These are good charts if its wintry weather you like. Peoples views on here have become to ambitious since November/December 2010 the blocking then was a rare event and a wonderful event.

 

People are being to negative in my opinion but thats just my opinion.   

Edited January 25, 2015 by seabreeze86

[Frosty.]

Agree re I F tweet, 'markedly colder' that is quite standout. For me this upcoming cold spell is a 'spell' as it isn't going anywhere fast. Snow WILL become a real problem for many and I sit and await the impending weather warnings. The models remain superb in cold outlook.

 

 

 

BFTP

It won't be long before the Amber warnings..models really firming up now on best cold spell for a few years.

[Muffelchen]

OK gonna dip my toes in here or the first time this year: my head was bitten off at Xmas when I last posted and has only just re-grown!

 

Things seem a little more civil here at the mo so will add my thoughts to the morning's discussion. I think we can all agree that come Wednesday the weather will turn a lot colder and the wind will veer to the NW and afterwards to the north. Past experience of northerly winds at this time of the year will mean that it will be dry away from coasts where there is a slight onshore flow. The wishbone effect will kick-in and much of the UK will be dry. Here, in Beverley, when there is a strong, bitter northerly wind, you can see the showers out over the N Sea drifting South in these set-ups. On the NW radar they are there and at night, when the temperature differential is at its strongest, you can often see distant lightning too (and even sprites on one occasion in the cold, clear artic air).

 

So, am I downhearted? No. The reason? This is because the flow will dry out everything and freeze the ground. These set-ups also always have troughs in the flow, if the northerly is sustained, as this one will be, then these can and will bring snow to many parts of the UK. This snow will then lie straight away and will even drift around on the cold ground surface. This is what I love: cold, dry surfaces with blowing snow. This will come with this northerly I am certain so, be patient. We are nearly there and we know the northerly is coming: the snow will inevitably follow - probably for all.

[chionomaniac]

It could be quite a cold front on Wed - though the 528 dam line is sone way behind the cold front looking at the FAX chart

 

[shaky]

Man ian fergie is ramping things up ans about time!! His latest tweet is "could be a newsworthy event after Wednesday but details tbc"!!:0

[Darren Bown]

These models look the best in years! Not only with the strength of the cold spell, but that the models seem to be in good agreement!

[EML Network]

It's going to snow in 5 days time !!...isn't it ??

[Snow Grain]

IMBY Poster alert!

Troughs and little surprises frequently spring up at short notice in Northerly air flows so I wouldn't worry too much about precipitation distribution just yet.

Not sure it can be an imby post when I don't live in the UK! I am finding though that most people who are raving about the upcoming northwesterlies are mostly northern members.

[i luv snow]

Not sure it can be an imby post when I don't live in the UK! I am finding though that most people who are raving about the upcoming northwesterlies are mostly northern members.

Which is fair enough,the north does well out of them however as winds veer to north, temps decrease and any troughs form, the models show the potential for much more widespread snow for the whole country!

[goosey007]

It's going to snow in 5 days time !!...isn't it ??

4 days +96 ? Not trying to be clever just sounds better especially when looking at precipation type charts !

[Hammerofwinter]

The Netweather forecasts don't support any optimism for the South.

[Banbury]

Man ian fergie is ramping things up ans about time!! His latest tweet is "could be a newsworthy event after Wednesday but details tbc"!!:0

where is that ??

[Summer Sun]

where is that ??

 

On tweets and replies https://twitter.com/fergieweather

 

@fergieweather  

pleasure. It's going to be an interesting and ultimately perhaps newsworthy spell after Weds for a few days but detail tbc.

Edited January 25, 2015 by Summer Sun

[chionomaniac]

Not sure it can be an imby post when I don't live in the UK! I am finding though that most people who are raving about the upcoming northwesterlies are mostly northern members.

Really? would you like to consider renaming your location?

 

Last time I looked the south coast was in the UK..........and it doesn't fare too well in Northerlies......

[i luv snow]

Really? would you like to consider renaming your location?

 

Last time I looked the south coast was in the UK..........and it doesn't fare too well in Northerlies......

I made the mistake of thinking he was from Edmonton in London, but Snow grain lives in Canada

[Jason M]

GFS 06 making a real dogs dinner out of things.

Looking through this mornings charts though, overall they look a little colder than yesterday which should be enough to tip the balance from wintry mix to snow for most.

If Fergie is indicating it maybe noteworthy then it's good enough for me as he's not one for hyperbole :-)

Edit gets there in the end and cold as well http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=192&code=0&mode=0

Edited January 25, 2015 by Jason M

[chionomaniac]

I made the mistake of thinking he was from Edmonton in London, but Snow grain lives in Canada

He has very long arms then to reach his computer in the UK......

[mountsbaysnow]

4 days +96 ? Not trying to be clever just sounds better especially when looking at precipation type charts !

argh don't you dare skip past west cornwall again snow

[IDO]

Again as we near the event and GFS sends a low south from D6, the uppers get washed out and they become the wrong side of marginal for many for 36 hours, of course coinciding with the precipitation:

 

 

 

But potential as the low clears for back edge snow for the south at the moment, but its very hit and miss. This has been the signal from yesterday by the GFS and it is a question whether ECM colder uppers are right, as it looks like the GFS is making it a messy setup.

[tvh3382]

Agree re I F tweet, 'markedly colder' that is quite standout. For me this upcoming cold spell is a 'spell' as it isn't going anywhere fast. Snow WILL become a real problem for many and I sit and await the impending weather warnings. The models remain superb in cold outlook.

 

 

 

BFTP

The Met Office have now issued warnings for Wednesday and Thursday. Let the fun begin!

[stratty]

A white blanket starts to be unrolled over the country...........

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

Yellow Warning of Snow now issued by the Met Office for Northwestern areas on Wednesday...they must be confident.

As I said (ranted) last night, it is going to get colder from midweek onwards and it is now becoming clear (using the ECM as an example) that this projected cold spell is being extended day by day.

That ECM 240 chart does not look like the cold is going anywhere soon and even the more progressive runs don't bring in the Atlantic to any major extent with high pressure more likely to be in charge than deep lows piling in from the Atlantic.

It actually seems to me that this could be the most severe spell for a few years considering it is coinciding with the coldest part of winter.

It is therefore all the more surprising that there has been so much negativity on here regarding the upcoming spell, particularly as it has arrived at fairly short notice across all of the models with almost no drama or downgrades!

Yes snow is not guaranteed for everyone but this nwxt week or so will give conditions that are ripe for our best shot at a nationwide snow event for a long long time!

[Snow Grain]

Really? would you like to consider renaming your location?

 

Last time I looked the south coast was in the UK..........and it doesn't fare too well in Northerlies......

lol, I didn't think Edmonton, London was on the south coast, correct me if I am wrong!

[offerman]

Can someone help explain a little for a complete novice.

Recently there were charts for extrem cold and showing 3 polar lows. While this didn't materialise there was cold over the country and heavy snow in the North. Here where I live we were occasionally under -5 850 but still had cold rain even at elevation.

These next runs on late Wednesday Thrusday onward show the same temps for where I live in Somerset, yet many are now saying snow. What's the difference between the recent cold spell to this one as temps all look the same as then for my part of the world.

Also I note much coming down from the North I would of thought would of been much colder at this time of the year.

Many thanks for any explanations to the difference this time round.