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Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2015.

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mushymanrob Maestro

mushymanrob

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Posted

. There is no way these northerlies will prevail for long .

You werent around in 1975 then... 3 months, all spring, of recurring northerlies or northerly sourced air.

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cheese Veteran

cheese

Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
Posted (edited)

You werent around in 1975 then... 3 months, all spring, of recurring northerlies or northerly sourced air.

You're very old. :p

 

But seriously, I suppose a few northerly blasts are to be expected considering it's still only April. Even in May, single-figure highs are not that unusual up here, they occur maybe once or twice a month. Our last air frost typically occurs in May as well.

 

If it's sunny, then I won't be bothered as much, but if it's overcast and damp, then I'll be pretty miffed. Nothing worse.

Edited by cheese
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Costa Del Fal Experienced

Costa Del Fal

Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
Posted

You werent around in 1975 then... 3 months, all spring, of recurring northerlies or northerly sourced air.

Indeed I wasn't here in 1975. Key point is that unlike some will try and make us believe, this isn't the trend to a rubbish summer.

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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted

1975 I've heard by many was a terrific summer, infact ranking as one of the best. 1976 just stole the limelight I guess!

In my lifetime, I seem to remember the good summers often came after diabolical weather in April or May. I'm sure 2006 was a good example.

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mushymanrob Maestro

mushymanrob

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Posted

1975 I've heard by many was a terrific summer, infact ranking as one of the best. 1976 just stole the limelight I guess!

In my lifetime, I seem to remember the good summers often came after diabolical weather in April or May. I'm sure 2006 was a good example.

 

the famous year when we had snow in the first few days of june, but by the weeks end the blocking high that had sat to our west since early march, shifted to sit to our east... hot summer from june into august followed.

76's drought came on the back of a dry 75, with little rain through the winter 75-6 too after a hot dry summer (75) and cold dry spring. 76 success had alot to owe to 75.

 

spring 83 was cold and wet..... summer 83 was hot and dry

spring 03 was warm and dry... summer 03 was ..... yep... hot and dry! 

 

spring 75 was cold and dry.... spring 76 was warm and dry... both had great summers... so no correlation between weather types in spring to summer.

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summer blizzard Maestro

summer blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Posted

1975 I've heard by many was a terrific summer, infact ranking as one of the best. 1976 just stole the limelight I guess!

In my lifetime, I seem to remember the good summers often came after diabolical weather in April or May. I'm sure 2006 was a good example.

 

The biggest thing i've noticed is that hot summers usually (even if the months as a whole are average) display unusual heat in April or May. 2005 had a very warm Mid-June to mid-July period (perhaps Mr Data has the CET) and in May saw 32.4C on the 28th. 2006 saw the latest day to reach 20C in some time but also the earliest to reach a temperature since 1995. 2003 saw 27C in April. 1995 saw more than one unusual hot spell in spring.

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mushymanrob Maestro

mushymanrob

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Posted

Wintry blast on the way, look at these early morning minimum temps on the Gfs 0z.. Brrrrrrrrr

 

those charts are horrific.... i cant imagine the damage to wildlife frosts like that would bring. fledgling chicks will die, insects killed, plants damaged/killed. great.

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Nights King Accomplished

Nights King

Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
Posted

those charts are horrific.... i cant imagine the damage to wildlife frosts like that would bring. fledgling chicks will die, insects killed, plants damaged/killed. great.

 

Looks excellent for business though... Warm spell has encouraged people to plant out summer bedding early then 2 weeks later they have to buy it all again.  :D

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Steve C Accomplished

Steve C

Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
Posted

Looks excellent for business though... Warm spell has encouraged people to plant out summer bedding early then 2 weeks later they have to buy it all again.  :D

 

I guess you're in that business then? Would love your customers to read this...

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Gael_Force Accomplished

Gael_Force

Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
Posted (edited)

those charts are horrific.... i cant imagine the damage to wildlife frosts like that would bring. fledgling chicks will die, insects killed, plants damaged/killed. great.

Agree with that. How many times has this happened in recent Springs where insect pollinators and the blossom they feed on have been damaged through topsy turvy weather patterns?

 

The synoptics in themselves are not that unusual but the timing, after such exceptional early warmth, is most unfortunate.

