Southeast England & East Anglia - Weather Chat >> 1st March Onwards

[Harps]

Great forecast from Tomasz Schafernaker just now, chance of 30C+ from Tuesday right through to the weekend in London with plenty of thunderstorms shown on the map from Wednesday onwards.

Been a very benign and forgettable year so far as a weather enthusiast so it's great to finally have a bit of interesting weather to look forward to

[Blessed Weather]

Temperature here reached 19.8C earlier this morning, then the rain arrived (very light and patchy with 0.6mm so far) and it's pulled the temp down to 18.2C currently. Probably another hour or two of this before it clears through. Hopefully some sun later will cheer things up and raise the temp again.

 

As to be expected, the chopping and changing of storm likelihood and intensity next week is in full swing and happening on a run-to-run basis. Look at the difference between the overnight GFS 00Z run and this mornings 06Z run for next Saturday 4th July midday. A notable downgrading of potential in the blink of eye!

 

00Z    06Z 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Wouldnt look at charts that far out wait till Tuesday

[Methuselah]

Temperature here reached 19.8C earlier this morning, then the rain arrived (very light and patchy with 0.6mm so far) and it's pulled the temp down to 18.2C currently. Probably another hour or two of this before it clears through. Hopefully some sun later will cheer things up and raise the temp again.

 

As to be expected, the chopping and changing of storm likelihood and intensity next week is in full swing and happening on a run-to-run basis. Look at the difference between the overnight GFS 00Z run and this mornings 06Z run for next Saturday 4th July midday. A notable downgrading of potential in the blink of eye!

 

00Z  Sun 00Z for Sat 04Jul 12.00 ukcapeli.png  06Z  Sun 06Z for Sat 04Jul 12.00 ukcapeli.png

Could be a difference in timing? Of the front, not the model!

[Blessed Weather]

You're absolutely right Surrey - but I just can't help myself. It's the fun of the chase!

Ed - running the GFS sequence again, it does indeed look as if the front moves through 12 hours earlier on the 06Z. Didn't spot that. That in itself is quite an inter-run adjustment, but in fairness, it is 6 days away!

Anyway, thanks for the comments guys!

 

Just received this Heat Advisory from the Met Office:

 

Forecast Issued on Sunday, 28 June 2015 at 12:33
Heat Health Watch 
Level 2 - Alert and Readiness  

There is an 80 % probability of heatwave conditions between 1200 on Tuesday and 0600 on Thursday in parts of England.  

 

Some interesting notes on where will be impacted most, as well why some areas will have the worse of the heat moderated:

 

[lassie23]

The BBC weather features department like their stupid graphics, don't they? http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/33298543 What next, the affects of a Cornetto on the human body in hot weather. Sunny here 22c, lucky the humidity is lower otherwise I might start glowing red and over heat.

Edited June 28, 2015 by lassie23

[h2005__uk__]

The BBC weather features department like their stupid graphics, don't they? http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/33298543 What next, the affects of a Cornetto on the human body in hot weather. Sunny here 22c, lucky the humidity is lower otherwise I might start glowing red and over heat.

 

I thought it was a good explanation of how humidity affects the body.

[lassie23]

I thought it was a good explanation of how humidity affects the body.

I suppose it did have a purpose

[Methuselah]

I thought it was a good explanation of how humidity affects the body.

I agree: that's just what I was struggling to explain, to my grandson, the other day. Now I can show him a link!

[stainesbloke]

The BBC weather features department like their stupid graphics, don't they? http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/33298543 What next, the affects of a Cornetto on the human body in hot weather. Sunny here 22c, lucky the humidity is lower otherwise I might start glowing red and over heat.

Sunny? Yeah the sun is just so blinding here near London lol, in that lovely blue sky....oh wait, that was yesterday?.

Cloudy all day so far with some moderately heavy rain earlier, not enough to be of use sadly. Feeling decidedly chilly at 20C after yesterday's pleasant warmth.

Edited June 28, 2015 by stainesbloke

[lassie23]

Sunny? Yeah the sun is just so blinding here near London lol, in that lovely blue sky....oh wait, that was yesterday?.

Cloudy all day so far with some moderately heavy rain earlier, not enough to be of use sadly. Feeling cool at 20C after such a nice day yesterday.

That Staines murk looks like it is invading sunny, tropical Harrow. I bet it all came from hell (Slough) where it is cloudy 24/7. Still 21.8c despite the increase in cloud.

[stainesbloke]

That Staines murk looks like it is invading sunny, tropical Harrow. I bet it all came from hell (Slough) where it is cloudy 24/7. Still 21.8c despite the increase in cloud.

