Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2015.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Just dreadful charts arm. Really frustrates me when it's pretty my h just the UK stuck in this cool relentless Nw'ly flow whilst the rest of Europe is all warmer. It just looks like the UK is purposely targeted!

Think we can write the next two weeks off really. It's clear any pressure rises are being pushed back. More cloudy, damp, cool dross to come. I have a feeling El Niño is to blame for Northern blocking and the flat or circular highs stuck in the Atlantic and/or the pattern over America. If so a very cool and wet summer may lie ahead. That is certainly not me writing summer off at all though!!!!

La Niña prevailed through 2010 and provided the two most boring summers one could wish for 2010/11. El Niño in my opinion would be my preferred choice for a punt at a good summer.

[049balt]

The models so far today are all showing a big change to warmer and settled conditions spreading from the south during the second half of next week onwards, this is now reinforced by another very encouraging met office update which continues to firm up on a warm anticyclonic outlook and also very warm and humid at times, especially in the south with a chance of thundery outbreaks pushing up from the continent.

The Met office have been sitting on the fence unlike you and me, we showed the doubters! Flaming June here we come.

[coldcomfort]

The Met office have been sitting on the fence unlike you and me, we showed the doubters! Flaming June here we come.

Chickens, eggs and hatched spring to mind here....

When in the 8-9 day range Flaming June could quite easily switch to Flaming Awful, just as Ranging Beasterlies morph into Whimpering Westerlies in Winter.....steady as she goes Captain! 

[049balt]

Chickens, eggs and hatched spring to mind here....

When in the 8-9 day range Flaming June could quite easily switch to Flaming Awful, just as Ranging Beasterlies morph into Whimpering Westerlies in Winter.....steady as she goes Captain! 

The fact is Frosty and I were right, and I am just a simple farmer!!

[coldcomfort]

The fact is Frosty and I were right, and I am just a simple farmer!!

Not sure you can claim to be right when any potential change is over a week away, but I'd like to think you will be - and I'm just simple hotelier, desperate for some decent summer weather to placate the guests who have moaned at me all month about how poor it's been.

Edited May 26, 2015 by coldcomfort

[049balt]

Not sure you can claim to be right when any potential change is over a week away, but I'd like to think you will be - and I'm just simple hotelier, desperate for some decent summer weather to placate the guests who have moaned at me all month about how poor it's been.

It fascinating how the weather impacts the lives of so many, farmers and hoteliers especially.

[knocker]

 

The Met office have been sitting on the fence unlike you and me, we showed the doubters! Flaming June here we come.

 

The METO have issued a statement categorically denying that approaches have been made to some of the stars in the other thread. However social media is still awash with speculation.

[Gael_Force]

Chickens, eggs and hatched spring to mind here....

When in the 8-9 day range Flaming June could quite easily switch to Flaming Awful, just as Ranging Beasterlies morph into Whimpering Westerlies in Winter.....steady as she goes Captain! 

Wise words! I hope we are not seeing another false dawn like we did at the end of April.

 

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?jour=30&mois=4&annee=2015&heure=12&archive=1&mode=0&ech=204&runpara=0&carte=0#

[049balt]

The METO have issued a statement categorically denying that approaches have been made to some of the stars in the other thread. However social media is still awash with speculation.

ken Ring is the man they need to approach!

[summer blizzard]

Well done Frosty and co.. If the high sticks around more than a few days.

[Bradowl]

It will probably be 3 nice days, then bang!!! Thunderstorms and then cooling down to average conditions for UK. 

[ribster]

Could reach 20 odd degrees next week, when's the last time that happened in June? 

[Thundery wintry showers]

There is a possibility of a reversal of the usual NW-SE split setting up as we head towards the second week of June, with north-easterly winds bringing grey, drizzly and fairly cool conditions to eastern, central and southern England, especially near to the North Sea, but generally warm and sunny conditions elsewhere.  All subject to revision at this stage of course.

Edited May 28, 2015 by Thundery wintry showers

[Bradowl]

Looking good for later next week though being a week away things could still change, we've still got some wet and windy weather to get through first too. 

[stainesbloke]

Am very much hoping this much-hyped warmer weather is on the way. I'll be very happy to see the back of this horrid, cold and too cloudy NW flow. Yes, there have been a few sunnier days dotted about but too few, and a constant, nagging wind for weeks on end. Time for some heat please! I'm bored of being cold.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

As probably expected, the models trending towards unsettled/low pressure for next weekend, fantasy charts before really, was FI, low pressure stinks but is miles more common than high, we are in the UK

[William of Walworth]

Going to have to slap down that poost from ilikethesnow there :

 

No, they are not 'trending' towards low pressure/unsettled next weekend! Not all of them, and not UK-wide.

 

Most are still showing at least a reasonable degree of High Pressure influence, especially towards the South.

 

Chances of that most recent UKMO (showing a more nearby trough than many would like) being a rogue? Check future runs for possibly more positive changes, I'd say.

Edited May 29, 2015 by William of Walworth

[Bradowl]

I'm sticking by my 3 nice days and a thunderstorm prediction I made earlier in week. 

[mushymanrob]

Going to have to slap down that poost from ilikethesnow there :

 

No, they are not 'trending' towards low pressure/unsettled next weekend! Not all of them, and not UK-wide.

 

Most are still showing at least a reasonable degree of High Pressure influence, especially towards the South.

 

Chances of that most recent UKMO (showing a more nearby trough than many would like) being a rogue? Check future runs for possibly more positive changes, I'd say.

 

fully agree... i dont know what charts some people are looking at, or taking one in isolation. the ops are all going for some sort of pressure rise, and warmth if not heat. if anybody thinks there will be wall to wall sunshine and heat for the next 2 weeks starting on the 3rd.... they are bonkers!

we are on the cusp of seeing the best start to june for many years... with a lot of fine settled warm weather around.

[mushymanrob]

... true the northwesterly has been rather nagging, but sometimes its brought us some great air quality, fresh, pleasant, ... we are infor some humid stuff in the near future.

[stainesbloke]

😄

[cheeky_monkey]

British summers are crap for all the wrong reasons..rarely do we get ideal summer conditions..which to me is clear blue sunny skies 23-25c low humidity and a light breeze.

[stainesbloke]

British summers are crap for all the wrong reasons..rarely do we get ideal summer conditions..which to me is clear blue sunny skies 23-25c low humidity and a light breeze.

Yes, quite agree. It doesn't have to be very hot, 23-25C is just lovely with sunny skies and light winds. We can but hope lol!

[stainesbloke]

It does indeed look like a bit of a stonker might be in the offing. Let us pray!      

Our Father and Mother

Who art in model heaven

Give us this day some stonking theoretical output

Which will verify as shown

Let lapse rates increase

And CAPE values explode

As heat from the South

Wafts over our abode

Forgive us our moaning

But Spring has been s h * t

So cloudy and windy and oft'

Colder than a witches tit

Lead us not into despair

But deliver us from the hateful Atlantic

For thine is the heatwave and the 20C isotherm

Forever and ever, and let it come quick!

[knocker]

Virologists are becoming increasingly concerned that the winter 'snowfest' virus has mutated and can now survive in summer temperatures in the mid 30c.