Southeast England & East Anglia - Weather Chat >> 1st March Onwards

[Methuselah]

This ought  to bring some cheer to proceedings: http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/

 

All our favourite words are used!  

Edited June 29, 2015 by Ed Stone

[clark3r]

Got my short sleeve shirts ready for work! Going to be some hot and sticky days! And warm nights coming up! This weather reminds me of 2003 when the heat kept coming back! Got feeling records are going to be broken this month or next month! Looking forward to the heat!

[lassie23]

Just 12 hours to go and then it's 4 days of the 5 S's in Eastbourne...Sun, sea, sand, getting sloshed and storms!!

Hope you and your family have a great time AJ. Don't forget the sunblock. Hope you will be posting whilst over the limit. Those types of posts always seem to be the best on net weather. 22.6c in the shade.

[Blessed Weather]

The NMM (5km) model showing Wed afternoon and evening have the ingredients for some decent storms in our Region.

 

14.00 hours: moderate values of CAPE and LI of -7 so it's possible that moderate storms could break out, particularly Kent and Sussex:

 

 

17.00 hours: high values of CAPE and LI of -10 so the potential for more widespread and possibly severe storms in particular for Kent, Sussex, Surrey, London, Middlesex, Bucks, Bedford and Northants:

 

 

19.00 hours: more widespread high values of CAPE and LI peaking at -12. In theory, storm potential at it's peak:

 

 

Looking forward to seeing how this develops over the next 48 hours.

 

[nicol@]

I have to decide by Wednesday morning if I will go down to East London as planned that day or stay in MK for the night.

All depending on if thundery showers are on the cards (I want to be where they are and yes I know they are hard to predict).

What do you think?

[Blessed Weather]

Bet you wont have the heating on for a while now, lol...

 

I think you're on a safe bet there seaside! From the freezer to the oven in only two weeks! I hope we do get a good July - after a very cool May and most of June I think we deserve it!   

[Blessed Weather]

I have to decide by Wednesday morning if I will go down to East London as planned that day or stay in MK for the night.

All depending on if thundery showers are on the cards (I want to be where they are and yes I know they are hard to predict).

What do you think?

 

From the NMM charts I posted I would think MK the better location for a possible storm on Weds. If it were West London you were heading that would be a different matter. Be interesting to hear what other members think.

[Captain Shortwave]

Very difficult to determine where will get the storms, they look rather scattered at the moment on Wednesday so I expect localised thunderstorms in the west of our region, I think Blessed weather might be on the money on the location of the highest risk, though I might fancy my chances at work in Chatteris though. NMM going for 34C just to the north west of London.

Chart courtesy of netweather extra 

The biggest risk of thunderstorms seems to be Wednesday night in Thursday as the cold front pushes east with storms developing over France on the boundary line. The fax chart for Thursday is a mess with the front straddling the region, as such determining the conditions might be difficult, especially as if any sunny periods develop then it could again turn hot (much warmer than the 24/25C currently being predicted).

Friday night might also present a chance for thunderstorms as a warm front pushes north.

Edited June 29, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[Neilsouth]

When is the really humid air supposed to be coming in? As at the moment it's not to bad with the window open

 

[Mark wheeler]

What happened to the bbc week ahead forecast grr . Cheeky monkeys even said at the end every night 21:55.

[Captain Shortwave]

What happened to the bbc week ahead forecast grr . Cheeky monkeys even said at the end every night 21:55.

They can be found on the bbc weather website still

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/33321934

[Mark wheeler]

They can be found on the bbc weather website still

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/33321934[/quote

Nice one thanks

[NO LONGER POSTING]

14.4 at Heathrow and 16 at London city cooler outside these with Farnborough at 13

Going for 30-31 around West London area into London more than Heathrow

[NO LONGER POSTING]

wow... 16 now at Heathrow and 18 at London city we were at these temps at 9-10am yesterday 

Edited June 30, 2015 by Surrey

[alexisj9]

17 is the temp here so far. Humid, not a cloud in the sky, no wind.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

18 now in central London sky rocketing! 

 

EDIT 19**** :o

Edited June 30, 2015 by Surrey

[nicol@]

21 in MK, gone up a degree in 10 mins.

[Blessed Weather]

Wall to wall sunshine and warmth. Should be a good one. 18.1C here at 08.00.

 

Carol on the beeb very low-key about thunderstorm potential tomorrow, showing a few small storms moving up "largely in the west of the country.... but a few could break out further east and effect Wimbledon". Look East forecast had no mention at all for EA. Despite this morning's CAPE & LI charts showing loads of potential (as per last night's charts) the precipitation charts from both NMM (5km) and Euro4 confirm that our Region is not in the firing line. (Interesting that NMM has the heaviest precipitation in the NW but the Euro4 in the NE).

 

NMM Wed 18.00   Euro4 18.00

 

Edit: Wed added. Helps to mention the day you are talking about!

Edited June 30, 2015 by Blessed Weather

[suffolkboy_]

Already 20.3C here, clear blue sky and sunshine already feeling strong.

 

The latest MetOffice East of England forecast is fantastic. Carlsberg don't make summer forecasts, but if they did.....

 

Regional forecast for East of England

Dry, sunny and very warm.

Today:

Dry with long periods of strong sunshine. Generally becoming very warm, but it will be cooler along the coast due to the southeasterly breeze, which gradually strengthens. Maximum Temperature 27°C.

Tonight:

Staying breezy, particularly along the coast, and also dry. Despite the long clear periods it will remain warm or very warm. Minimum Temperature 16°C.

Wednesday:

Breezy, especially along the coast, and also becoming very warm or hot. Staying dry, with long periods of strong sunshine. Maximum Temperature 29°C.

Outlook for Thursday to Saturday:

Chance of thunderstorms Thursday, and especially Friday night when they could become locally severe. Temperatures generally warm or very warm, locally hot Thursday. Saturday drier and fresher conditions arrive.

Updated at: 0452 on Tue 30 Jun 2015

[VillagePlank]

Interesting weather, tomorrow: here's the skew-t for Heathrow,

 

 

A moderately convective atmosphere (K=33) leads to widely scattered severe storms (TT=53) A hot to very hot day should overcome a small cap (CIN=57) leading to very quick development. Where storms do form, they are likely to have hail and frequent lightning (CAPE=1330) completely silly amounts of rain (PW=3.83) and are likely to be long lived (DP=18.7) in an extremely unstable (yes, that's right) atmosphere (LI=-8 ) Not much shear, so, as always, the trigger is key, which looks to be onshore breezes or insolation.

 

Happy storm watching!

 

Edited June 30, 2015 by VillagePlank

[alexisj9]

Just reached 19 here.

[Daniel*]

Plume is here it feels hot it must be 21C at the very least and it's only half 9.

Edited June 30, 2015 by Daniel*

[NO LONGER POSTING]

So at 10:22 the latest temps:

Heathrow: 23

City airport: 24

Charlwood 20

Farnborough 22

Astonishing given the time world class

[Daniel*]

Oh boy it is warming up roughly 25c heat is beginning to take root.

[Steve C]

Question for more knowledgeable people.

 

NMM has great CAPE, LI over us tomorrow evening.

 

 

CIN doesn't look a massive issue.

 

Precipitable water is good.

 

The TT Index is good.

 

 

And yet the thunderstorm potential for our area is not looking good. Convective precipitation forecast (as good as it gets) shown.

 

 

What is missing? (both from the forecast and my knowledge) Is it a forcing element?