Tropic Harrow?! I though that club was in Ruislip? Yes, no sign of sun here and all the crappy cloud is not producing anything useful, as is usual in the wonderful UK!

[lassie23]

Tropic Harrow?! I though that club was in Ruislip? Yes, no sign of sun here and all the crappy cloud is not producing anything useful, as is usual in the wonderful UK!

The Harrow sun is doing its best to shine through the Staines murk Yes Tropic Harrow is in posh Ruislip. John Otway   (who) and the Estrellas (don't all queue up at once) are playing there next month. 20c now, boooooo, go back to Stains you horrible cloud.   First real cloudy day of the month here.

[Daniel*]

Back in London and it is stifling in my house all windows are open think a Salad for tonight.

[ThunderBuddy21]

What are we looking at in terms of night time temperatures? I cant stand hot weather and am worrying how my toddlers going to cope too, off to buy lots of ice pops I think!

[Daniel*]

What are we looking at in terms of night time temperatures? I cant stand hot weather and am worrying how my toddlers going to cope too, off to buy lots of ice pops I think!

Based on GFS 12z this is as low as it goes through the week in chronological order.

High teens into low 20's is going to be unpleasant

Edited June 28, 2015 by Daniel*

[Blessed Weather]

What are we looking at in terms of night time temperatures? I cant stand hot weather and am worrying how my toddlers going to cope too, off to buy lots of ice pops I think!

 

As Daniel's post says TB21, some uncomfortable night time temps coming up.  My recommendation is to buy a fan and leave it on overnight, wafting gently in the direction of the bed. Make sure it has a gentle setting - don't want a gale blowing over you! Worth every penny!

 

Edit: Get to the shops quick. Finding a shop with fans still in stock will be as rare as hens teeth by Thurs!!

Edited June 28, 2015 by Blessed Weather

[Captain Shortwave]

A bit all over the place today, the morning was fairly warm and humid before the rain arrived, then the temperatures dropped before rising to 21C late afternoon when the sun came out.

Well from here onwards any rain will likely come from the south and possibly be thundery. Bring on the heat.

[Captain Shortwave]

So time for the week ahead forecast

Tomorrow - Fine and dry with long sunny spells with just some fair weather ground building here and there.

Temperatures

22-25C, cooler on the coast with afternoon sea breezes. 

 

Tuesday - Another fine day with long sunny spells, the 850s will be rising as the day progresses (the 16C isotherm reaching the south by late afternoon)

Temperatures

25-28C, though the temperatures might be undercooked a little to be honest (30C is possible)

 

Wednesday - A messier day, there shouldn't be any cloud coming up from the south (maybe some well broken stuff), so there will be long sunny periods though cloud could build inland to produce some isolated thundery downpours. The risk increases as we head into the evening.

Temperatures

29-33C, maybe a shade higher, my personal bet is 34C at Heathrow.

 

Thursday - A messy day with hot air to the east and cooler Atlantic air to the west with a new ridge building northwards. This means there could be a front running in the north sea. So the risk of thunderstorms in the east with the sunniest weather in the west. This could change dramatically though.

Temperatures

25-29C

 

Friday

This one looks easier, a fine and sunny day for the most part, hot too. Later a warm front will push northwards and this could bring the risk of thundery rain. Uncertainty reigns on how this will pan out though (thunderstorm potential and the area which could be affected by the warm sector of this system, the ECM shows the south east in some very hot air on Saturday whilst others clear the cold front fairly quickly during the early hours of Saturday)

Temperatures

28-31C

 

That is all, enjoy the heat and the thundery possibilities it could bring.

[alexisj9]

wow didn't expect this evening to be humid already, and temp 15 still. 90% humidity, feeling quite sticky. Better get used to it this week I guess.

[Daniel*]

Thanks Captain for the overview John Pike used to be the man but he's decided to go elsewhere....

[Blessed Weather]

Beautiful start here and a refreshing 15C, so I've thrown open all the doors and windows to fill the house with cool air! Might be the last time I see a minimum temp like that for the rest of the week!

 

I'm really looking forward to the coming week. Whatever happens, for us weather enthusiasts it's going to be packed full of... umm... weather!!

Lot's of model watching, radar checking and plenty for us to discuss on the Forum!   Whoopee!!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

17 degrees now at Heathrow PHOAR! 

[alexisj9]

17 degrees here but feels much hotter. got a few small bits of cumulus floating about and loads of contrails just spreading out.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

London city Airport @ 20 degrees 20 minutes ago.. DAMN!