 

An edit after reading BFTV's post in the CET thread - perhaps more unusual than some seem to think!

 

 

An exceptionally cold final 4 days forecast brings the likely finishing range before corrections down to 8.7C to 9.2C, and 8.3C to 9.2C after corrections.
Those final 4 days (4.7C average), if forecast accurately, would be the coldest since 1857 (4.3C average).
Edited by Gael_Force
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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted

those charts are horrific.... i cant imagine the damage to wildlife frosts like that would bring. fledgling chicks will die, insects killed, plants damaged/killed. great.

 

agree they are, I am a snow fan, and low levels south will not see any, snowfest for Buxton, and hilly areas in north/west

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cheese Veteran

cheese

Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
Posted (edited)

Too late for snow - what's the point now? Nearly May - practically summer by that point. No need for cold at all. Just useless and serves no purpose whatsoever.

Edited by cheese
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summer blizzard Maestro

summer blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Posted

As somebody that likes spring warmth more than summer (lower humidity in the main) this is a tad annoying.

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mushymanrob Maestro

mushymanrob

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Posted

Im not moaning about it getting cooler, it happens and the gloriousdays weve had are in the bank. But its the possible severity of the frosts that concerns me. Ive seen it before in 81 and 84 where just four days of cold and wet killed clutches of eggs/fledgelings.

Its clear though that the models dont really have much of a clue other then itll get colder and wetter...

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cheese Veteran

cheese

Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
Posted

Im not moaning about it getting cooler, it happens and the gloriousdays weve had are in the bank. But its the possible severity of the frosts that concerns me. Ive seen it before in 81 and 84 where just four days of cold and wet killed clutches of eggs/fledgelings.

Its clear though that the models dont really have much of a clue other then itll get colder and wetter...

Well that's understandable - though I don't do gardening so it's not much of a concern for me. Still, a few frosts in late April and early May isn't unusual. We often get to around -1C in early May, as our last frost of the year.

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Milhouse Seasoned

Milhouse

Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
Posted

those charts are horrific.... i cant imagine the damage to wildlife frosts like that would bring. fledgling chicks will die, insects killed, plants damaged/killed. great.

 

Good grief im camping outside in a valley in Derbyshire from Thursday night till Monday. Cant be doing with minus temperatures :closedeyes:

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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted

Current charts are absolutely depressing and diabolical!!

On the plus side, at least it isn't happening in mid June or July and the chance is there for a big turnaround come summer. Can only hope!

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Costa Del Fal Experienced

Costa Del Fal

Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
Posted

Also one pleasing thing is that it seems most of central and Western Europe will share our misery. Hate it when it's just the UK missing out on the warmth. Saying that we will still have some of the worst weather.

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DAVID SNOW Veteran

DAVID SNOW

Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
Posted

I suspect I'm having a bad dream as the other thread seems to have switched into winter mode. Be afraid, be very afraid.

 

Seeing 'probably' the death throes, until resurrection in November,seems  fair enough to me.........

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mushymanrob Maestro

mushymanrob

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Posted

Luckily charts seem to be trending towards ridging Azores high in by the end of next week so should turn sunnier at least.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2162.gif

 

anomalies arent yet showing anything thatll alow much of a pressure build, until they do, ill not be getting any hopes up :(

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Blessed Weather Maestro

Blessed Weather

Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
Posted

Well in the space of 36 hours ECM has gone from a horror chart for the start of the May Bank Holiday to one that gives at least some hope there'll be some reasonable weather over the weekend. 

 

0z on Wed 22nd for Fri 1st May: post-20040-0-11997400-1429819059_thumb.g  12z on Thur 23rd for Fri 1st May: post-20040-0-49641800-1429819066_thumb.g

 

But meanwhile the GFS shows a totally different synoptic set-up. Whilst warmer, it's much wetter.

 

post-20040-0-78158600-1429819517_thumb.p  post-20040-0-36083200-1429819529_thumb.p

 

Looking at the anomaly charts, with no sign of a positive height anomaly over the UK, my money is on the GFS with the Azores high easing in to the south and a westerly flow. 

 

post-20040-0-70389300-1429819536_thumb.g

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